Adaptive designs for best treatment identification with top-two Thompson sampling and acceleration

We consider outcome adaptive phase II or phase II/III trials to identify the best treatment for further development. Different from many other multi-arm multi-stage designs, we borrow approaches for the best arm identification in multi-armed bandit (MAB) approaches developed for machine learning and adapt them for clinical trial purposes. The best arm identification in MAB focuses on the error rate of identification at the end of the trial, but we are also interested in the cumulative benefit of trial patients, for example, the frequency of patients treated with the best treatment. In particular, we consider Top-Two Thompson Sampling (TTTS) and propose an acceleration approach for better performance in drug development scenarios in which the sample size is much smaller than that considered in machine learning applications. We also propose a variant of TTTS (TTTS2) which is simpler, easier for implementation, and has comparable performance in small sample settings. An extensive simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach in multiple typical scenarios in drug development.     

A FUZZY SUBSET CHARACTERIZATION OF A SITE-SELECTION PROBLEM

This paper presents an application of fuzzy subsets to the problem of selecting sites for locating gas stations. Cost minimization and profit maximization models represent typical approaches to location decisions. These approaches are not well-suited to problems like site selection for gas stations because of the difficulty in identifying precise relationships, the uncertainties involved, and the qualitative and imprecise nature of much of the information used for decision making. This paper proposes the use of a model based on linguistic variables and a direct evaluation of the available alternatives via the use of fuzzy variables. Conclusions regarding the practical advantages and limitations of the approach are drawn based on the reported application.     

A Heuristic Algorithm for the Capacitated Multiple Supplier Inventory Grouping Problem

This paper presents and solves a model for the multiple supplier inventory grouping problem, which involves the minimization of logistics costs for a firm that has multiple suppliers with capacity limitations. The costs included in the model are purchasing, transportation, ordering, and inventory holding, while the firm's objective is to determine the optimal flows and groups of commodities from each supplier. We present an algorithm, which combines subgradient optimization and a primal heuristic, to quickly solve the multiple supplier inventory grouping problem. Our algorithm is tested extensively on problems of various sizes and structures, and its performance is compared to that of OSL, a state-of-the-art integer programming code. The computational results indicate that our approach is extremely efficient for solving the multiple supplier inventory grouping problem.