LENGTH-BIASING, CHARACTERIZATIONS OF LAWS AND THE MOMENT PROBLEM

A positive random variable X with a finite mean has an induced length-biased law represented by Y, and Y is stochastically larger than X. An independent uniform random contraction of Y, UY, has the same law as X if and only if the latter is exponential. This property is extended to non-uniform contractions and a more general notion of length-biasing. The distributional equality of X and W leads to a functional equation for the moment function of X, which has either Infinitely many solutions or none. When U is constant, X can have a log-normal law, but it can also have laws with the same moment sequence as this log-nod law. The case where U has a certain beta, or generalized beta, law give t3 characterizations of generalized gamma laws, or to products of independent copies of them. This occurs even when these laws are not determined by their moment sequences.     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.     

The Politics of Integration—new Sites for Old Practices?

Public education authorities throughout the Australian States and Territories have moved towards the development of policies and programmes to integrate students considered disabled into regular classrooms. The implementation of policy frequently is reduced to disputation over resources which, it is argued, will facilitate integration. This paper contends that such debates sustain the flawed notion that integration is simply a technical issue to be achieved through deployment of special equipment and personnel to regular schools, recommending a further consideration of the contribution of pedagogy, curriculum and school organisation to disabling or enabling educational programmes.     

The Farm Crisis and Mental Health: A Longitudinal Study of the 1980s1

Abstract This paper examines rural/urban differences and trends in mental health during the farm crisis of the 1980s in a large panel sample from a midwestern state. A community research perspective, which attributes differences to life styles, culture, and community context, is contrasted with an economic stress perspective, which focuses on individual differences in economic circumstances as determinants of rural-urban differences in mental health. Survey samples from 1981, 1986, and 1989 are used to examine differences among seven categories of community type. Multiple regression analysis of the trend and panel data provide support for both the individual economic distress and community context models.     

A note on inverse estimation in non-linear models

The problem of estimating the value of an x variable for a given proportion of an observed value of the y variable is consdered for a non-linear model. Asymptotic confidence limits are obtained and an application of the method is illustrated witreal data.     

Children's gender- and age-based categorization in similarity and induction tasks

The present studies examined children's and adults' preferences for gender- or age-based categorization using similarity and inductive inference tasks. Four-year-olds, 6-year-olds, and adults looked at pictures of people and decided which of two was more like a target (similarity condition) or which shared a novel age- or gender-related property with the target (inference condition). Age or gender-based matches were possible. The results are consistent with previous findings that gender-based classification decreases with age. However, they also demonstrate that children use gender more for judging similarity than for making inferences about novel properties. Distinct patterns emerge from the two tasks: 6-year-olds and adults in both conditions categorize more by age than gender; 4-year-olds categorize by gender more than age in the similarity task, but by age more in the induction task. Only adults differentiated by property in the inference condition. These findings suggest that the salience of gender categories cannot entirely be attributed to their inductive potential. Gender has a salience beyond what would be predicted by its power for directing novel generalizations.     

Statistics for weighing benefits and harms in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized cancer prevention trial

Summary.  When evaluating potential interventions for cancer prevention, it is necessary to compare benefits and harms. With new study designs, new statistical approaches may be needed to facilitate this comparison. A case in point arose in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized trial of tamoxifen versus placebo in asymptomatic women who were at high risk for breast cancer. Although the randomized trial showed that tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk of breast cancer, the harms from tamoxifen were serious and some were life threaten-ing. In hopes of finding a subset of women with inherited risk genes who derive greater bene-fits from tamoxifen, we proposed a nested case–control study to test some trial subjects for various genes and new statistical methods to extrapolate benefits and harms to the general population. An important design question is whether or not the study should target common low penetrance genes. Our calculations show that useful results are only likely with rare high penetrance genes.     

Implications of temporal aggregation on the relation between two time series

Using a simple theoretical model and giving an empirical example it is investigated if it matters whether we use (monthly) averages or end-of-period (month) data in performing Granger-causality tests. It is shown that no major problems are to be expected if the two series are temporally aggregated in the same way, but non-trivial problems can occur if the two series have different kinds of temporal aggregation.     

Rural Income-Generating Programs and Fertility Limitation: Evidence from a Microdemographic Study in Nepal1

Abstract Participation in rural development programs that organize members into local cooperative groups can alter the decision-making environment facing couples to reflect some of the negative consequences of childbearing. This study uses data from Nepal, collected through a combination of ethnographic and survey methods, to test the effects of participation in such a development program on fertility behavior. Results demonstrate that program participants are much more likely to use contraceptives to limit their fertility than are non-participants. The study provides empirical support for theories linking this type of institutional change to fertility and indicates a policy option that can allow some negative consequences of childbearing to affect couples' fertility decisions.