Bayesian Analysis of DNA Profiling Data in Forensic Identification Applications

The utilization of DNA evidence in cases of forensic identification has become widespread over the last few years. The strength of this evidence against an individual standing trial is typically presented in court in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) or its reciprocal (the profile match probability). The value of this LR will vary according to the nature of the genetic relationship between the accused and other possible perpetrators of the crime in the population. This paper develops ideas and methods for analysing data and evaluating LRs when the evidence is based on short tandem repeat profiles, with special emphasis placed on a Bayesian approach. These are then applied in the context of a particular quadruplex profiling system used for routine case-work by the UK Forensic Science Service.     

On the Limitations of Redundancies in the Improvement of System Reliability

Some program managers share a common belief that adding a redundant component to a system reduces the probability of failure by half. This is true only if the failures of the redundant components are independent events, which is rarely the case. For example, the redundant components may be subjected to the same external loads. There is, however, in general a decrease in the failure probability of the system. Nonetheless, the redundant element comes at a cost, even if it is less than that of developing the first one when both are based on the same design. Identical parts save the most in terms of design costs, but are subjected to common failure modes from possible design errors that limit the effectiveness of the redundancy. In the development of critical systems, managers thus need to decide if the costs of a parallel system are justified by the increase in the system's reliability. NASA, for example, has used redundant spacecraft to increase the chances of mission success, which worked well in the cases of the Viking and Voyager missions. These two successes, however, do not guarantee future ones. We present here a risk analysis framework accounting for dependencies to support the decision to launch at the same time a twin mission of identical spacecraft, given incremental costs and risk-reduction benefits of the second one. We illustrate this analytical approach with the case of the Mars Exploration Rovers launched by NASA in 2003, for which we had performed this assessment in 2001.     

SEX ROLE CONSIDERATIONS AND BEHAVIORAL MARITAL THERAPY: EQUAL DOES NOT MEAN IDENTICAL*

Despite the egalitarian position espoused in behavioral marital therapy, little attention has been paid to sex role issues and female-male differences. This paper explores advantages and disadvantages of behavioral marital therapy vis à vis the treatment of women and men. Features of behavioral marital therapy implicated as important in the consideration of sex role issues include underlying assumptions of egalitarianism, assumptions of external causality, and orientation toward action, as well as specific procedures such as goal setting, behavioral exchange and training in communication and problem-solving skills. Each of these features is evaluated with respect to clinical considerations as well as to research findings on female-male differences in marriage. The paper concludes with recommendations as to how behavioral marital therapy could become more sensitive to sex role issues.     

Some Implications for Management Development of Research into Managers' Moral Dilemmas

In this paper, we present two cases of moral dilemmas as told by the managers who had faced them. We analyse the cases, drawing on frameworks developed by Toffler (1986), Kohlberg (1981) and Maclagan (1990). We also comment on the broader findings of the research from which the cases were taken. These analyses and findings and those of other researchers (e.g. Waters et al., 1986) suggest a number of requisite ‘moral attributes’ for managers and have, we argue, significant implications for the curriculum for ethical education and development for managers and intending managers. One is that case material needs to reflect more strongly the actual experiences of practising managers; another is that there is scope for wider use of experiential methods on management ethics courses. We conclude with a call for a multifaceted approach to ethical education as a lifespan process entailing the development of personal and interpersonal skills and qualities, and self-knowledge as well as cognitive skills. While we acknowledge that ethical education needs to take account of learners' differing levels of prior experience, stages of moral development and levels of learning maturity, our over-riding concern is that learners are prepared for and helped to live through the very ‘real’ dilemmas that they are likely to experience in managerial work.     

Sensitivity to bodily nonverbal communication as a factor in practitioner-patient rapport

The relationship between physicians' nonverbal sensitivity and the satisfaction of their patients was tested in two field studies. In the first study, 40 physicians were given a film test of nonverbal sensitivity (the PONS test) and were evaluated by their patients. The second study was a replication using 31 additional physicians. Most noteworthy for research in therapeutic interaction, the present studies contained three methodological advances: (1) the use of actual patients' ratings of satisfaction with treatment, (2) the extension of research from psychological to medical settings, and (3) the use of a standardized test of nonverbal decoding skill. Physicians' skill at reading the emotion conveyed through the nonverbal channel of body movement was found to be significantly correlated with their interpersonal success with patients in the clinical setting.The authors would like to thank Donald Dickson, M.D., Mary Ann Spadaro, M.D., Louise M. Prince, John L. Helmuth, Jr., Helene M. Murphy, and the physicians and patients who participated in the research. Study I was supported by a Peter B. Livingston Fellowship from the Massachusetts Mental Health Center and Study II by a W. K. Kellogg Fellowship from the Hospital Research and Educational Trust, both to the senior author.     

Nonverbal decoding skill and attention to nonverbal cues: A research note

A measure of differential preference for attending to three channels of nonverbal communication was developed, with which scores for differential attention to face, body, and voice tone were generated for 17 college subjects. These scores were correlated with subjects' nonverbal decoding accuracy in the same three channels as measured by a standard test of decoding nonverbal cues. Significant positive relationships between channel preference and accuracy were found for the two video channels; no relationship was found for the audio channel.This research was conducted while both authors held National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowships at Harvard University. They wish to thank Robert Rosenthal for advice, Peter L. Rogers for technical assistance and Myron Wish for valuable criticisms of an earlier draft.     

A Review of the High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository Siting Analysis

We critique two 1986 Department of Energy reports concerning the selection of sites for characterization as the nation's first high-level nuclear waste repository. We find that the multiattribute utility analysis of the five nominated sites was well done, although we express concern about the assessed probabilities, question the construction of two important attribute scales, and disagree with some of the value tradeoffs that were used. In contrast, we find the logic of the recommendations report to be weak and unconvincing.     

A mixture model for random graphs

The Erdös–Rényi model of a network is simple and possesses many explicit expressions for average and asymptotic properties, but it does not fit well to real-world networks. The vertices of those networks are often structured in unknown classes (functionally related proteins or social communities) with different connectivity properties. The stochastic block structures model was proposed for this purpose in the context of social sciences, using a Bayesian approach. We consider the same model in a frequentest statistical framework. We give the degree distribution and the clustering coefficient associated with this model, a variational method to estimate its parameters and a model selection criterion to select the number of classes. This estimation procedure allows us to deal with large networks containing thousands of vertices. The method is used to uncover the modular structure of a network of enzymatic reactions.