李达对中国社会主义革命和建设道路的探索

李达是马克思主义中国化的早期探索者,在大论战中对各种"社会思潮"进行了辩证的分析,初步回答了"什么是社会主义"的基本问题,为科学社会主义的传播开辟了主流阵地,并从领导核心、经济建设、发展生产、依靠力量和思想路线等角度系统阐发了社会主义建设需遵循的一般规律。建国后,李达围绕我国社会主义改造、法制建设、外交政策和科教工作展开了具体探索,形成了丰富的社会主义改造和建设思想,对今天的社会主义现代化建设仍具有重要的指导意义。     

Three‐Stage Decision‐Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control

A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three‐stage decision‐making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, NUC ship, and ships passing by) under resource constraint in the first stage, (2) to select the most feasible options by comparing the similarity of the new case and existing cases in the second stage, and (3) to make decisions considering the cooperation between the involved organizations by using a developed Bayesian network in the third stage. Consequently, this work provides a useful tool to achieve well‐organized management of NUC ships.     

Housing and children: simultaneous decisions?—a cohort study of young adults’ housing and family formation decision

This study contributes to earlier research on homeownership and childbearing by taking into account the potential simultaneity between these two life events. A dataset comprising three different Swedish birth cohorts suggests that these are events that are indeed simultaneous. Different tests indicate that taking this simultaneity into account gives an overall statistically significant improvement of the model fit. However, this result is most obvious for those young adults who faced increasing problems on the housing market. The childbearing decision of these cohorts also seems to be more sensitive to changes in the user cost.     

Unconditional government social cash transfer in Africa does not increase fertility

Among policymakers, a common perception surrounding the effects of cash transfer programmes, particularly unconditional programmes targeted to families with children, is that they induce increased fertility. We evaluate the Zambian Child Grant Programme, a government unconditional cash transfer targeted to families with a child under the age of 5 and examine impacts on fertility and household composition. The evaluation was a cluster randomized control trial, with data collected over 4 years from 2010 to 2014. Our results indicate that there are no programme impacts on overall fertility. Our results contribute to a small evidence base demonstrating that there are no unintended incentives related to fertility due to cash transfers.     

Beyond the Preschool Years: Children’s Perceptions About Starting Kindergarten

This article describes a research study that investigated three‐ and four‐year‐old Canadian preschool children’s perceptions about starting kindergarten. Findings from 33 focus‐group discussions suggest that children begin to formulate ideas about starting kindergarten prior to school entry. Children’s responses were grouped according to three themes, play versus academic activities and homework; getting bigger but still needing help; and rules. Overall, the responses highlighted their expectations regarding continuity and discontinuity between the two environments. These findings support the position that children should be given the opportunity to contribute to the planning of transition practices.     

混合研究方法的方法论、研究策略及应用——以消费模式研究为例

近年来,定量定性相结合的研究方法在社会科学中广泛应用,但鲜有研究注意到其方法论含义并科学地选取研究策略。事实上,学术界对于定量定性方法的结合仍有争议,而且不同的结合方法背后的本体论和认识论的含义也不同,对于研究结论的意义和作用也不同。本文以中产阶级消费模式的研究为例,详细阐述了该研究使用混合研究方法的原因、目的、方法论、具体研究策略及其应用。文章使用定量和定性的研究发现说明了混合研究方法如何丰富和深化了研究结论,如何以具有代表性的样本为背景挖掘了消费生活的复杂性和多面性。     

Can We Perceive Near Miss? An Empirical Study

Near misses are a special kind of reinforcement which increases one’s desire to play. The aim of this paper is to examine the perception of near misses in normal population. We used a slot machine simulation running on a PC, where participants had to play four rounds with different near miss ratios (0, 15, 30 and 45%). Our sample consisted of 159 individuals with mean age of 22.8 and with no or little gambling experience. For data analysis we used chi-squared goodness-of-fit test and exact binomial test. Despite the fact, that there was a notable effect of near misses results showed that the subjects could not perceive trials of them.     

Impact of physical activity and sedentary behaviour on fall risks in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

The objective of this work was to summarise and evaluate the evidence showing that physical activity is a protector factor as regards falls in older people. Relevant studies were identified through a systematic search in the MEDLINE and Cochrane Library, under the keywords of accidental fall/numerical data and risk factors, and with the bibliographies of retrieved papers. The combined odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval] for physical activity was 0.75 [0.64, 0.88] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?33%). For fall injury, it was 0.59 [0.47, 0.74] and, for falls in general, it rose to 0.94 [0.76, 1.17] with nil heterogeneity. The combined OR for sedentary factors was 1.14 [1.10, 1.82] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?36%). Regular physical activity in daily life yields significant reduction in falls in older people, especially falls with injuries.