Ecohydrological model for the quantification of ecosystem services provided by urban street trees

Urban green spaces have been recognized as an important source of ecosystem services, whose quantification requires the determination of quantities related to energy, water, carbon and soil nutrient content. In this paper we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that couples two existing models for water and nutrients in urban soil at the single street-tree scale. The model input are rainfall and irrigation, for water, and deposition and fertilization, for nitrogen, while the output are evapotranspiration, runoff and deep percolation, for water, and plant uptake and leaching, for nitrogen. The various terms are related to the amount of paved and impervious surfaces that surround the tree trunk and regulate the water and nutrient fluxes in and out the soil. Particular attention is paid to the effects of seasonal variations on plant water and nutrients through a temporal variation of the hydrologic variables (i.e., temperature and rainfall intensity and frequencies). The average model outputs are preliminarily compared with the scant existing literature data, supporting the model application to cities with different climatic conditions. The model results are used to estimate the potential for ecosystem services like tree cooling effects, soil carbon sequestration or storm-water management. Because of the minimal structure of the proposed model, it requires a very low amount of data, while accounting for the stochastic input of rainfall. In the context of climate change and increasing urbanization, the model may offer useful indications to urban planners to enhance ecosystem services while minimizing irrigation, fertilization and their related costs.     

Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators

The aim of this paper is to empirically study the effect of uncertainty on private consumption using a sample of Spanish households, and therefore, to test the existence of a precautionary motive for saving. Using data provided by the Spanish Survey of Household Finances and the Labour Force Survey we construct several uncertainty measures that are commonly used in the literature and an additional indicator based on job insecurity data, and we consequently estimate different econometric models under the life-cycle/permanent income hypothesis, including these measures of uncertainty. Our results are twofold: first, we find evidence in favour of the precautionary saving hypothesis. Secondly, we find that, unlike other variables related to the performance of the labour market (such as the unemployment rate) the job insecurity indicator is an appropriate variable to approximate income uncertainty in any macroeconomic context.     

(Sub) Optimality and (non) optimal satisficing in risky decision experiments

We implement a risky choice experiment based on one-dimensional choice variables and risk neutrality induced via binary lottery incentives. Each participant confronts many parameter constellations with varying optimal payoffs. We assess (sub)optimality, as well as (non)optimal satisficing by eliciting aspirations in addition to choices. Treatments differ in the probability that a binary random event, which are payoff—but not optimal choice—relevant is experimentally induced and whether participants choose portfolios directly or via satisficing, i.e., by forming aspirations and checking for satisficing before making their choice. By incentivizing aspiration formation, we can test satisficing, and in cases of satisficing, determine whether it is optimal.     

Testing homogeneity in semiparametric mixture case–control models

Parametric and semiparametric mixture models have been widely used in applications from many areas, and it is often of interest to test the homogeneity in these models. However, hypothesis testing is non standard due to the fact that several regularity conditions do not hold under the null hypothesis. We consider a semiparametric mixture case–control model, in the sense that the density ratio of two distributions is assumed to be of an exponential form, while the baseline density is unspecified. This model was first considered by Qin and Liang (2011 Qin, J., Liang, K.Y. (2011). Hypothesis testing in a mixture case–control model. Biometrics 67(1):182–198.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], biometrics), and they proposed a modified score statistic for testing homogeneity. In this article, we consider alternative testing procedures based on supremum statistics, which could improve power against certain types of alternatives. We demonstrate the connection and comparison among the proposed and existing approaches. In addition, we provide a unified theoretical justification of the supremum test and other existing test statistics from an empirical likelihood perspective. The finite-sample performance of the supremum test statistics was evaluated in simulation studies.     

损失模拟模型的模拟与检验

为帮助精算师在不同的数据环境下选择最优的准备金评估方法,美国非寿险精算师协会组织开发了一个产生模拟索赔数据的开源软件系统——损失模拟模型,然而损失模拟模型是否能够按指定参数要求产生模拟数据需要进行检验.文章采用不同的参数估计方法和拟合优度检验方法对模拟索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势以及不同险种索赔次数之间的相关结构进行了统计检验,结果表明损失模拟模型对索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势能够产生一致的模拟,而对索赔次数数据之间相关结构的模拟存在不稳定性.     

Perceptions of grandparents who provide auxiliary care: value transmission and child‐rearing practices

A grounded theory qualitative study was developed to explore how grandparents perceive their role as socializing agents. Forty‐two grandparents with grandchildren aged from 6 to 12 years old participated in this study. Data were collected through focus groups, which were conducted until reaching data saturation and analyzed using the constant comparative method. Four general conclusions emerged from the study: (i) grandparents recognized the importance of getting involved in the socialization of grandchildren as supporters of parents' socializing role, and the need to adapt to social changes; (ii) they emphasized traditional value that were perceived in decline, and combination of warmth and involvement were considered the best way to help grandchildren internalize values; (iii) interaction with grandchildren helped grandparents to feel active and useful, increased their life purpose and gave them a second chance to enjoy what they could not with their own children; and (iv) grandparents also accused burden and role ambiguity. These results show the importance of developing family policies that recognize grandparents' socializing role. Also, interventions that promote strategies that enable grandparents to perform their role more successfully and to cope with possible family conflicts should be developed.     

Urban land cover decreases the occurrence of a wetland endemic mammal and its associated vegetation

Urbanization and other land cover changes have been particularly detrimental to wetlands throughout the planet. One wetland specialist that may be sensitive to land cover changes surrounding wetlands is the round-tailed muskrat (Neofiber alleni; hereafter RTM). The RTM is a wetland obligate rodent that appears to have declined over the last half century and is a species of concern in Florida, where it is a near endemic. To determine if urbanization or other land cover influenced the distribution of RTMs we took a multi-scaled approach to examine the occurrence of RTMs and their associated vegetation in North-Central Florida. We detected RTMs on 19 of 72 sample plots and used a Classification And Regression Tree (CART) to determine that dogfennel (Eupatorium capillifolium) was negatively associated with RTMs and maidencane (Panicum hemitomon) was positively associated with their occurrence on sampling plots. Examining the influence of landscape composition for 2 km surrounding our plots we found that RTM occurrence was negatively related to urban land cover. Further, we found that dogfennel increased and maidencane decreased as urbanization increased in the surrounding landscape. Our research suggests that conservation of RTMs and their associated vegetation should focus on limiting urban sprawl at least within 2 km of wetlands.     

Urban habitats can affect body size and body condition but not immune response in amphibians

Does urbanization affect key life-history traits in native organisms? Some studies show that urban areas reduce diversity in certain taxa, but there is little insight into how these environments affect physiological and ecological traits. Urban areas have distinct physical structure and ecological processes compared to original habitats. The environmental changes associated with urban areas can influence the costs and benefits of different traits and behaviors of local organisms. Some of these effects have been explored in groups such as birds, but we might expect stronger effects in animals with reduced mobility, such as amphibians. Importantly, the effects of urban habitats on amphibians have not been explored, in spite that these are the most threatened vertebrate group in the world. Here, we compared three main traits related to the fitness of amphibians in urban and natural habitats: body size, body condition and immune response. To test the generality of our results, we assessed adult males of four amphibian species. We found that the body size was larger in urban environment populations in three of four studied species, while the body condition was better in the urban populations of two aquatic newt species. Finally, we found no effect of urbanization on the immune response of individuals of any species. In conclusion, we show that different species of amphibians may be affected differently by anthropogenic habitat alteration depending on their specific ecology.     

Nitrogen retention and loss in unfertilized lawns across a light gradient

A desirable function for terrestrial urban ecosystems is the mitigation of nitrogen (N) pollution associated with cities and suburbs. To assist in maximizing this function, identifying locations of sources and sinks of N in the urban environment is crucial to inform management strategies. Lawns are an extensive land cover in urbanized landscapes, and in general, they have demonstrated the capacity to function as a sink for N inputs. How N is cycled by lawns, however, is likely not uniform across the physical heterogeneity or management activities that exist in lawns. We investigated the influence of heterogeneity in light availability on N cycling in lawns that were irrigated but not fertilized. Light availability is affected by tree canopy and built structures and is, therefore, heterogeneous both within individual lawns and among lawns. Light is expected to control N retention and loss through effects on primary productivity. We experimentally examined N regulation over one calendar year by measuring net primary production (NPP), N retention using an isotopic tracer, and N leaching in existing unfertilized lawns under heterogeneous light conditions. We used a budgetary approach to estimate gaseous N loss which we assume is primarily via denitrification. Light functioned as a limiting resource for primary productivity. From low to high light conditions, annual NPP increased 177 to 430 g C?m^?2?y^?1 and retention of N isotope tracer increased from 50 to 65% as a result of increased retention in plants. Nitrate leaching losses were low overall and were not affected by light levels. Light availability regulated the fate of N inputs and unfertilized lawns may function as substantial sinks for reactive N through storage in the terrestrial system and N loss by denitrification. However, whether or not denitrification is generally an N sink will depend on the ratio of non-reactive (i.e., N₂) to reactive (i.e., N₂O, NO) denitrification products. Overall, we find that effective strategies for managing N sources and sinks in cities will likely need to consider light availability, particularly in systems receiving water subsidies via irrigation.