A GAME THEORETIC ANALYSIS OF VOLUNTARY EUTHANASIA AND PHYSICIAN ASSISTED SUICIDE

In countries/states where voluntary euthanasia (VE) or physician-assisted suicide (PAS) is legal, the patient's decision about whether to request VE or PAS heavily relies on the information others provide. We use the tools of microeconomic theory to study how communication between the patient, his family and his physician influences the patient's decision. We argue that families have considerable power over the patient and that the amount of information that is transmitted from physician to patient might be severely diminished as a result of legalizing VE or PAS. We discuss our main results in the context of the ongoing normative debate over the legalization of VE and PAS. (JEL D8, I12)     

A note on defining organisational systems for contingency theory in OM

Abstract

This paper aims to improve the applicability and relevance of contingency theory research in the field of Operations Management. Based on the results of previous studies, we have identified a systems-based single definition of organisation types that could describe the fit between organisational environment and organisational structure. This definition of organisation type, which we call an ‘organisational system’, regards the organisation as an integrated whole instead of as a sum of its parts and can help to better classify organisations in order to identify fits between organisation types and emerging practices in Operations Management.     

Structured Coupling of Probability Loss Distributions: Assessing Joint Flood Risk in Multiple River Basins

Losses due to natural hazard events can be extraordinarily high and difficult to cope with. Therefore, there is considerable interest to estimate the potential impact of current and future extreme events at all scales in as much detail as possible. As hazards typically spread over wider areas, risk assessment must take into account interrelations between regions. Neglecting such interdependencies can lead to a severe underestimation of potential losses, especially for extreme events. This underestimation of extreme risk can lead to the failure of riskmanagement strategies when they are most needed, namely, in times of unprecedented events. In this article, we suggest a methodology to incorporate such interdependencies in risk via the use of copulas. We demonstrate that by coupling losses, dependencies can be incorporated in risk analysis, avoiding the underestimation of risk. Based on maximum discharge data of river basins and stream networks, we present and discuss different ways to couple loss distributions of basins while explicitly incorporating tail dependencies. We distinguish between coupling methods that require river structure data for the analysis and those that do not. For the later approach we propose a minimax algorithm to choose coupled basin pairs so that the underestimation of risk is avoided and the use of river structure data is not needed. The proposed methodology is especially useful for large‐scale analysis and we motivate and apply our method using the case of Romania. The approach can be easily extended to other countries and natural hazards.     

The Effects of Being Out of the Labor Market on Subsequent Wages: Evidence for Uruguay

Based on administrative data combining workers’ earnings histories and unemployment insurance benefits, we document short and long term wage losses for a large sample of Uruguayan formal workers with high tenure. The contribution of this paper is to provide original evidence about job separation costs in a developing country, based on a unique array of social security and unemployment insurance administrative micro-data. Our main findings indicate that workers lose around 38 % of their previous wages in the first quarter after separation, and 1 year after, losses are still more than 14 %. If we consider earnings plus unemployment insurance benefits, losses at the quarter of separation are considerable lower, amounting 22 % of previous wages. We also provide original evidence about how wage losses vary across age groups, gender, industry and size of the firm. Differences between switchers and non switchers, as well as the effects of the economic cycle are also analyzed.     

On social security financial crisis

We indicate that financial crisis in social security programs might be endogenous because social security affects fertility and human capital's decisions and thus, the aggregate growth rate of the economy. These effects lead to an endogenous erosion of the financial basis of the PAYG social security program so that, as a consequence, the PAYG system is not sustainable and it requires continuous increases in the social security tax rate. I received helpful comments in an earlier version of this paper from G.S. Becker, Larry Sjaastad, two anonymous referees and participants at seminars at Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile and The University of Chicago. Remaining errors are my own responsibility. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

GLUTTONY AND SLOTH? CALORIES,LABOR MARKET ACTIVITY AND THE RISE OF OBESITY

The rise in obesity has largely been attributed to an increase in calorie consumption. We show that official government household survey data indicate that levels of calorie consumption have declined in England between 1980 and 2013; while there has been an increase in calories from food eaten out at restaurants, fast food, soft drinks and confectionery, overall there has been a decrease in total calories purchased. Households have shifted towards more expensive calories, both by substituting away from home production towards market production, and substituting towards higher quality foods. We show that the decline in calories can be partially, but not entirely, rationalized with weight gain by a decline in the strenuousness of work and daily life. (JEL: D12, I12, I18)     

Vector quantization of amino acids: Analysis of the HIV V3 loop region

This paper is about techniques for clustering sequences such as nucleic or amino acids. Our application is to defining viral subtypes of HIV on the basis of similarities of V3 loop region amino acids of the envelope (env) gene. The techniques introduced here could apply with virtually no change to other HIV genes as well as to other problems and data not necessarily of viral origin. These algorithms as they apply to quantitative data have found much application in engineering contexts to compressing images and speech. They are called vector quantization and involve a mapping from a large number of possible inputs into a much smaller number of outputs. Many implementations, in particular those that go by the name generalized Lloyd or k-means, exist for choosing sets of possible outputs and mappings. With each there is an attempt to maximize similarities among inputs that map to any single output, or, alternatively, to minimize some measure of distortion between input and output. Here, two standard types of vector quantization are brought to bear upon the cited problem of clustering V3 loop amino acid sequences. Results of this clustering are compared to those of the well known UPGMA algorithms, the unweighted pair group method in which arithmetic averages are employed.     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters

ABSTRACT

We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of various economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time measure of uncertainty surrounding subjective forecasts in a simple framework. We jointly model and estimate macroeconomic (common) and indicator-specific uncertainties of four indicators, using a factor stochastic volatility model. Our macroeconomic uncertainty estimates have three major spikes has three major spikes aligned with the 1973–1975, 1980, and 2007–2009 recessions, while other recessions were characterized by increases in indicator-specific uncertainties. We also show that the selection of data vintages affects the estimates and relative size of jumps in estimated uncertainty series. Finally, our macroeconomic uncertainty has a persistent negative impact on real economic activity, rather than producing “wait-and-see” dynamics.     

Copper mining productivity: Lessons from Chile

Chile represents almost one third of the world’s copper production. Mining is one of the main industries that contributes to our country’s development with resources and is globally recognized. Due to the end of the commodity cycle, improving productivity will be a key variable in mining performance in incoming years. This paper studies mining productivity in Chile by relying on two indicators: measure of the total factor productivity (TFP) using the traditional Solow methodology, and labor productivity. Since 2000, we found a decrease in TFP, explained mainly by the participation of capital as well as diverse factor adjustments to labor and capital inputs. Average labor productivity also decreases 42% from 1999 to 2010, a decrease explained by four determinants: real mining wages, electricity prices, copper prices and mineral grade. Since 2010, average labor productivity has increased 30%, and there is also an opportunity for additional improvement by reducing energy costs as well as by aligning productivity and labor performances.