Model of Combined Prevision: An Application of the Monthly Series of Dengue Notifications in the State of Pernambuco

In this paper we state and justify a two-stage sampling procedure for selecting a subset of size m containing the t best of k independent normal populations, when the ranking parameters are the population means. We do not assume that the variances of the populations are known or equal. Discrete event simulation studies are often concerned with choosing one or more system designs which are best in some sense. We present empirical results from a typical simulation application for which the observations are not normally distributed.     

Sexual Offenses Against Elderly People: Forensic Evaluation and Judicial Outcome

Forensic evaluation reports and judicial outcomes regarding older victims of suspected sexual offenses were retrospectively reviewed. During this period, a total of 14 cases were registered, corresponding to 0.3% of nonfatal crimes against elderly and 0.6% of the total of sexual crimes reported. All the victims were female. The majority lived alone and did not have limitations in communication, orientation, ambulation, or autonomy. The offenders were all male (17 to 81 years old); most were known to the victims and had history of previous disruptive behaviors. The majority of the sexual offenses occurred in the victims’ homes, and the offenders tended to use physical violence. Forensic evaluation was crucial for the identification of physical and biological evidence, and forensic conclusions were positively correlated with the judicial outcome of each case. High prosecution and conviction rates were also observed.     

Individual differences in referral for help for severe emotional difficulties in adolescence

Adolescents with emotional distress may find help-seeking an extremely daunting endeavor. However, different adolescent population sectors relate differently to help-seeking for severe emotional difficulties. Gender and ethnic group are among the central factors influencing attitudes towards seeking emotional help. One of the possible mechanisms explaining these cross-group differences is self-esteem. The psychological price of seeking help could be admission of incompetence and feelings of failure, emotions that can be threatening, particularly to adolescents' self-esteem. In the present study, the psychological price of seeking help was manipulated by comparing the ease with which adolescents would self-refer for a severe emotional problem as opposed to referring another for the same problem, and the influence of gender, ethnic group differences and level of self esteem in both situations. The first hypothesis predicting greater ease of referral in the other-referral condition compared to self-referral was confirmed. The second hypothesis predicting general preference of informal help agents than the formal help agents was confirmed. The third hypothesis predicting gender differences such that girls would show higher ease of referral than boys from the different help agents was confirmed. The fourth hypothesis predicting that Jewish-Israeli adolescents would show greater ease of referral than Arab-Israeli adolescents was confirmed. An additional exploratory question examined the interaction between self-esteem and self versus other-referral on ease of referral for help. A significant interaction emerged only for help from the family. Adolescents with low self-esteem showed no differences in self versus other-referral, but adolescents with high self-esteem were more willing to refer others than themselves to seek help. These findings emphasize the importance of a sensitive needs assessment approach in designing mental health service delivery for youth.     

Uncertainty with ordinal likelihood information

We present a model that is closely related to the so-called models of choice under complete uncertainty, in which the agent has no information about the probability of the outcomes. There are two approaches within the said models: the state space-based approach, which takes into account the possible states of nature and the correspondence between states and outcomes; and the set-based approach, which ignores such information, and solves certain difficulties arising from the state space-based approach. Kelsey (Int Econ Rev 34:297–308, 1993) incorporates into a state space-based framework the assumption that the agent has ordinal information about the likelihood of the states. This paper incorporates this same assumption into a set-based framework, thus filling a theoretical gap in the literature. Compared to the set-based models of choice under complete uncertainty we introduce the information about the ordinal likelihood of the outcomes while, compared to Kelsey’s approach, we incorporate the advantages of describing uncertainty environments from the set-based perspective. We present an axiomatic study that includes adaptations of some of the axioms found in the related literature and we characterize some rules featuring different combinations of information about the ordinal likelihood of the outcomes and information about their desirability.     

The multinomial logistic regression model for predicting the discharge status after liver transplantation: estimation and diagnostics analysis

The multinomial logistic regression model (MLRM) can be interpreted as a natural extension of the binomial model with logit link function to situations where the response variable can have three or more possible outcomes. In addition, when the categories of the response variable are nominal, the MLRM can be expressed in terms of two or more logistic models and analyzed in both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. However, few discussions about post modeling in categorical data models are found in the literature, and they mainly use Bayesian inference. The objective of this work is to present classic and Bayesian diagnostic measures for categorical data models. These measures are applied to a dataset (status) of patients undergoing kidney transplantation.     

The Macro Content of PRSPs: Assessing the Need for a More Flexible Macroeconomic Policy Framework

This article analyses the content of 15 Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers from a growth and poverty reduction perspective. Contrary to new trends in developed and middle‐income countries, their policy frameworks lack the necessary flexibility to deal with external shocks and address macroeconomic volatility appropriately. Their fiscal and monetary policies are too narrowly focused on fiscal balance and price stability and consequently pay too little attention to economic fluctuations arising from external shocks, which have major effects on poverty and growth. To address these issues, the article proposes a set of policy measures, including avoidance of excessively tight inflation and fiscal targets (with provisions for fluctuations in commodity prices), more room for countercyclical policy and the adoption of permanent safety nets.     

Asymptotic distribution of data-driven smoothers in density and regression estimation under dependence

We consider automatic data-driven density, regression and autoregression estimates, based on any random bandwidth selector h/_T. We show that in a first-order asymptotic approximation they behave as well as the related estimates obtained with the “optimal” bandwidth h_T as long as h_T/h_T → 1 in probability. The results are obtained for dependent observations; some of them are also new for independent observations.     

Classifying Speech Sonority Functional Data using a Projected Kolmogorov-Smirnov Approach

This paper addresses a linguistically motivated question of classification of functional data, namely the statistical classification of languages according to their rhythmic features. This is an important open problem in phonology. The analysis is based on the information provided by the sonority, which is an index of local regularity of the speech signal. Our main tool is the projected Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This is a new goodness of fit test for functional data. The result obtained supports the linguistic conjecture of the existence of three rhythmic classes.     

Visualising Gender Wage Differences in the European Union

The purpose of this article is to illustrate differences in the gender wage gap in 13 EU member states, using figures taken from the Household Panel for 2000. The methodology is based primarily on the kernel density functions of men's and women's wages. A range of situations can be observed from the Mediterranean countries (with a smaller gender pay gap) to the very specific cases of Austria and the UK and to northern European countries where the gender pay gap is chiefly the result of a larger proportion of men at higher‐paid levels. We also offer conclusions on the relevance of public employment, part‐time employment and short‐term hiring to explain the gender wage gap in each of the countries studied.