Banks That Don't Lend? Unlocking Credit to Spur Growth in Developing Countries

This article explores the level of liquidity within the banking systems of developing countries and the potential impact on rates of economic growth from prudently redirecting a portion of liquid assets into credit to the private sector. It finds that banks in developing countries are extremely liquid and growth rates per capita might increase substantially in response to heightened lending to the private sector. It then summarises the primary obstacles to this and presents several policy reforms that can augment the level of credit to the private sector in developing countries.     

Comparing Offers and Take‐ups of Employee Health Insurance across Race,Gender, and Decade*

How often do U.S. employees receive health insurance offers from employers? When offered, how often do they take up their employer‐based health insurance? This article uses the 1992 and 2002 waves of the National Study of the Changing Workforce (NSCW) to investigate changes in access to (offers) and employees electing to accept, take, or purchase their employers’ health insurance plans (take‐ups) among wage and salaried workers. Although much research has studied employee health benefits, little has examined the intersection of gender and race regarding both offers and take‐ups of such benefits. Logistic regression results indicate that offers and take‐ups of personal health benefits declined from 1992 to 2002, net of salient controls. Further analyses demonstrate that these declines did not affect all workers identically. Offers declined somewhat for both women and men among whites and African Americans, but declined more among Hispanic women and men. Among other ethnoracial groups, offers declined the most among men, but increased among comparable women. Take‐ups declined among white men and Hispanic workers. However, white and African American women's take‐ups did not change and among African American men take‐ups increased. We discuss the need to examine gender and race simultaneously and urge researchers to more closely examine changes in health benefit offers and take‐ups.     

On probability matching priors

First‐order probability matching priors are priors for which Bayesian and frequentist inference, in the form of posterior quantiles, or confidence intervals, agree to a second order of approximation. The authors show that the matching priors developed by Peers (1965) and Tibshirani (1989) are readily and uniquely implemented in a third‐order approximation to the posterior marginal density. The authors further show how strong orthogonality of parameters simplifies the arguments. Several examples illustrate their results.     

When a family member has an intellectual handicap

Oral histories of ten close relatives of people over the age of 50 defined as intellectually handicapped have been collected as part of the New Zealand Ageing and Intellectual Handicap study. Many of the individuals with intellectual handicap were institutionalized from an early age; some had little or no contact with family members for a very long time; others lived continuously at home. The qualitative data record over 50 years' experience of having a family member with intellectual handicap, from early childhood through to middle or old age, and outline concerns about deinstitutionalisation and the future. It is concluded that families cannot go it alone and that the full participation of people with disabilities in community life and culture depends on well-resourced public policies and programmes of inclusion.     

Subgroup analyses in cost‐effectiveness analyses to support health technology assessments

‘Success’ in drug development is bringing to patients a new medicine that has an acceptable benefit–risk profile and that is also cost‐effective. Cost‐effectiveness means that the incremental clinical benefit is deemed worth paying for by a healthcare system, and it has an important role in enabling manufacturers to obtain new medicines to patients as soon as possible following regulatory approval. Subgroup analyses are increasingly being utilised by decision‐makers in the determination of the cost‐effectiveness of new medicines when making recommendations. This paper highlights the statistical considerations when using subgroup analyses to support cost‐effectiveness for a health technology assessment. The key principles recommended for subgroup analyses supporting clinical effectiveness published by Paget et al. are evaluated with respect to subgroup analyses supporting cost‐effectiveness. A health technology assessment case study is included to highlight the importance of subgroup analyses when incorporated into cost‐effectiveness analyses. In summary, we recommend planning subgroup analyses for cost‐effectiveness analyses early in the drug development process and adhering to good statistical principles when using subgroup analyses in this context. In particular, we consider it important to provide transparency in how subgroups are defined, be able to demonstrate the robustness of the subgroup results and be able to quantify the uncertainty in the subgroup analyses of cost‐effectiveness. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gender and Multigenerational Global Human Development

In the context of a growing campaign to focus more international development efforts on women and girls, this article presents a pathways model of multigenerational global human development through an examination of gender and women as agents of development in the context of motherhood. As the vast majority of the world's women are mothers, issues related to motherhood are fundamental to addressing gender and development. Based on the United Nations' concept of human development and a review of the literature, we explore how women are uniquely effective development agents in that increases in women's access to income, education, and health often have higher potential payoffs compared with men in terms of the next generation and beyond. A human development paradigm that does not fully include women is both an injustice to half of the world's population and a missed opportunity for maximizing human development for both men and women in generations to come. Gender and development policies must consider the enhancement of human capacities for long‐term improved quality of life, and they must address structural barriers to equality to not only allow women more opportunities in the public sphere but also to transform gender relations in the domestic sphere.     

On confidence intervals associated with the usual and adjusted likelihoods

In the presence of nuisance parameters, we drive an explicit higher order asymptotic formula to compare the expected lengths of confidence intervals given by likelihood ratio statistics arising from the usual profile likelihood and various adjustments thereof. Highest posterior density regions, with approximate frequentist validity, are also included in the study.