Improving Weight of Evidence Approaches to Chemical Evaluations

Federal and other regulatory agencies often use or claim to use a weight of evidence (WoE) approach in chemical evaluation. Their approaches to the use of WoE, however, differ significantly, rely heavily on subjective professional judgment, and merit improvement. We review uses of WoE approaches in key articles in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature, and find significant variations. We find that a hypothesis‐based WoE approach, developed by Lorenz Rhomberg et al., can provide a stronger scientific basis for chemical assessment while improving transparency and preserving the appropriate scope of professional judgment. Their approach, while still evolving, relies on the explicit specification of the hypothesized basis for using the information at hand to infer the ability of an agent to cause human health impacts or, more broadly, affect other endpoints of concern. We describe and endorse such a hypothesis‐based WoE approach to chemical evaluation.     

Estimating school effectiveness with student growth percentile and gain score models

Measuring school effectiveness using student test scores is controversial and some methods used for this can be inaccurate in some situations. The validity of two statistical models – the Student Growth Percentile (SGP) model and a multilevel gain score model – are evaluated. The SGP model conditions on previous test scores thereby unblocking a backdoor path between true school/teacher effectiveness and student test scores. When the product of the coefficients that make up this unblocked backdoor path is positive, the SGP estimates can be inaccurate. The accuracy of the multilevel gain score model was not associated with the product of this backdoor path. The gain score model appears promising in these situations where the SGP and other covariate adjusted models perform poorly.     

The Value of Information in Decision‐Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced‐based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5–21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria‐transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.     

Gambling and Alcohol Use: Trends in the State of New Mexico from 1996–1998

Alcohol consumption and its relationship to gambling was examined in a statewide New Mexico survey in 1996 and 1998. Data regarding both drinking habits and gambling behavior were obtained from a stratified random sample of the adult population (N = 2674) across the entire State of New Mexico via phone survey. These surveys were carried out shortly after a period when New Mexico experienced an initial surge in the legalized gaming industry. Fifty-seven percent of survey respondents reported drinking in the past month, while 43.1% reported no drinking in the past 30 days. Results show that while the number of days in the past 30 that a person drinks is significantly correlated with some types of gambling behavior (e.g., in 1998, drinking more days was associated with more card gambling and sports gambling), it is the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion that is associated with more gambling behavior. For example, in both 1996 and 1998, drinking more per occasion was associated with more sports betting, dice gambling, number/lottery gambling, gambling using machines, and paper game gambling (e.g., pull tabs, punchboard). These results suggest that problem gambling behavior is not affected as much by the number of occasions on which one consumes alcohol, as by the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion.     

Sexual identity distress, social support, and the health of gay, lesbian, and bisexual youth

Sex researchers and mental health clinicians have long recognized that the stigma surrounding homosexuality plays an important role in shaping the social psychological adjustment of gay, lesbian, and bisexual (g/l/b) people. In recent years, researchers have suggested that sexual identity- related distress may influence the physical health status of g/l/b people, primarily because of the ways these self-related feelings and beliefs impact patterns of health-related behavior. This study examines the influence of sexual identity distress and social support on g/l/b youth's drug and alcohol use, psychological distress, and risky sexual behavior. The data come from a services research demonstration program conducted at the Indiana Youth Group, Inc., a g/l/b youth development agency based in Indianapolis, Indiana. Results indicate that sexual identity distress is strongly associated with psychological distress, less frequent use of alcohol, and using fewer types of illegal drugs. Being out to more people in one's support network, however, attenuates the severity of youth's sexual identity-related distress. Youth who report more support ties to g/l/b people indicate engaging in more frequent risky sexual behavior. The implications of these findings for theories of g/l/b youth's sexual identity development are discussed.     

Discrimination of SM-identified individuals

The belief that sadomasochism (SM) is violence or abusive behavior has resulted in harassment, physical attacks, and discrimination against SM-identified individuals. Historically, they were often opposed by self-identified feminists. One reason the women who practiced SM were targeted was the official opposition to sadomasochistic practices promulgated by the National Organization for Women (NOW). Current statistics of incidents of discrimination, harassment and physical attacks against SM-identified individuals and SM groups are compiled by the National Coalition for Sexual Freedom (NCSF).     

Single-Parenthood and Poverty in Great Britain

ABSTRACT This paper examines empirically the relationship between single-parenthood and absolute poverty in Great Britain. Data from two years of the Family Expenditure Survey are used (1968 and 1986). A poverty measure that is additively decomposable with population share weights, and consistent with Sen's axiomatic approach to poverty measurement, is used to decompose the total amount of poverty into the “shares” accruing to different types of households (i.e. female and male single-parents, two-parent households and “other” types of households). Three main conclusions concerning the poverty experience of British single-parents emerge from the analysis. The first is that poverty rates for single-parent households are generally higher than the average for all households. However, this disadvantage is not as large as one might expect, especially when a comparison is made with two-parent households. The second is that single-parent households are over-represented in the ranks of the poor. That is, their “share” of total poverty is greater than their population share. The third is that increasing single-parenthood has had little impact on the overall trend in absolute poverty in the period 1968 to 1986.     

Identity work in female‐led creative businesses

This study explores the identity work carried out by three female owner‐managers in creative industry businesses, identified in Government reports as a discriminatory industrial sector for women in the UK. Through the development of narratives by the owners and other participants, observation of practice and review of online and offline materials, three cases emerged. These showed overlapping, different identities developed and performed through identity work. Each presented rational and logical persona as business leaders despite observation showing extensive use of intuition and gut feeling in both creative and entrepreneurial aspects of the business. Intuition and gut feeling were seen as inappropriate at work as they belonged to the home sphere, emotionally based and therefore automatically unreliable. While occupying male stereotypes and avoiding the female realm of emotion at work, these women expressed femininity through their emphasis on the maternal, ‘being a good mother' as a desired ideal being embedded in work as well as home practice.     

An audit of received international business corruption literature for logic,consistency, completeness of coverage

This analysis of International Business (IB) corruption literature identifies gaps and inconsistencies in how corruption is perceived or deliberated in top academic journals. The reviewed articles tend to focus on one of the three key themes of IB corruption (Contributing factors, Consequences, and Combating) and are categorised into the six sub-domains of the IB framework. The content of the articles is categorised into the respective themes and discussed in relation to underpinning theories and key constructs. The process is intended to be less a synthesis of the literature than an audit revealing that IB corruption research is weakened by tendencies to: 1) Be siloed within its subtheme and to not cross-tie to work in other key themes—this issue is very severe in the Combating theme; 2) Have a short-term focus that disregards the cumulative effects of total graft, and; 3) Asymmetrically focus (predominantly) on the supply side of corruption. These finding suggest several avenues for further research.