Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts

Evaluating the predictive ability of mortality forecasts is important yet difficult. Death rates and mean lifespan are basic life table functions typically used to analyze to what extent the forecasts deviate from their realized values. Although these parameters are useful for specifying precisely how mortality has been forecasted, they cannot be used to assess whether the underlying mortality developments are plausible. We therefore propose that in addition to looking at average lifespan, we should examine whether the forecasted variability of the age at death is a plausible continuation of past trends. The validation of mortality forecasts for Italy, Japan, and Denmark demonstrates that their predictive performance can be evaluated more comprehensively by analyzing both the average lifespan and lifespan disparity—that is, by jointly analyzing the mean and the dispersion of mortality. Approaches that account for dynamic age shifts in survival improvements appear to perform better than others that enforce relatively invariant patterns. However, because forecasting approaches are designed to capture trends in average mortality, we argue that studying lifespan disparity may also help to improve the methodology and thus the predictive ability of mortality forecasts.     

The heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps

This paper investigates the heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps using a new single-index based approach. Instead of stratifying our sample by age or education, we study ethnic employment gaps along a continuous measure of employability, the employment probability minority workers would have if their characteristics were priced as in the majority group. We apply this method to French males, comparing those whose parents are North African immigrants and those with native parents. We find that both the raw and the unexplained ethnic employment differentials are larger for low-employability workers than for high-employability ones. We show in a theoretical framework that this heterogeneity can be accounted for by homogeneous underlying mechanisms and is not evidence for, say, heterogeneous discrimination. Finally, we discuss our main empirical findings in the light of simple taste-based vs. statistical discrimination models.     

Sense‐making in a social work office: an ethnographic study of safeguarding judgements

Social workers are routinely required to make finely balanced judgements on matters defined by subjectivity and uncertainty. Often, these judgements have to be made on the basis of information which is incomplete, inconclusive and contested. The way in which social workers make sense of such information is a crucial component of effective assessment and intervention. This ethnographic study of judgements in a social work office describes some of the practices which practitioners employed in making sense of information about children and young people's needs. The findings suggest that initial statements in dialogue may potentially act as signposts for preceding intuitive sense‐making. Observations offer insights into the way in which individuals construct professional responsibility. The study also suggests that sense‐making is not necessarily an individual activity but can be an activity which is shared between people and across teams. The findings indicate the importance of emotional intelligence and intersubjectivity in social work judgements.     

Fallstudie: Optimierung des Arbeitsprozesses einer Arbeitsgruppe (Interventionswissenschaft in Aktion)Case study: work process optimisation of a working group (intervention science in action)

The paper describes an intervention research process within an organization. Goal of the research was to optimize the work process of a workgroup. A case study shows applied methods of intervention research in detail. Consideration of a combination of hierarchical organization and e.?g. project teams or workgroups provides the context of the paper. Inherent contradictions regarding hierarchical organization and workgroups and the involved challenges for employees are addressed.     

Bilinear modulation models for seasonal tables of counts

We propose generalized linear models for time or age-time tables of seasonal counts, with the goal of better understanding seasonal patterns in the data. The linear predictor contains a smooth component for the trend and the product of a smooth component (the modulation) and a periodic time series of arbitrary shape (the carrier wave). To model rates, a population offset is added. Two-dimensional trends and modulation are estimated using a tensor product B-spline basis of moderate dimension. Further smoothness is ensured using difference penalties on the rows and columns of the tensor product coefficients. The optimal penalty tuning parameters are chosen based on minimization of a quasi-information criterion. Computationally efficient estimation is achieved using array regression techniques, avoiding excessively large matrices. The model is applied to female death rate in the US due to cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases.     

Statistical modelling of individual animal movement: an overview of key methods and a discussion of practical challenges

With the influx of complex and detailed tracking data gathered from electronic tracking devices, the analysis of animal movement data has recently emerged as a cottage industry among biostatisticians. New approaches of ever greater complexity are continue to be added to the literature. In this paper, we review what we believe to be some of the most popular and most useful classes of statistical models used to analyse individual animal movement data. Specifically, we consider discrete-time hidden Markov models, more general state-space models and diffusion processes. We argue that these models should be core components in the toolbox for quantitative researchers working on stochastic modelling of individual animal movement. The paper concludes by offering some general observations on the direction of statistical analysis of animal movement. There is a trend in movement ecology towards what are arguably overly complex modelling approaches which are inaccessible to ecologists, unwieldy with large data sets or not based on mainstream statistical practice. Additionally, some analysis methods developed within the ecological community ignore fundamental properties of movement data, potentially leading to misleading conclusions about animal movement. Corresponding approaches, e.g. based on Lévy walk-type models, continue to be popular despite having been largely discredited. We contend that there is a need for an appropriate balance between the extremes of either being overly complex or being overly simplistic, whereby the discipline relies on models of intermediate complexity that are usable by general ecologists, but grounded in well-developed statistical practice and efficient to fit to large data sets.     

Organizational responsiveness of Russian and American growth-oriented small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

The paper discusses problem-based learning (PBL) as a mediating factor in generating a variety of learning networks in workplace contexts. It is argued that informal learning in experiential circumstances can be systematized to encourage deep learning at the individual and collective level. Given the distinct problem-solving opportunities in PBL, learners can increase their capacity to acquire new knowledge through self-inquiry, reflection and dialogue. The repositioning of learning attitudes also leads to an enlargement of communities of practice wherein double and triple-loop learning cycles intersect to create rigorous learning. An integrated model is proposed to explain the dynamics of PBL operating within the constraints of workplace contexts.     

Explaining costumer reactions to real stockouts

The occurrence of stockouts remains an unsolved problem for retailers that provoke severe revenue and image losses, as well as greater customer dissatisfaction for both retailers and manufacturers. A literature review suggests a model of influential antecedents of consumers’ reactions to product unavailability. A field study then provides insights into true stockout situations, unlike a hypothetical research setting. With these data, this study reveals that loyalty and the presence of product alternatives have the greatest impacts on customer reactions. This result has significant theoretical and managerial implications due to the fact that results based on hypothetical settings did not hold.