Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students

From individual level data for an entire cohort of undergraduate students in the 'old' universities in the UK, we use a binomial probit model to estimate the probability that an individual will 'drop out' of university before the completion of their degree course. We examine the cohort of students enrolling full time for a 3- or 4-year degree in the academic year 1989–1990. We find evidence to support both the hypothesis that the completion of courses by students is influenced by the extent of prior academic preparedness and the hypothesis that social integration at university is important. We also find an influence of unemployment in the county of prior residence, especially for poorer male students. Finally, we draw conclusions regarding the public policy of constructing university performance indicators in this area.     

Lessons learnt? Abuse in residential child care in Scotland

This paper draws on work carried out by Sen, Kendrick, Milligan and Hawthorn commissioned as pert of the Historic Abuse Systemic Review by the Scottish Executive in 2007. It considers the evidence‐based regarding abuse in residential child care from 1945 with a specific focus on Scotland. It reviews the context set for residential child care post‐1945 by the Clyde and Curtis reports, outlines how the residential child care sector developed following this, provides an overview of evidence and awareness of abuse in residential child care establishments after the 1948 Children's Act, giving particular consideration to the public inquiries and reviews of residential child care which there have been in Scotland, explores research evidence regarding the safety of convictions of residential child care workers found guilty of child abuse, and provides an overview of the main policy and practice developments which there have subsequently been in Scotland. The paper concludes by considering the progress that has been made in developing safeguards in Scotland and identifying areas where further research and development are required.     

Are bygones bygones?

This article reports an experiment which tests the principle of separability, i.e. that behaviour in a dynamic choice problem is independent of history and of unreachable eventualities. Although this is a well-known principle of orthodox decision theory and central to conventional economic modelling, it has been questioned on grounds suggested by non-expected utility models of choice under risk and by the psychology of affective influences on risk-taking. Our experimental design, which provides between-subjects tests of separability using three treatments in which the history preceding a decision is manipulated, is inspired by these concerns. We expose separability to a clean and harsh test, but find no evidence that it is violated.     

Gerontological social workers' perceived efficacy for influencing client outcomes

Using a sample of practitioners (n = 269) from the 2004 National Study of Licensed Social Workers, this article employs a quality assurance structure-process-outcome model to examine factors at the practitioner, workplace, and service delivery levels that influence the perceived efficacy of licensed gerontological social workers to affect client outcomes in the context of a highly challenging health care environment. A regression model accounted for 33.9% of the variance (adjusted R (2) = .291) in perceived efficacy with 3 aspects of service delivery satisfaction having significant effects: ability to address complex/chronic care, to influence the design of services, and to help clients navigate the system.     

Longitudinal perspectives on event history analysis

We discuss event histories from the point of view of longitudinal data analysis, comparing several possible inferential objectives. We show that the Nelson–Aalen estimate of a cumulative intensity may be derived as a limiting solution to a sequence of generalized estimating equations for intermittently observed longitudinal count data. We outline a potential use for the theory in interval-censored recurrent-event models, and demonstrate its applicability using data from a Toronto arthritis clinic. We also discuss connections with rate models, along with some implications for the longitudinal analyst.     

African American Family and Parenting Strategies in Impoverished Neighborhoods

This article considers how qualitative insights can inform quantitatively-derived neighborhood effects theories. Neighborhood effects theories argue that inner-city areas lack social and economic resources that promote the social mobility prospects of African American children. Consequently, children who grow up in impoverished neighborhoods are at risk for dropping out of school, bearing children prematurely, and engaging in delinquent activities. Qualitative studies, however, identify family and parenting strategies that buffer children from the risks associated with inner-city residence. When these practices are used, children are more likely to complete high school, forego premature childbearing, and participate in prosocial activities. Insights from qualitative studies expand on neighborhood effects theories by identifying variations in child social mobility prospects and the processes by which conventional outcomes are achieved. More specifically, qualitative studies focus attention on important factors that permit children to succeed, despite social and economic obstacles.