Management of premature menopause

There has been some confusion among women and health professionals since the publication of the Women's Health Initiative and Million Women studies about the management of premature ovarian failure (POF). Both studies were undertaken in women aged 50 and over, and cannot be extrapolated to their younger counterparts, who would normally be producing their endogenous estrogen, since they have functioning ovaries. Estrogen-based replacement therapy is the main stay of treatment for women with POF and is recommended at least until the average age of natural menopause (52 years in the UK). This view is endorsed by regulatory bodies such as the Committee on Safety of Medicines (now the Commission on Human Medicines) in the UK. No evidence shows that estrogen replacement increases the risk of breast cancer to a level greater than that found in normally menstruating women, and women with POF do not need to start mammographic screening early unless other risk factors are present, such as family history.     

Does the number of sex partners affect educational attainment? Evidence from female respondents to the Add Health

We use data on young women from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to explore the relationship between number of sex partners and educational attainment. Using the average physical development of male schoolmates to generate plausibly exogenous variation in number of sex partners, instrumental variables estimates suggest that number of sex partners is negatively related to educational attainment. This result is consistent with the argument that romantic involvements are time consuming and can impose substantial emotional costs on young women.     

European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options

Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35–40?% of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, but 55–70?% of the regions will see a labor force decline by 10?% or more. In most regions of Eastern Europe, the labor force may decrease by more than 30?%. To keep regions prosperous (maintaining competitiveness) and to avoid worse inequality (maintaining cohesion), policy-makers must find ways to cope with these challenges through new fiscal and social policies, though policies directly affecting demographic and migratory trends may also be needed.     

Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001–2051

This paper reports on projections of the United Kingdom’s ethnic group populations for 2001–2051. For the years 2001–2007 we estimate fertility rates, survival probabilities, internal migration probabilities and international migration flows for 16 ethnic groups and 355 UK areas. We make assumptions about future component rates, probabilities and flows and feed these into our projection model. This model is a cohort-component model specified for single years of age to 100+. To handle this large state space, we employed a bi-regional model. We implement four projections: (1) a benchmark projection that uses the component inputs for 2001; (2) a trend projection where assumptions beyond 2007 are adjusted to those in the UK 2008-based National Population Projections (NPP); (3) a projection that modifies the NPP assumptions and (4) a projection that uses a different emigration assumption. The projected UK population ranges between a low of 63 millions in 2051 under the first projection to a high of 79 million in the third projection. Under all projections ethnic composition continues to change: the White British, White Irish and Black Caribbean groups experience the slowest growth and lose population share; the Other White and Mixed groups to experience relative increases in share; South Asian groups grow strongly as do the Chinese and Other Ethnic groups. The ethnic minority share of the population increases from 13% (2001) to 25% in the trend projection but to only 20% under our modified emigration projection. However, what is certain is that the UK can look forward to be becoming a more diverse nation by mid-century.     

A local analysis of ethnic group population trends and projections for the UK

Projections of the UK’s ethnic populations from 2001 to 2051 show significant future change. Groups outside the White British majority will increase in size and share, not only in core areas but throughout the country. Ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived local authorities and into less deprived ones, while the White distribution remains stable. The share of the Mixed group population in the most deprived quintile (Q5) of local authorities reduces from 26 to 19%, while its share in the least deprived quintile (Q1) increases from 22 to 29%. The corresponding shifts for Asian groups are from 25 to 18% for Q5 and from 9 to 20% for the Q1. For Black groups the Q5 quintile sees a decrease from 54 to 39% while the Q1 sees an increase from 7 to 19%. There are shifts to local authorities with lower ethnic minority concentrations by Mixed, Asian and Black populations from local authorities with high ethnic concentrations, while the White, Chinese and Other group distributions remain in 2051 as they were in 2001. So, ethnic minority groups will be less segregated from the rest of the population in 2051 than in 2001. Indices of Dissimilarity between each group and the rest of the population fall by a third over the projection period. The UK in 2051 will be a more ethnically diverse society than in 2001.     

Abuse of Adolescents: Implications of North American Research for the UK

In the last edition of this journal we reviewed the extensive North Amercican (mainly US) literature on the abuse of adolescents. Here we look at the implications of the research for the current UK context.     

The effect of parental labor supply on child schooling: evidence from trade liberalization in India

This paper estimates the effect of changes in maternal and paternal labor supply on the schooling rates of children in India using the variation in industry-specific tariffs during a period of trade liberalization. The results show that an increase in maternal labor supplied outside of the household leads to a higher schooling probability for younger children. Specifically, a 1 day per week increase in maternal labor supply is associated with an approximately 5 % points increase in the schooling probability for children between the ages of 7 and 10. However, father’s labor supply has an insignificant effect on child schooling across all specifications. The effect for older children between the ages of 11 and 14, who face a tradeoff between schooling, market work, and domestic work, is also found to be insignificant.     

Revisiting carrying capacity: Area-based indicators of sustainability

Conventional wisdom suggests that because of technology and trade, human carrying capacity is infinitely expandable and therefore virtually irrelevant to demography and development planning. By contrast, this article argues that ecological carrying capacity remains the fundamental basis for demographic accounting. A fundamental question for ecological economics is whether remaining stocks of natural capital are adequate to sustain the anticipated load of the human economy into the next century. Since mainstream (neoclassical) models are blind to ecological structure and function, they cannot even properly address this question. The present article therefore assesses the capital stocks, physical flows, and corresponding ecosystems areas required to support the economy using ecological footprint analysis. This approach shows that most so-called advanced countries are running massive unaccounted ecological deficits with the rest of the planet. Since not all countries can be net importers of carrying capacity, the material standards of the wealthy cannot be extended sustainably to even the present world population using prevailing technology. In this light, sustainability may well depend on such measures as greater emphasis on equity in international relationships, significant adjustments to prevailing terms of trade, increasing regional self-reliance, and policies to stimulate a massive increase in the material and energy efficiency of economic activity.