Evaluation of an analysis approach used to account for extra-variation in clustered categorical responses

This article presents the results of a simulation study investigating the performance of an approach developed by Miller and Landis (1991) for the analysis of clustered categorical responses. Evaluation of this “two-step” approach, which utilizes the method of moments to estimate the extra-variation pardmeters and subsequently incorporates these parameters into estimating equations for modelling the marginal expectations, is carried out in an experimental setting involving a comparison between two groups of observations. We assume that data for both groups are collected from each cluster and responses are measured on a three-point ordinal scale. The performance of the estimators used in both “steps” of the analysisis investigated and comparisons are made to an alternative analysismethod that ignores the clustering. The results indicate that in the chosen setting the test for a difference between groups generally operatbs at the nominal α=0.05 for 10 or more clusters and hasincreasing power with both an increasing number of clusters and an inrreasing treatment effect. These results provide a striking contrasc to those obtained from an improper analysis that ignores clustering.     

Option pricing for generalized distributions

The Black Scholes formula has been widely used to price financial instruments. The derivation of this formula is based on the assumption of lognormally distributed returns which is often in poor agreement with actual data. An option pricing formula based on the generalized beta of the second kind (GB2) is presented. This formula includes the Black Scholes formula as a special case and accommodates a wide variety of nonlognormally distributed returns. The sensitivity of option values to departures from the skewness and kurtosis associated with the lognormal distribution is investigated.     

Extension of two-sided test to multiple treatment trials

In a two-treatment trial, a two-sided test is often used to reach a conclusion, Usually we are interested in doing a two-sided test because of no prior preference between the two treatments and we want a three-decision framework. When a standard control is just as good as the new experimental treatment (which has the same toxicity and cost), then we will accept both treatments. Only when the standard control is clearly worse or better than the new experimental treatment, then we choose only one treatment. In this paper, we extend the concept of a two-sided test to the multiple treatment trial where three or more treatments are involved. The procedure turns out to be a subset selection procedure; however, the theoretical framework and performance requirement are different from the existing subset selection procedures. Two procedures (exclusion or inclusion) are developed here for the case of normal data with equal known variance. If the sample size is large, they can be applied with unknown variance and with the binomial data or survival data with random censoring.     

Comments on specification of household expenditure functions and equivalence scales by nonparametric regression

This paper considers Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and Likelihood Ratio (LR) tests for determining the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive system. n order to deal with outliers and possible fat-tailedness of the error process, non-Gaussian likelihoods are used to carry out the estimation. The limiting distributions of the tests based on these non-Gaussian pseudo-)likelihoods are derived. These distributions depend on nuisance parameters. An operational procedure is proposed to perform inference. It appears that the tests based on non-Gaussian pseudo-likelihoods are much more powerful than their Gaussian counterparts if the errors are fat-tailed. Moreover, the operational LM-type test has a better overall performance than the LR-type test. Copyright O 1998 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.     

On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions

Periodic autoregressions are characterised by autoregressive structures that vary with the season. If a time series is periodically integrated, one needs a seasonally varying differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. When the periodic regression model contains constants and trends with unrestricted parameters, the data can show diverging seasonal deterministic trends. In this paper we derive explicit expressions for parameter restrictions that result in common deterministic trends under periodic trend stationarity and periodic integration.     

Institutions,inculcation, and black racial identity: pigmentocracy vs. the rule of hypodescent

This research paper investigates the effect political institutions have on black racial identity. In particular, I study individual inculcation in contexts where political institutions institutionalize either of two forms of racial social structures – a pigmentocracy (the Dominican Republic), or the rule of hypodescent (the US South), and the effect such inculcation has on black racial identity. I sampled 101 respondents from the Dominican Republic and 102 from the state of Mississippi, USA. Consistent with the basic assumptions of my hypotheses, respondents in the Dominican Republic study sites showed a weaker degree of identification with blackness vis-à-vis something ‘whiter’. Nevertheless, respondents in the Dominican Republic sites demonstrated a stronger identification with blackness than what most conventional observers would have anticipated. Respondents in the Mississippi study sites showed a stronger sense of identification with blackness. Surprisingly, however, Mississippi respondents demonstrated a larger degree of neutrality than expected in their belief of being of a mixed racial heritage rather than just a black African heritage.     

Law and Identity in Spatial Contests

Law has had a traditional reference to land, conceived as territory, in the notion of a jurisdiction, where the law of the land applies equally to all individuals. Recent critiques of this view have suggested that a plurality of laws may apply in particular places. How this spatial pluralism impacts on dominant views of law is considered through two instances in which law has interacted with competing conceptions of place and territory in relations between European and Indigenous Australians. Space, law and identity are seen to constitute each other in complex forms. Indigenous beliefs and practices challenge the claims to universality of Western conceptions of law and space deriving from Roman law and spatial practices.     

Stochastic Modelling of Times to Temperature for Furnaces Supplying Titanium Blooms to a Rolling Mill at TIMET

In conjunction with TIMET at Waunarlwydd (Swansea, UK) a model has been developed that will optimise the scheduling of various blooms to their eight furnaces so as to minimise the time taken to roll these blooms into the finished mill products. This production scheduling model requires reliable data on times taken for the various furnaces that heat the slabs and blooms to reach the temperatures required for rolling. These times to temperature are stochastic in nature and this paper identifies the distributional form for these times using the generalised F distribution as a modelling framework. The times to temperature were found to be similarly distributed over all furnaces. The identified distributional forms were incorporated into the scheduling model to optimise a particular campaign that was run at TIMET Swansea. Amongst other conclusion it was found that, compared to the actual campaign, the model produced a schedule that reduced the makespan by some 35%.     

Non-parametric estimation of population size from capture–recapture data when the capture probability depends on a covariate

Summary.  In capture–recapture experiments the capture probabilities may depend on individual covariates such as an individual's weight or age. Typically this dependence is modelled through simple parametric functions of the covariates. Here we first demonstrate that misspecification of the model can produce biased estimates and subsequently develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the functional relationship between the probability of capture and a single covariate. This estimator is then incorporated in a Horvitz–Thompson estimator to estimate the size of the population. The resulting estimators are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to a data set on captures of the Mountain Pygmy Possum.     

Quantifying the Distribution of Inhalation Exposure in Human Populations: 2. Distributions of Time Spent by Adults, Adolescents, and Children at Home, at Work, and at School

Using distributions of time spent at various ventilation levels, ranges of inhalation exposure in the population can be established. Distributions of exposure time were determined using results of a study by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) which focused on time spent by humans participating in various activities and the locations where the activities occurred. The daily at-home activities from the CARB study were assigned to one of three ventilation levels, generating aggregate time periods. Distinct age and gender populations were identified, and distributions for aggregate time were established for these populations at each of the ventilation levels. In addition to aggregate time spent at home, distributions for various ages and genders were established for aggregate time spent at school and work. By combining distributions of aggregate time with corresponding ventilation rates, the distribution of inhalation rates can be established for at home, at work, and at school exposures.