全文获取类型
收费全文 | 88923篇 |
免费 | 1950篇 |
国内免费 | 3篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 12154篇 |
民族学 | 527篇 |
人才学 | 26篇 |
人口学 | 6638篇 |
丛书文集 | 505篇 |
理论方法论 | 9282篇 |
综合类 | 2078篇 |
社会学 | 40957篇 |
统计学 | 18709篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 507篇 |
2021年 | 561篇 |
2020年 | 1501篇 |
2019年 | 2201篇 |
2018年 | 2019篇 |
2017年 | 3099篇 |
2016年 | 2320篇 |
2015年 | 2034篇 |
2014年 | 2615篇 |
2013年 | 18820篇 |
2012年 | 2273篇 |
2011年 | 2037篇 |
2010年 | 1907篇 |
2009年 | 2143篇 |
2008年 | 1966篇 |
2007年 | 1759篇 |
2006年 | 2027篇 |
2005年 | 2212篇 |
2004年 | 2109篇 |
2003年 | 1827篇 |
2002年 | 1936篇 |
2001年 | 1902篇 |
2000年 | 1689篇 |
1999年 | 1614篇 |
1998年 | 1466篇 |
1997年 | 1319篇 |
1996年 | 1270篇 |
1995年 | 1305篇 |
1994年 | 1275篇 |
1993年 | 1250篇 |
1992年 | 1224篇 |
1991年 | 1149篇 |
1990年 | 1128篇 |
1989年 | 975篇 |
1988年 | 1075篇 |
1987年 | 950篇 |
1986年 | 843篇 |
1985年 | 1014篇 |
1984年 | 1091篇 |
1983年 | 979篇 |
1982年 | 907篇 |
1981年 | 838篇 |
1980年 | 792篇 |
1979年 | 847篇 |
1978年 | 750篇 |
1977年 | 674篇 |
1976年 | 641篇 |
1975年 | 625篇 |
1974年 | 496篇 |
1973年 | 424篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
281.
Stuart G. Baker Barnett S. Kramer 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(5):941-954
Summary. When evaluating potential interventions for cancer prevention, it is necessary to compare benefits and harms. With new study designs, new statistical approaches may be needed to facilitate this comparison. A case in point arose in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized trial of tamoxifen versus placebo in asymptomatic women who were at high risk for breast cancer. Although the randomized trial showed that tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk of breast cancer, the harms from tamoxifen were serious and some were life threaten-ing. In hopes of finding a subset of women with inherited risk genes who derive greater bene-fits from tamoxifen, we proposed a nested case–control study to test some trial subjects for various genes and new statistical methods to extrapolate benefits and harms to the general population. An important design question is whether or not the study should target common low penetrance genes. Our calculations show that useful results are only likely with rare high penetrance genes. 相似文献
282.
James P. Davis 《Journal of popular culture》2005,38(6):1011-1021
283.
284.
The authors review the trends in the use of computers in the delivery and support of career guidance and counseling identified at the symposium International Perspectives on Career Development. The papers presented emphasized that 20th‐century computer‐based systems continue to be used, mainly delivered via the World Wide Web. These systems are enhanced through audio, video, graphics, strategies to provide needs assessment, and support by cybercounselors or expert system design. The papers also revealed a new trend: the use of elegant Web sites to store and search immense libraries of resources needed by professionals and clients and to facilitate communication and collaboration among professionals in cyberspace. Concerns, issues, and resources related to many areas, including the readiness of clients to use computer‐based systems, were also raised; existing sources of guidelines are noted. 相似文献
285.
Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
R. A. Rigby D. M. Stasinopoulos 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(3):507-554
Summary. A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models. 相似文献
286.
287.
288.
289.
A growing literature examines the empirical relationship between the joint reproductive preferences of marital partners and reproductive outcomes in Africa. Less explored is how spousal power in decision making may be influenced by lineage type. Using pooled data from Ghana, we investigate how lineage affects gendered reproductive decision outcomes and find some evidence that matrilineal women are more able than nonmatrilineal women to translate their reproductive preferences into action consistent with their goals. 相似文献
290.
Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances. 相似文献