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41.
Morgan S. Philip Botev Nikolai Chen Renbao Huang Jianping 《Population research and policy review》1999,18(4):339-356
The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depending upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registration data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Statistics 1974–1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very large and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast using these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racial differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between theses two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Reasons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimates of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing. 相似文献
42.
Theory and Society - 相似文献
43.
Public perceptions of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other low‐carbon electricity‐generating technologies may affect the feasibility of their widespread deployment. We asked a diverse sample of 60 participants recruited from community groups in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to rank 10 technologies (e.g., coal with CCS, natural gas, nuclear, various renewables, and energy efficiency), and seven realistic low‐carbon portfolios composed of these technologies, after receiving comprehensive and carefully balanced materials that explained the costs and benefits of each technology. Rankings were obtained in small group settings as well as individually before and after the group discussions. The ranking exercise asked participants to assume that the U.S. Congress had mandated a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to be built in the future. Overall, rankings suggest that participants favored energy efficiency, followed by nuclear power, integrated gasification combined‐cycle coal with CCS and wind. The most preferred portfolio also included these technologies. We find that these informed members of the general public preferred diverse portfolios that contained CCS and nuclear over alternatives once they fully understood the benefits, cost, and limitations of each. The materials and approach developed for this study may also have value in educating members of the general public about the challenges of achieving a low‐carbon energy future. 相似文献
44.
Travis William Reynolds Ann Bostrom Daniel Read M. Granger Morgan 《Risk analysis》2010,30(10):1520-1538
In 1992, a mental‐models‐based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well‐educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general “good environmental practices” and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels. 相似文献
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Evaluating Risk Communications: Completing and Correcting Mental Models of Hazardous Processes, Part II 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We propose a decision-analytic framework, called the mental models approach , for evaluating the impact of risk communications. It employs multiple evaluation methods, including think-aloud protocol analysis, problem solving, and a true-false test that allows respondents to express uncertainty about their answers. The approach is illustrated in empirical comparisons of three brochures about indoor radon. 相似文献
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A constrained optimisation theory or choice in concurrent schedules of reinforcement is presented. The theory posits that subjects evaluate both reinforcement rates and the work rates required to produce them and select the most highly valued combination. The chosen reinforcement rate is obtained by efficiently allocating work rate across schedules. The theory provides a unified explanation for maximisation of the overall reinforcement rate, the law of least effort, choice under Conc FR FR, Conc VR VR. Conc VI VI and Conc VI VR schedules, and choice of work rate. 相似文献
50.
James Shanahan M.S. Michael Morgan Ph.D. 《Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal》1989,6(3):175-191
This paper explores the relation between television viewing and clinical indicators for the mental health profession. Television viewing is seen from a systemic process perspective, based on data about children in therapy from therapists and parents. Family viewing patterns appear to be related to certain types of clinical indicators, especially attention deficit disorder and acting out. Of particular interest is the finding of a strong association between parental viewing habits and ADD on the part of children. The results suggest that television may be a useful indicator of family health for mental health practitioners and researchers. 相似文献