MCEN: a method of simultaneous variable selection and clustering for high-dimensional multinomial regression

Statistics and Computing - Multinomial regression is often used to investigate the association between potential independent variables and multi-class nominal responses such as multiple disease...     

Life Expectancy,Air Pollution,and Socioeconomic Factors: A Multivariate Time-Series Analysis of Beijing City,China

Social Indicators Research - This paper investigated the dynamic relationship between ife expectancy (LE) and its inflencing factors including, health care, socioeconomic, and environment factors...     

Time-consistent strategies for multi-period mean-variance portfolio optimization with the serially correlated returns

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss several different styles of multi-period mean-variance portfolio optimization problems under the serially correlated returns. We derive the time-consistent strategies for the classical multi-period mean-variance optimization with and without risk-free asset using a backward induction approach. We also propose an alternative multi-period mean-variance model, and the corresponding time-consistent strategies are derived. Whereafter, we provide some portfolio evaluation indexes and perform extensive empirical studies based on real data, aiming to provide useful advice for investors. To a large extent, the empirical results answer one important and practical question: in actual investment situations, which strategy is preferred by different investors?     

预期引导、政策冲击与股市波动——基于文本分析法的异质性诊断

防范股票市场异常波动是维护金融稳定和防控金融风险的关键一环。货币政策实践中,预期引导与政策冲击对股市波动的实际影响和传导机制迥然不同。现有文献对两者之于股票市场波动 的异质性影响多有讨论,但分歧明显。基于2005年到2019年中国人民银行各季度《货币政策执行报告》和《货币政策大事记》,本文分别构建表征货币政策预期引导强度和实际操作频度的代理变量,对上述指标之于同期A股市场主要行业指数的波动性影响做了多维诊断和系统梳理。研究发现,第一,预期引导效应和政策冲击效应对于股票市场波动性的影响存在显著异质性特征,预期引导有助于平抑市场波动,而频繁调控则会放大股市波动。第二,预期引导的明确性会制约其对股市波动的平缓作用,货币调控意愿的表达越明确,越有助于平抑股票市场波动;而更坚决的“严厉型”表述比态度相对温和的“温和型”表述能够更显著地平抑股票市场波动。第三,实际操作频度对股市波动的放大作用受制于具体调控方向,宽松型调控的频率上升仅会小幅放大股市波动,而紧缩型货币调控则会大幅抬升股市波动性。由此,从平抑股市异常波动、维持金融稳定的角度出发,强化货币政策的预期引导比相机抉择的频繁调控更为重要;在预期引导过程中,应当增强调控意愿表达的明确性和坚决性,以限制其对金融市场运行带来的扰动。     

高质量均衡:青年发展理念的新趋向

面对关切未来的战略性的青年发展议题,首当其冲需要阐明和思考的是青年发展理念问题.青年发展理念的方法论意义及其鲜明的实践指向,为适应时代发展、回应时代主题铸造了价值根基.高质量均衡发展应成为新发展阶段中国青年发展理念的新趋向,这一发展理念的核心旨向在于吁求公平与质量兼顾的发展,保证社会和人的整体均衡发展.践行该发展理念的可行路径,可以重点关注青年公共政策的制定、青年发展项目的 实施、青年发展评价的反馈等方面.     

论推进新时代家校协同育人的关键节点

我国青少年中存在的许多心理健康问题,究其原因,都同家庭和学校合作不畅密切相关。家校协同育人落而不实是新时代青少年教育亟待破解的难题。问题的根源在于家校协同育人共识度不高、政策法规支撑不力、主体责任落实不到位等。中小学班主任在家校协同育人中具有角色优势,应通过政策法规明确班主任在家校协同育人中的主体地位,发挥其重要作用;对此,要更新观念,提高教育主管部门、学校、班主任、家庭的协同共育意识;要加强培训,提高班主任家庭教育指导水平;要明确任务,增强家校协同育人实效;要完善制度、健全机制,推进家校协同育人高效有序开展。     

Implications of welfare reform on the elderly: a case study of provider, advocate, and consumer perspectives

Whereas many studies of welfare reform have focused on effects on children and families, little research has examined the implications of welfare reform for the elderly. This case study incorporates interviews with service providers for the aging, members of advocacy organizations, and two focus groups of older consumers conducted in the multi-ethnic urban community of San Francisco. Study findings suggest that welfare reform has had both direct and indirect effects on the elderly and their services in the study community. Direct effects derive primarily from changes in the welfare reform legislation that had the effect of undermining both immigrants' eligibility for and claiming of public assistance benefits. Indirect effects on older persons include increased child-care demands upon grandparents. The case study data bear on a significant policy change within the broader trend of devolution at a historical point when anti-immigrant sentiment in the United States was running high.     

"转注"及其他

"转注"是"六书"中意见分歧最多的造字法则之一.文章论述了"转注"与"六书"中其他类别的关系,分析了不同的"转注"观体现的转注字的特点,并从历史与心理的角度揭示"转注"字的成因,根据<说文?叙>及历史背景来探明许慎"转注"字解说失误的内在原因.     

用词『抓拍』城市

我国城市因其所处地理位置、自然环境、人文环境和经济社会发展环境的不同,各具特色.作为一个城市规划师,每到一座城市都应当深入、细致地观察该城市的独到之处,并把它抓拍下来,以增强对该城市的基本认识.这对于进一步了解和规划该城市的发展建设是有好处的,同时可以陶冶情操、抒发情怀,进而感染别人,达成对该城市的共识.     

区域交通系统的发展演进对区域旅游产业的影响与优化研究

区域交通系统是区域经济一体化过程中最重要的基础条件和支撑要素,对区域旅游产业的影响极为深远.文章探讨了我国区域交通系统存在的问题及与区域旅游产业协同演进的轨迹,阐述了区域交通系统与区域旅游产业之间的关系,在此基础上进一步对区域交通系统动态发展影响区域旅游产业的维度进行了分析,提出了完善区域旅游交通线路、加强交通节点城市建设等优化的路径和措施.