Risk Communication in The Netherlands: The Monitored Introduction of the EC "Post-Seveso" Directive

Implementation of article 8.1 of the EC-"Seveso" Directive (82/501/EC) is now under way in many countries in Europe. In The Netherlands, the implementation of the Directive started with a carefully monitored introduction of active information provision at two sites (Dordrecht and Elst). This introduction was supported by a multidisciplinary research group. This group helped to develop the risk communication program and also played a role in the evaluation of the program. This paper describes these processes and their evaluation. We will focus on the design of the risk communication programs and the effects of the programs on knowledge and attitudes of the local target groups. This effort and its results clearly started an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies at several organizational levels (local, regional, and national), and industrial organizations (individual firms and organizations of industries). Monitoring the design, the implementation, and the effects of active information provision proves an effective means to gain experience with the implementation of the Seveso Directive and could help to facilitate further implementation.     

Avoiding evaluation cooptation. Lessons from a renal dialysis evaluation.

An evaluation of the impact of terminating contracts to transport low-income patients for renal dialysis demonstrates how evaluators may become apologists for management and conduct studies too narrow for effective decision making. The evaluation found that patients continued to receive treatment; their death rates had not increased. Changes in their economic and emotional status were not studied; consequently, the evaluators erroneously concluded that the clients had not been seriously harmed. The article reviews the process the evaluation used. The authors conclude that to avoid cooptation, evaluators need independent information available through conducting and analyzing pilot studies and meeting with program constituents. To avoid overly narrow studies, the next level of management should participate in their design. To use the information effectively, evaluators need to see themselves as advisors rather than technicians.     

Survey investigations of the hidden economy: Some methodological results

In 1982 the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics started large-scale survey research on the supply of hidden labour. As it was not known what type of survey would yield the best results, eight survey variants were tried out. They differed in the medium of communication between the researcher and respondent (face-to-face, mail and telephone) and in interview design (direct approach, gradual approach and ‘free-form’ conversation). Several criteria were used to assess the survey variants on their suitability for obtaining statistical information on the magnitude and structure of the hidden labour market. With respect to non-response and item non-response, face-to-face methods yielded the best results. In combating incorrect responses, a gradual introduction of the topic ‘hidden income’ is to be preferred.     

Were UK Culture, Sport and Recreation Charities Prepared for the 2008 Economic Downturn? An Application of Tuckman and Chang’s Measures of Financial Vulnerability

UK charities experienced rapid growth during the middle years of the first decade of the new millennium. The issue investigated in this study is whether the charities took the opportunity to strengthen their financial positions before the economic recession of 2008–2009. Having evaluated, and established the empirical robustness of, Tuckman and Chang’s measures of financial vulnerability, they are used as the basis for constructing a Charities Financial Exposure Index (CFEI). Variants of the index are applied to a panel of more than 300 large UK charities in the Culture, Sport and Recreation sector for the period 2002–2007. The findings are that by 2008 these charities were in a stronger financial position than they had been in 2002 and were therefore better prepared to face the onset of the so-called credit crunch recession.     

Bayesian Analysis of an Unobserved-Component Time Series Model of GDP With Markov-Switching and Time-Varying Growths

We propose an unobserved-component time series model of gross domestic product that includes Markov switching as an unobserved component. In addition to a trend component, the model has two time-varying drift components. One drift represents the expected rate of growth during recession; the other drift represents the expected rate during expansion. Estimates indicate a substantial decline in the latter annual rate for the United States from 6.4% in 1950 to 3.6% by 1990. We have employed weak priors based on prewar data. The estimation makes use of the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis algorithm.