Mixed probability models for dry and wet spells

When identifying the best model for representing the behavior of rainfall distribution based on a sequence of dry (wet) days, focus is usually given on the fitted model with the least number of estimated parameters. If the model with lesser number of parameters is found not adequate for describing a particular data distribution, the model with a higher number of parameters is recommended. Based on several probability models developed by previous researchers in this field, we propose five types of mixed probability models as the alternative to describe the distribution of dry (wet) spells for daily rainfall events. The mixed probability models comprise of the combination of log series distribution with three other types of models, which are Poisson distribution (MLPD), truncated Poisson distribution (MLTPD), and geometric distribution (MLGD). In addition, the combination of the two log series distributions (MLSD) and the mixed geometric with the truncated Poisson distribution (MGTPD) are also introduced as the alternative models. Daily rainfall data from 14 selected rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the periods of 1975 to 2004 were used in this present study. When selecting the best probability model to describe the observed distribution of dry (wet) spells, the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) was considered. The results revealed that MLGD was the best probability model to represent the distribution of dry spells over the Peninsular.     

The Ancestry Question and Ethnic Heterogeneity: The Case of Arab Americans

This article uses US Census data to investigate change over time in Arab American profiles. In 2000, a higher proportion of children (0 to 13 years of age), women, and those who lived in the Northeast identified with an Arab/non‐Arab ancestry compared to an Arab‐only ancestry. In 1980 and 2000, a higher proportion (~90%) of those who identified with an Arab/non‐Arab ancestry was US born compared to only one‐half of those who identified with an Arab‐only ancestry. Those who identified with an Arab‐only ancestry were more likely to not be US citizens than those who identified with an Arab/non‐Arab ancestry. These findings suggest Arab Americans are a heterogeneous group.     

Characteristics of men and women who complete or exit from an on-line internet sexuality questionnaire: a study of instrument dropout biases

This study compared respondents who completed an Internet sexuality questionnaire and those who dropped out before completion. The study was in Swedish and comprised 3,614 respondents over a 2-week period (53% males, 47% females). There were significant differences between males, of whom 51% dropped out before completion of the 175-item questionnaire, and females, of whom 43% dropped out. Dropout in both genders followed a curve of negative acceleration. The data suggest that dropout is likely to be significant and gender and demographically biased, and to occur significantly earlier for men than for women. Geography, education, sexual orientation, age, relationship status, living arrangements, and Internet connection speed were related to dropout for men, while only relationship status and living arrangements, which were in the opposite direction from men, were related to dropout in women.     

Modeling Risk‐Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects

Knowledge on failure events and their associated factors, gained from past construction projects, is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. However, a number of circumstances are constraining its wider use. Such knowledge is usually scarce, seldom documented, and even unavailable when it is required. Further, there exists a lack of proven methods to integrate and analyze it in a cost‐effective way. This article addresses possible options to overcome these difficulties. Focusing on limited but critical potential failure events, the article demonstrates how knowledge on a number of important potential failure events in tunnel works can be integrated. The problem of unavailable or incomplete information was addressed by gathering judgments from a group of experts. The elicited expert knowledge consisted of failure scenarios and associated probabilistic information. This information was integrated using Bayesian belief‐networks‐based models that were first customized in order to deal with the expected divergence in judgments caused by epistemic uncertainty of risks. The work described in the article shows that the developed models that integrate risk‐related knowledge provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures.     

Three Critical Characteristics of Leadership: Character,Stewardship, Experience

There is no one definition of leadership. The leadership equation is never set or fixed. Time, place, specific problems, the particular parties involved all play a role in the leadership equation. Nor is there one specific list of attributes, virtues, or skills that all leaders must and do possess. Nonetheless, we argue that at its core, all forms of ethical leadership are based on three elemental ingredients: character, stewardship, and experience.     

Socio-economic status and life satisfaction in Turkey

The relationship between one's objective living conditions and his/her subjective well-being is a problematic one. This paper discusses the results of a survey conducted in Turkey to explore the impacts of socio-economic status on satisfaction with various domains of life, and satisfaction of basic, and social and psychological needs. The results from the univariate, bivariate analyses and the multiple discriminant analysis indicate that socio-economic status is a strong determining factor in satisfaction with life domains and satisfaction of needs.     

The role of crisis in family crisis intervention: Do crisis experience and crisis change matter?

Evaluation studies of crisis intervention have focused on prevention of out-of-home placement of children or family functioning, but largely neglected the aspect of crisis. The present study examined crisis in 183 families receiving Family Crisis Intervention (FCI), addressing crisis characteristics and crisis change. In questionnaires children and parents were asked about their definition and experience of crisis and about their need for help. Results show that all families but one were in crisis at the beginning of the intervention, although the perception and extent of crisis differed among respondents. Crisis decreased from baseline to posttest according to clients and crisis intervention workers, but was not absent after the intervention. Combined with an unexpected pattern of reported family balance in the months before FCI, this result challenges the 4-6 weeks time span assumption of a crisis period. Variations in perception of crisis, clients' need for help, and possible crisis patterns are discussed, addressing theoretical and practical implications for family crisis intervention.