Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

Waste paper and the market mechanism

Increasing attention is being given to the possible consequences which might follow from the exhaustion of the world's natural resources. Countering the pessimistic conclusions of such institutions as the Club of Rome, economists such as Wilfred Beckerman have emphasized the importance of substitution, pointing to many examples where a shortage of one raw material has led to the discovery or development of alternative materials, e.g. artificial for natural rubber, aluminium for copper.Substitution usually occurs through normal market mechanisms, i.e. changes in relative prices. However in some circumstances the market mechanism may be inhibited by a variety of factors, so that its operation requires to be supplemented by an outside agency. This article explores this possibility in relation to the paper making industry, which provides a particularly interesting example owing to the existence of a well established market in waste paper, the main substitute for the major natural resource, woodpulp.A brief indication is given of the relative importance of waste paper and an outline of the structure of the U.K. market; the conditions under which greater utilization of waste paper might occur are then considered taking a sideways look at the influence of the individual. In the final section the various implications for the role of the state are summarized.     

何时推进，何时退后

如何从不太重要的信息中找出重要的信息呢?在同老板的交往中通过了解他想从你那里了解什么,从而提前进行区分要达到企业所希望的结果,你需要依赖员工分享重要信息．提出他们在同客户、合作伙伴甚至是竞争对手的交往中形成的创意。但鼓励员工分享他们的深刻见解的同时．你也希望他们有自己的判断力。你不需要了解资料的所有细节。     

Comparison as a Universal Learning Action

This article explores ‘comparison’ as a universal metasubject learning action, a key curricular element envisaged by the Russian Federal State Educational Standards. Representing the modern learner’s fundamental pragmatic skill embedding such core capacities as information processing, critical thinking, robust decision-making, and effective problem solving, the universal learning action of ‘comparison’ has become a new professional challenge for educators, in terms of both understanding the underlying theoretical framework and ensuring that appropriate instructional models are deployed. The author seeks to clarify either of these aspects by providing a plain discussion of how the basic mechanisms of comparison as a cognitive device can be incorporated into clear and simple classroom aids and algorithms supporting goal-directed learning.     

Transient detailed balance and product form for reaction networks

This paper explores the boundary of the set of reaction networks that have an exact transient (truncated) multidimensional Poisson or product-form distribution for the number of particles of different types. Motivated by the birth–death process, we introduce the notions of transient detailed balance and delay functions, and use these notions to obtain the novel transient product-form distribution in a coagulation-fragmentation process for polymers with a tree-like structure from that of the pure coagulation process.     

Ambulance allocation for maximal survival with heterogeneous outcome measures

This paper proposes new models for locating emergency medical services (EMS) by incorporating survival functions for capturing multiple-classes of heterogeneous patients. The Maximal Expected Survival Location Model for Heterogeneous Patients (MESLMHP) aims to maximize the overall expected survival probability of multiple-classes of patients, whereby different classes could be defined according to agreed patient categories based on response time targets, or by capturing differing medical conditions each with a corresponding survival function. Furthermore, we propose and demonstrate an approximation approach to solving the extended stochastic version of MESLMHP, which utilizes queuing theory to permit the modeling of congestion and utilization at each ambulance station, and does not require assumptions to be made on the utilization of ambulances. Both models are demonstrated using data from the ambulance service in Wales. We show that our multiple outcome measures and survival-maximizing approach, rather than one based on average response time targets alone or a single patient class provides more effective EMS ambulance allocations.     

Goffman,Growing Up,and Experienced Relationality

This article adopts a Goffmanian framework to grapple with the emotional‐relational experiences associated with teenagers growing up. Drawing upon focus group interviews with 14–15 year olds in East and West Belfast, the lack of full personhood attributed to nonadults is discussed in relation to spatial exclusion and stigmatizing service transactions, along with some emotional consequences. However, instances where teenagers embrace as well as reject this ostensibly negative social positioning are also elaborated. The overall thrust of the article seeks to demonstrate how the hierarchical adult‐child complex is built and maintained through everyday face‐to‐face interaction and the ritualistic expression of standards of worth assigned to participants.     

Trend smoothness achieved by penalized least squares with the smoothing parameter chosen by optimality criteria

This work presents a study about the smoothness attained by the methods more frequently used to choose the smoothing parameter in the context of splines: Cross Validation, Generalized Cross Validation, and corrected Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria, implemented with Penalized Least Squares. It is concluded that the amount of smoothness strongly depends on the length of the series and on the type of underlying trend, while the presence of seasonality even though statistically significant is less relevant. The intrinsic variability of the series is not statistically significant and its effect is taken into account only through the smoothing parameter.