Simulating competing cointegration tests in a bivariate system

In this paper, we consider the size and power of a set of cointegration tests in a number of Monte Carlo simulations. The behaviour of the competing methods is investigated in diff erent situations, including diff erent levels of variance and correlation in the error processes. The impact of violations of the common factor restriction (CFR) implied by the Engle-Granger framework is studied in these situations. The reactions to changes in the CFR condition depend on the error correlation. When the correlation is non-positive, the power increases with increasing CFR violations for the error correction model (ECM) test, while the other tests react in the opposite direction. We also note the reaction to diff erences in the error variances in the data-generating process. For positive correlation and equal variances, the reaction to changes in the CFR violations diff ers somewhat between the tests. We conclude that the ECM and the Z-tests show the best performance over diff erent parameter combinations. In most situations the ECM is best. Therefore, if we had to recommend a unit root test, it would be the ECM, especially for small samples. However, we do not think that one should use just one test, but two or more. Of course, the portfolio of tests we have considered here only represents a subset of the possible tests.     

Explaining the ending of Sweden's nuclear phase-out policy: a new approach by referring to the advocacy coalition framework theory

Sweden has been a role model for many European countries as regards the phasing-out of nuclear power. Nuclear power policy became a strong political issue in 1976, much earlier than in other countries. Sweden was the first country in the world to decide to phase out nuclear energy. A non-binding referendum on this subject was held in 1980. As a result, parliament decided to ban nuclear power after 2010. The main aim of the paper is to understand the complex process of policy change throughout various periods in the Swedish phase-out policy by applying the advocacy coalition framework (ACF) theory. The ACF was designed in 1988 by Sabatier and Jenkins Smith to explain, for example, coalition structure and behavior, belief and policy change in controversial/debatable policy subsystems. In February 2009, the Swedish center-right alliance announced a position paper regarding plans to overturn a 30-year ban on new atomic plants, as a part of a new impulse to increase energy security and fight global warming. Based on a decision taken in the Swedish Parliament in June 2010, when a small majority approved these two aims, Sweden reversed its nuclear power phase-out. This paper will analyze the most relevant factors that led to such a radical policy change.     

Bildung und Übergang in den Ruhestand

On the basis of administrative data from the Research Data Centre (FDZ-RV) of the German Federal Pension Insurance, we examine the effects education has on the timing of retirement for employees in East and West Germany in 2007. The large sample size of the Scientific Use File of the pension inflow statistics (n = 29933) allows a differentiated analysis considering multiple dimensions. Using key demographic indicators such as sex, region, length of career and pension payments, we demonstrate the effects of the level of education on the age of retirement, measured in years between 60 and 65 or older. Our analysis shows that high skilled retire later than low skilled employees. The difference is smaller than one year. But the beginning of the high skilled careers is round about two years later, with higher pension payments. Based on this findings, we discuss to which extent skills can lengthen the lifetime career with respect to pull and push factors.     

Wirkungsweise von Combined-Currency Prices – Eine theoretische und empirisch experimentelle Analyse

Over the last few years, programs to enhance customer retention have strongly increased in popularity. Thus, a growing number of artificial currencies such as bonus points or miles have been created. In consequence, many products and services today can be paid by using a combination of real (e.g. Euro) and artificial currencies. These combined-currency prices offer marketers many possibilities to design prices. Yet, research dealing with the effects of such combined-currency prices is scarce. Therefore, our study addresses the effect of combined-currency prices on consumers' perception of prices purchase behaviour. Moreover, we analysed how such effects can be explained by taking into account important concepts of the field of price psychology. Our experimental results demonstrate that combined-currency prices strongly influence consumers' perception of price fairness. Particularly if planning to increase prices or when designing prices for bonus programs, marketers should therefore favour combined-currency prices instead of one-dimensional prices.     

Benford’s Law: an instrument for selecting tax audit targets?

We consider whether Benford’s Law can be used to improve target selection prior to the start of on-site tax audits, thus increasing effectiveness and efficiency of fiscal enforcement. Laboratory experiments are conducted to obtain manipulated data and compare these to data which are known to be unmanipulated. We find that Benford’s Law can be used as a tool for audit selection, but that auditors must be cautious to ensure that Benford’s Law can be expected to apply to unmanipulated data of the prospective audit target. We also find that subjects cannot adapt sufficiently to Benford’s Law during tax fraud activity.

The impact of minimum taxation by an imputable wealth tax on capital budgeting and business strategy of German companies

An alternative minimum tax (AMT) that guarantees a minimum tax payment even in case of losses is often regarded desirable. We analyze the influence of a wealth tax designed as AMT on marginal investment decisions and provide an analytical approach and numerical analyses identifying distortive effects. We present a wealth tax AMT paradox under loss offset restrictions. Modelling enterprises of different structure, industry, size and legal status we show that companies in the financial services sector are more frequently subjected to this AMT than capital intensive industries. This result runs counter to well-known effects of a common wealth tax. We resume that whenever income is taxed correctly, AMT is dispensable.

Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni,South Africa

A detailed mathematical modeling framework for the risk of airborne infectious disease transmission in indoor spaces was developed to enable mathematical analysis of experiments conducted at the Airborne Infections Research (AIR) facility, eMalahleni, South Africa. A model was built using this framework to explore possible causes of why an experiment at the AIR facility did not produce expected results. The experiment was conducted at the AIR facility from August 31, 2015 to December 4, 2015, in which the efficacy of upper room germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) irradiation as an environmental control was tested. However, the experiment did not produce the expected outcome of having fewer infections in the test animal room than the control room. The simulation results indicate that dynamic effects, caused by switching the GUV lights, power outages, or introduction of new patients, did not result in the unexpected outcomes. However, a sensitivity analysis highlights that significant uncertainty exists with risk of transmission predictions based on current measurement practices, due to the reliance on large viable literature ranges for parameters.     

Top Managers' cognition facilitates organisational ambidexterity: The mediating role of cognitive processes

It is empirically founded and tested that top management team group processes facilitate ambidexterity, whereas the role of top managers' cognition has remained empirically largely neglected. This study contributes to the literature of top managers' cognition by theoretically developing the relationship between cognitive frames and organisational ambidexterity, and the mediating process of cognitive differentiation and integration. The study empirically tests the proposed model in cross-sectional design by employing a sample of 101 top managers, using partial least squares structural equation modelling.The study shows that top managers' paradoxical frames encourage the engagement in cognitive differentiation and integration, whereas top managers' paradoxical frames are not significantly related to organisational ambidexterity. Solely appreciating exploitation and exploration does not foster ambidexterity, but is an antecedent for top managers' cognitive differentiation and integration. Top managers' cognitive differentiation and integration mediate the relationship between top managers' paradoxical frames and organisational ambidexterity. Additionally, top managers' cognitive integration moderates the effect between top managers' cognitive differentiation and organisational ambidexterity, which stresses the pivotal role of top managers' cognitive integration.     

Shaped by place? Young people's aspirations in disadvantaged neighbourhoods

This paper aims to better understand the relationship between young people's aspirations towards education and jobs, and the context in which they are formed, especially to understand better the role of disadvantaged places in shaping young people's aspirations. Policy makers maintain that disadvantaged areas are associated with low aspirations and there is support for this position from academic work on neighbourhood effects and local labour markets, but evidence is slim. Using a two-stage survey of young people in disadvantaged settings in three British cities, the paper provides new data on the nature of young peoples’ aspirations, how they change during the teenage years, and how they relate to the places where they are growing up. The findings are that aspirations are very high and, overall, they do not appear to be depressed in relation to the jobs available in the labour market either by the neighbourhood context or by young people's perceptions of local labour markets. However, there are significant differences between the pattern of aspirations and how they change over time in the three locations. The paper then challenges assumptions in policy and in the literature that disadvantaged places equal low aspirations and suggests that understanding how aspirations are formed requires needs a nuanced approach to the nexus of class, ethnicity and institutional influences within local areas.