Reducing Burglary and Fear among Older People: An Evaluation of a Help the Aged and Homesafe Initiative in Plymouth

Despite their low levels of risk, older people have been targeted by a number of crime reduction initiatives. This article describes an evaluation of one burglary reduction initiative in Plymouth that involved the local Plymouth Homesafe scheme and Help the Aged. The scheme clearly targeted the more vulnerable groups within the community, and clients were extremely positive about the service and its implementation. However, there was little evidence that they expressed lower levels of fear of crime than did older people in general. This leads to a discussion of different levels of vulnerability and the way different subcategories of client perceived and benefited from the scheme.     

Some Properties and Generalizations of Non-negative Bayesian Time Series Models

We study the most basic Bayesian forecasting model for exponential family time series, the power steady model (PSM) of Smith, in terms of observable properties of one-step forecast distributions and sample paths. The PSM implies a constraint between location and spread of the forecast distribution. Including a scale parameter in the models does not always give an exact solution free of this problem, but it does suggest how to define related models free of the constraint. We define such a class of models which contains the PSM. We concentrate on the case where observations are non-negative. Probability theory and simulation show that under very mild conditions almost all sample paths of these models converge to some constant, making them unsuitable for modelling in many situations. The results apply more generally to non-negative models defined in terms of exponentially weighted moving averages. We use these and related results to motivate, define and apply very simple models based on directly specifying the forecast distributions.     

Interactive technology assessment of paediatric cochlear implantation

Interactive technology assessment is a novel approach to evaluating (health) technology, which philosophically draws from the works of Rawls and Habermas. That is, it seeks to organise a practical setting for discursive ethics in order to find a legitimate basis for policy to be pursued when the technology under scrutiny features a moral controversy. Interactive technology assessment involves a cycle of interviews with all stakeholders, who are explicitly asked to respond (anonymously) to the concerns and issues raised by other participants. This cycle is completed repeatedly, so that a process of vicarious learning develops. This process aims at identifying issues agreed and disagreed upon, on the basis of which widely endorsed policy recommendations can be formulated. This chapter involves an interactive technology assessment of paediatric cochlear implantation. The rationale, the design, and the results are explained, as well as the main ethical aspects of the procedure.

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Zusammenfassung Interactive technology assessment (interaktive Technologiefolgenabschätzung) ist ein neuer Ansatz zur Bewertung von (Medizin-)Technologie, der in philosophischer Hinsicht auf Arbeiten von Rawls und Habermas zurückgreift, das heißt, sie versucht eine praktische Situation für diskursive Ethik zu organisieren, um eine legitime Grundlage für eine Politik zu finden, die zu verfolgen ist, wenn die betreffende Technologie durch eine moralische Kontroverse gekennzeichnet ist. Zur interaktiven Technologiefolgenabschätzung gehört ein Zyklus von Befragungen aller Interessengruppen, die explizit gebeten werden, sich zu den Bedenken und Fragen anderer Teilnehmer (anonym) zu äußern. Dieser Zyklus wird mehrmals wiederholt, sodass sich ein Prozess mittelbaren Lernens entwickelt. Dieser Prozess hat das Ziel, Punkte zu identifizieren, in denen Übereinstimmung herrscht, und Punkte, über die die Teilnehmer sich nicht einigen können. Auf dieser Basis können dann allgemein gebilligte Politikempfehlungen formuliert werden. Dieses Kapitel befasst sich zum Beispiel mit der interaktiven Bewertung der Technologie der Cochlea-Implantation in Kindern. Es erklärt die Begründung, den Entwurf und die Ergebnisse der Prozedur sowie ihre wichtigsten ethischen Aspekte.

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Résumé Lévaluation technologique interactive est une nouvelle approche pour évaluer les technologies (médicales), qui tire son origine des travaux de Rawls et Habermas. Cela signifie quelle tente de dorganiser une configuration pratique pour léthique discursive, afin de trouver une base légitime aux politiques à suivre lorsque la technologie examinée fait lobjet dune controverse morale. Lévaluation technologique interactive implique un cycle de sondages auprès de tous les groupes concernés, auxquels il est explicitement demandé de sexprimer (anonymement) sur les préoccupations et les questions soulevées par dautres participants. Ce cycle est répété à plusieurs reprises, de sorte quun processus dapprentissage indirect se développe. Cette démarche vise à identifier les points suscitant laccord ou le désaccord, sur la base desquels des recommandations politiques approuvées par une large majorité peuvent être formulées. Ce chapitre porte sur lévaluation technologique interactive dans le cas des implants cochléaires en pédiatrie. Il présente le raisonnement, la conception et les résultats de la démarche de même que ses principaux aspects éthiques.

     

Food Safety in the Domestic Environment: An Interdisciplinary Investigation of Microbial Hazards During Food Preparation

It has been established that, to a considerable extent, the domestic hygiene practices adopted by consumers can result in a greater or lesser microbial load in prepared meals. In the research presented here, an interdisciplinary study is reported in which interviews, observations of consumers preparing a recipe, and microbial contamination of the finished meals were compared. The results suggest that, while most consumers are knowledgeable about the importance of cross-contamination and heating in preventing the occurrence of foodborne illness, this knowledge is not necessarily translated into behavior. The adoption of habitual cooking practices may also be important. Potentially risky behaviors were, indeed, observed in the domestic food preparation environment. Eighteen of the participants made errors in food preparation that could potentially result in cross-contamination, and seven participants allowed raw meat juices to come in contact with the final meal. Using a tracer microorganism the log reduction as a result of consumer preparation was estimated at an average of log 4.1 cfu/salad. When combining these findings, it was found that cross-contamination errors were a good predictor for log reduction. Procedural food safety knowledge (i.e., knowledge proffered after general open questions) was a better predictor of efficacious bacterial reduction than declarative food safety knowledge (i.e., knowledge proffered after formal questioning). This suggests that motivation to prepare safe food was a better indicator of actual behavior than knowledge about food safety per se.     

Confusion behind the dikes

Twenty years ago Dutch society was hit by a serious rise of unemployment that put the Dutch welfare state to the test: Should the welfare state be able to preserve full employment and prevent unemployment from becoming high and chronic as in the 1930s? And should the welfare state be able to prevent mass poverty as in the 1930s? The answers are well known. The ‘Dutch welfare state has not been able to forestall persistent high unemployment and, in fact, has more or less produced a dual society (Zweidrit-telgesellschaft, sociéte à deux vitesses), although without producing mass poverty. This article goes into three issues related to these developments. A bird's-eye view is presented of the unemployment trajectory of the 1970s, 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. The position of the Netherlands relative to other countries in Europe is unfolded. Some issues concerning the effects of chronic unemployment on the functioning of the Dutch political economy are presented.