Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-Bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico’s dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The new economics of labor migration theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops.     

The Community Action Framework in Practice: An Illustration Based on the Ready by 21 Coalition of Austin/Travis County

The field of positive youth development has expanded focus from articulating and measuring desired manifestations of positive well-being to assembling the environmental conditions known to promote these desired outcomes. Evidence of the effectiveness of community-level efforts promoting positive youth development is still emerging, in particular theory-driven examples of community-driven youth development. This study examined the Community Action Framework, one theory-based community youth development model, through the experiences of the Ready by 21 Austin/Travis County coalition (RB21). The coalition connects youth-serving organizations and also regional coalitions, while promoting the positive development of area youth. Participant observation, interviewing, and archival strategies were integrated to capture information related to the complex and dynamic coalition. Results indicated that RB21 represents a practical and meaningful application of the Community Action Framework. Specific examples and recommendations are provided as guidance for other community level youth development efforts.     

Rural–urban migration, agrarian change, and the environment in Kenya: a critical review of the literature

The nexus between migration dynamics and environmental change has drawn the attention of many researchers in the recent past. While the majority of studies focus on the impact of the environment on migration decisions, less emphasis has been placed on the feedback effect of migration on the environment in rural sending areas. This article provides a critical review of this relationship by focusing on the rich literature on rural–urban migration of smallholder households in Kenya and its effects on rural environments. The article argues that there are distinct relations between migration, agricultural change and the environment. These are mediated in varying degrees by flows of remittances, loss of labor, socioeconomic stratification, gender dynamics, and cultural factors. Overly generalizing assumptions about these relations, however, fail to grasp their complexity. We propose employing a translocal perspective to enrich future analysis and enhance the understanding of migration–environmental interactions.     

THE PERFORMANCE EFFECTS OF WISE AND UNWISE MANAGERIAL DISMISSALS

The decision to dismiss a coach is challenging because poor performance tends to coincide with both bad luck and low coaching ability. We differentiate between dismissals following actual poor performance on the pitch (wise dismissals) and dismissals following seemingly poor performance due to bad luck (unwise dismissals). To categorize dismissals, we use “expected goals,” which are less vulnerable to random variation in match outcomes. Using data from European football, we find that wise dismissals increase subsequent performance compared to a control group of nondismissals with similarly poor performance on the pitch. However, unwise dismissals do not improve subsequent performance compared to a control group with similar strings of bad luck. (JEL D81, J44, L83)     

Introduction: Special Issue on Old Lesbians: Exploring Community,Relationships, Friendship,and Well Being

This introduction begins with memories of homophobia the editors experienced to remind the reader of the general climate old lesbians faced in their younger years. Rationale for studying old lesbians and the relevance of the articles contained in this issue are described. Some different ways old lesbians identify that may affect policy decision and research analysis are included. Early significant research on the topic of old lesbians is noted and suggestions for future research studies are recommended.     

Caring for elderly parents and adult children living at home: interactions of the Sandwich Generation family

The study presented here analyzed the patterns of demands made on 66 middle-aged women by their elderly parents and their adult children who were living at home. Factor analyses of the reports of family interactions revealed the presence of five adult children-middle-aged parents interaction factors and four elderly parents-middle-aged parents interactions. These patterns were considerably more complex than previous studies of the Sandwich Generation suggested. As expected, socioeconomic status and health of the elderly parents were related to these family interaction factors.     

An efficient computational approach for prior sensitivity analysis and cross‐validation

Prior sensitivity analysis and cross‐validation are important tools in Bayesian statistics. However, due to the computational expense of implementing existing methods, these techniques are rarely used. In this paper, the authors show how it is possible to use sequential Monte Carlo methods to create an efficient and automated algorithm to perform these tasks. They apply the algorithm to the computation of regularization path plots and to assess the sensitivity of the tuning parameter in g‐prior model selection. They then demonstrate the algorithm in a cross‐validation context and use it to select the shrinkage parameter in Bayesian regression. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38:47–64; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada