Multivariate boundary kernels and a continuous least squares principle

Whereas there are many references on univariate boundary kernels, the construction of boundary kernels for multivariate density and curve estimation has not been investigated in detail. The use of multivariate boundary kernels ensures global consistency of multivariate kernel estimates as measured by the integrated mean-squared error or sup-norm deviation for functions with compact support. We develop a class of boundary kernels which work for any support, regardless of the complexity of its boundary. Our construction yields a boundary kernel for each point in the boundary region where the function is to be estimated. These boundary kernels provide a natural continuation of non-negative kernels used in the interior onto the boundary. They are obtained as solutions of the same kernel-generating variational problem which also produces the kernel function used in the interior as its solution. We discuss the numerical implementation of the proposed boundary kernels and their relationship to locally weighted least squares. Along the way we establish a continuous least squares principle and a continuous analogue of the Gauss–Markov theorem.     

Demography of Indian aging, 2001-2051

India is the second largest country in the world, with 72 million elderly persons above 60 years of age as of 2001, compared to China's 127 million. One of the objectives of this paper is to assess the emerging scenario of elderly for the first half of the 21st century. According to projections, the elderly in the age group 60 and above is expected to increase from 71 million in 2001 to 179 million in 2031, and further to 301 million in 2051; in the case of those 70 years and older, they are projected to increase from 27 million in 2001 to 132 million in 2051. Among the elderly persons 80 and above, they are likely to improve their numbers from 5.4 million in 2021 to 32.0 million in 2051. The increasing number and proportion of elderly will have a direct impact on the demand for health services and pension and social security payments. Mobilizing resources for geriatric care and providing sufficient maintenance for the elderly will emerge as a major responsibility for heath-care providers and pension economists.     

Union Stability and Stepfamily Fertility in Austria,Finland, France &; West Germany

In this paper, we test the hypothesis that unique effects of stepfamily composition on union fertility are confounded with differences between stepfamilies and couples without stepchildren in the risk of union disruption. We use birth and union histories from Fertility and Family Surveys in Austria, Finland, France and West Germany. The risks of a union birth and separation are modeled simultaneously, allowing for the potential effects of unobserved predispositions to have a child or to separate on the other event. We test hypotheses drawn from the value of first and second shared births to couples: Net of the couple’s combined parity, the birth risk will be greater if the child is (a) the first in a union, (b) the first biological child for one of the partners, or (c) the second child in a union.Henz, U. et Thomson, E., 2005. Stabilité des unions et fécondité des familles recomposées en Autriche, Finlande, France et Allemagne de l’ouest, Revue Européenne de Démographie, 21: 3–29.     

南宋巴蜀散文(上)

南宋巴蜀散文作家林立 ,著述颇丰 ,体裁上以奏疏政论为主体 ,内容上以忧国忧民、救亡图存为旨归 ,文风通俗质朴 ,犀利简明 ,沉郁悲愤。字里行间 ,忧心如焚 ,忠心可鉴 ,全面展现了四川乃至全国军民抗击强虏的英雄史、腐败朝廷苟且偷安的衰亡史 ,体现了中国知识分子及广大军民的民族魂、爱国心和亡国痛     

Colonial Governmentality and the Public Sphere in India

Colonial governmentality in India reconstituted the public sphere. New political rationalities that constituted modern governmental power and the liberal technologies of government effected a new conception of economy and society. Governmentality's governance of colonial conduct in an improving direction socialized native public opinion to question the legitimacy of the colonial covenant. As native opinion against colonial rule sharpened, colonial liberalism had often to make a volte-face of its liberal principle and was forced to suppress public opinion. Gandhi alone sought to overturn colonial governmentality and in doing so, provided a conception of public opinion that could transcend the limits of liberal reason.     

《人权概念起源》随想

人权是一个发展的概念,并不是一个逻辑的、先验的抽象概念,将其与具体的历史形态相联系有助于人权悖论之解决.文章简要介绍了马克思主义人权理论的基本特点,并且对不同地域文化背景下的中西方人权观念作了比较.事实上,在一个自然经济为基础的伦理社会,根本不可能产生人权的概念.     

Sad and Lonely? Sad Mood Suppresses Facial Mimicry

The aim of the current study was to investigate the influence of happy and sad mood on facial muscular reactions to emotional facial expressions. Following film clips intended to induce happy and sad mood states, participants observed faces with happy, sad, angry, and neutral expressions while their facial muscular reactions were recorded electromyografically. Results revealed that after watching the happy clip participants showed congruent facial reactions to all emotional expressions, whereas watching the sad clip led to a general reduction of facial muscular reactions. Results are discussed with respect to the information processing style underlying the lack of mimicry in a sad mood state and also with respect to the consequences for social interactions and for embodiment theories.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction with multiply Type-II censored samples of sequential order statistics from one- and two-parameter exponential distributions

Based on multiply Type-II censored samples of sequential order statistics, Bayesian estimators are derived for the parameters of one- and two-parameter exponential distributions. In the one-parameter set-up, the posterior density is obtained under the assumption that the prior distribution is given by an inverse Gamma distribution, and the Bayes estimator with respect to squared error loss is calculated. Its performance is illustrated by a numerical example and compared with two non-Bayesian estimators, namely the BLUE and the approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE). Moreover, prediction of future failure times is considered. Minimum risk equivariant estimators and predictors are deduced from the given results. Finally, similar results are presented for the two-parameter situation.     

The Stability of Rankings Derived From Composite Indicators: Analysis of the “IL Sole 24 Ore” Quality of Life Report

The calculation of composite indicators and the derivation of respective rankings is a common method used to benchmark countries or regions. However, although the statistical robustness of these rankings is often criticised, they often still spark off heated political debate. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the province ranking published by the Italian economics newspaper “Il Sole 24 Ore”. For this purpose, various weighting, normalising and aggregation schemes were compared. Furthermore, to assess the accuracy of the underlying model, confidence intervals were calculated for the indicator values. The dynamic properties of the rankings were also analysed by evaluating the short- and long-term forecast properties of the rankings.