BOCOG's outsourcing contracts: The vendor's perspective

To date, most research on outsourcing is modeled from the client's perspective. In this paper, we approach the Beijing Organizing Committee for the Games of the XXIX Olympiad (BOCOG) outsourcing contracts from the vendors’ perspective. Since a vendor always has the option to accept or not accept an outsourcing contract, we use the theory of options to analyze the vendor's decision making, i.e., the trigger point, which coincides with the optimal profit level, of the vendor's decision to pursue an outsourcing contract. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the model and its potential benefits for vendors’ decision making.     

Small Area Estimation for Zero-Inflated Data

The commonly used method of small area estimation (SAE) under a linear mixed model may not be efficient if data contain substantial proportion of zeros than would be expected under standard model assumptions (hereafter zero-inflated data). The authors discuss the SAE for zero-inflated data under a two-part random effects model that account for excess zeros in the data. Empirical results show that proposed method for SAE works well and produces an efficient set of small area estimates. An application to real survey data from the National Sample Survey Office of India demonstrates the satisfactory performance of the method. The authors describe a parametric bootstrap method to estimate the mean squared error (MSE) of the proposed estimator of small areas. The bootstrap estimates of the MSE are compared to the true MSE in simulation study.     

On The Optimal Choice of Cube and Star Replications in Restricted Second-Order Designs

This article examines the central composite design in which some of the experimental runs are replicated. Three different classes of N-point designs are compared using the criterion of Schur's ordering under orthogonality, rotatablity, and slope- rotatablity conditions. The response surface designs with the star portion replicated seem to have more potential than others under orthogonality condition, while the designs with the cube portion replicated is preferable to the designs with their star portion or only the center point replicated under rotatable and slope-rotatable conditions.     

Estimation in a competing risks proportional hazards model under length-biased sampling with censoring

What population does the sample represent? The answer to this question is of crucial importance when estimating a survivor function in duration studies. As is well-known, in a stationary population, survival data obtained from a cross-sectional sample taken from the population at time $t_0$ represents not the target density $f(t)$ but its length-biased version proportional to $tf(t)$ , for $t>0$ . The problem of estimating survivor function from such length-biased samples becomes more complex, and interesting, in presence of competing risks and censoring. This paper lays out a sampling scheme related to a mixed Poisson process and develops nonparametric estimators of the survivor function of the target population assuming that the two independent competing risks have proportional hazards. Two cases are considered: with and without independent censoring before length biased sampling. In each case, the weak convergence of the process generated by the proposed estimator is proved. A well-known study of the duration in power for political leaders is used to illustrate our results. Finally, a simulation study is carried out in order to assess the finite sample behaviour of our estimators.     

Multichannels Strategy Implementation: The Role of Channel Alignment Capabilities*

A firm's distribution channels represent a key portfolio of resources that can be leveraged for competitive advantage. One approach to this portfolio that has become increasingly important in recent years is multichannel distribution (MCD). While this strategy has important benefits in terms of market coverage and firm performance, the use of multiple channels seriously affects downstream channel roles such as service delivery, as the financial rewards to channel members and the services they offer are separated. A channel member who offers poor or no service can free‐ride on the services offered to the same customer from a different channel. We draw on agency theory to explain these negative consequences. Additionally, the resource‐based view of the firm along with capabilities theory provides two key means of alleviating these consequences: channel tracking capabilities and reward alignment capabilities. The study, conducted in an industry facing serious MCD issues (the outdoor sporting goods industry), used key informant data matched to secondary data. Our results show that managers can reap the performance rewards of MCD strategies while minimizing its negative consequences. In particular, monitoring practices such as frequent site visits and phone contact with customers develop the firm's channel tracking capabilities, allowing managers to better monitor downstream activities. This becomes particularly important as the complexity from having multiple channels increases. Likewise, reward alignment capabilities such as retail price maintenance agreements and cooperative advertising enable the manager to minimize conflict among channel participants by ensuring sufficient profitability for all channel members.     

ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY OF GOODNESS-OF-FIT STATISTICS FOR SPARSE POISSON DATA

Goodness-of-fit tests for discrete data and models with parameters to be estimated are usually based on Pearson's χ2 or the Likelihood Ratio Statistic. Both are included in the family of Power-Divergence Statistics SDλ which are asymptotically χ2 distributed for the usual sampling schemes. We derive a limiting standard normal distribution for a standardization Tλ of SDλ under Poisson sampling by considering an approach with an increasing number of cells. In contrast to the χ2 asymptotics we do not require an increase of all expected values and thus meet the situation when data are sparse. Our limit result is useful even if a bootstrap test is used, because it implies that the statistic Tλ should be bootstrapped and not the sum SDλ. The peculiarity of our approach is that the models under test only specify associations. Hence we have to deal with an infinite number of nuisance parameters. We illustrate our approach with an application.     

On tests of independence between stochastic regressors and disturbances

In this paper two tests for testing the hypothesis that the stochastic endogenous regressors in a structural equation, embedded in a system of simultaneous structural equations, are independent of the disturbances in that equation are presented.     

The role of weighted distributions in stochastic modeling

C. R. Rao pointed out that “The role of statistical methodology is to extract the relevant information from a given sample to answer specific questions about the parent population” and raised the question “What population does a sample represent”? Wrong specification can lead to invalid inference giving rise to a third kind of error. Rao introduced the concept of weighted distributions as a method of adjustment applicable to many situations.

In this paper, we study the relationship between the weighted distributions and the parent distributions in the context of reliability and life testing. These relationships depend on the nature of the weight function and give rise to interesting connections between the different ageing criteria of the two distributions. As special cases, the length biased distribution, the equilibrium distribution of the backward and forward recurrence times and the residual life distribution, which frequently arise in practice, are studied and their relationships with the original distribution are examined. Their survival functions, failure rates and mean residual life functions are compared and some characterization results are established.     

Tests for the skewness parameter of two-piece double exponential distribution in the presence of nuisance parameters

In this paper, tests for the skewness parameter of the two-piece double exponential distribution are derived when the location parameter is unknown. Classical tests like Neyman structure test and likelihood ratio test (LRT), that are generally used to test hypotheses in the presence of nuisance parameters, are not feasible for this distribution since the exact distributions of the test statistics become very complicated. As an alternative, we identify a set of statistics that are ancillary for the location parameter. When the scale parameter is known, Neyman–Pearson's lemma is used, and when the scale parameter is unknown, the LRT is applied to the joint density function of ancillary statistics, in order to obtain a test for the skewness parameter of the distribution. Test for symmetry of the distribution can be deduced as a special case. It is found that power of the proposed tests for symmetry is only marginally less than the power of corresponding classical optimum tests when the location parameter is known, especially for moderate and large sample sizes.     

Tests for cycling in a signalling pathway

Summary.  Cellular signalling pathways, mediating receptor activity to nuclear gene activation, are generally regarded as feed forward cascades. We analyse measured data of a partially observed signalling pathway and address the question of possible feed-back cycling of involved biochemical components between the nucleus and cytoplasm. First we address the question of cycling in general, starting from basic assumptions about the system. We reformulate the problem as a statistical test leading to likelihood ratio tests under non-standard conditions. We find that the modelling approach without cycling is rejected. Afterwards, to differentiate two different transport mechanisms within the nucleus, we derive the appropriate dynamical models which lead to two systems of ordinary differential equations. To compare both models we apply a statistical testing procedure that is based on bootstrap distributions. We find that one of both transport mechanisms leads to a dynamical model which is rejected whereas the other model is satisfactory.