Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts

Evaluating the predictive ability of mortality forecasts is important yet difficult. Death rates and mean lifespan are basic life table functions typically used to analyze to what extent the forecasts deviate from their realized values. Although these parameters are useful for specifying precisely how mortality has been forecasted, they cannot be used to assess whether the underlying mortality developments are plausible. We therefore propose that in addition to looking at average lifespan, we should examine whether the forecasted variability of the age at death is a plausible continuation of past trends. The validation of mortality forecasts for Italy, Japan, and Denmark demonstrates that their predictive performance can be evaluated more comprehensively by analyzing both the average lifespan and lifespan disparity—that is, by jointly analyzing the mean and the dispersion of mortality. Approaches that account for dynamic age shifts in survival improvements appear to perform better than others that enforce relatively invariant patterns. However, because forecasting approaches are designed to capture trends in average mortality, we argue that studying lifespan disparity may also help to improve the methodology and thus the predictive ability of mortality forecasts.     

The heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps

This paper investigates the heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps using a new single-index based approach. Instead of stratifying our sample by age or education, we study ethnic employment gaps along a continuous measure of employability, the employment probability minority workers would have if their characteristics were priced as in the majority group. We apply this method to French males, comparing those whose parents are North African immigrants and those with native parents. We find that both the raw and the unexplained ethnic employment differentials are larger for low-employability workers than for high-employability ones. We show in a theoretical framework that this heterogeneity can be accounted for by homogeneous underlying mechanisms and is not evidence for, say, heterogeneous discrimination. Finally, we discuss our main empirical findings in the light of simple taste-based vs. statistical discrimination models.     

Fallstudie: Optimierung des Arbeitsprozesses einer Arbeitsgruppe (Interventionswissenschaft in Aktion)Case study: work process optimisation of a working group (intervention science in action)

The paper describes an intervention research process within an organization. Goal of the research was to optimize the work process of a workgroup. A case study shows applied methods of intervention research in detail. Consideration of a combination of hierarchical organization and e.?g. project teams or workgroups provides the context of the paper. Inherent contradictions regarding hierarchical organization and workgroups and the involved challenges for employees are addressed.     

Return to work: A comparison of two cognitive behavioural interventions in cases of work-related psychological complaints among the self-employed

We investigated the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and a combined intervention of workplace- and individual-focused techniques among self-employed people on sick leave owing to work-related psychological complaints (such as anxiety, depression, and burnout). Both interventions were based on CBT; however, one was conducted by psychotherapists and involved extensive CBT, while the other was delivered by “labour experts” and consisted of a brief CBT-derived intervention combined with both individual-focused and workplace interventions. One hundred and twenty-two self-employed people who had applied for sickness benefit from an insurance company enrolled in a randomized controlled design. These individuals were assessed before the intervention and then at 4 months and 10 months after the onset of the intervention. The outcome was assessed based on duration of sick leave until partial and full return to work and on psychological complaints. Significant effects on partial and full return were found in favour of the combined intervention: partial return occurred 17 and 30 days earlier in this group than in the CBT group and the control group, respectively. For full return to work, the difference was approximately 200 days. A decrease in psychological complaints was present in each condition but we found no significant interaction effects. The results suggest that work resumption should be addressed earlier in individuals receiving CBT. This insight is of value for the (scarce) literature concerning interventions for individuals who are on sick leave owing to work-related psychological complaints.     

Quality of life in rural areas: processes of divergence and convergence

In Germany, processes can be observed that have long been out of keeping with the principle of equality of opportunity. Unemployment is concentrated in the structurally weak peripheral areas, in Eastern Germany in particular; emigration of young and better-educated people to the West is not diminishing, but contrary to expectation is again on the increase; aging processes have set in already, and when it comes to the provision of infrastructure, e.g. in the field of professional training, some regions are already suffering from considerable problems. These difficulties are frequently interpreted as differences between East and West and are explained away as problems resulting from reunification, such as the deindustrialization and restructuring of the economy and the enormous decline in the birth rate in Eastern Germany. Although these problems cannot just be attributed to social transformation and the birth rate crisis alone, being subject to more general processes of intensified globalization and the aging of society, the increasing regional disparities are rarely considered in the overall context of regional development patterns throughout Germany. Moreover, the difficulty of even obtaining data for purposes of comparison generally means that an international yardstick is lacking when regional developments are analyzed. The present study investigates regional disparities over a period of time in the light of subjective and objective indicators of the quality of life for individuals. To this end, we make use of data from the Wohlfahrtssurvey [Welfare Survey] from 1978 to 2001, among other sources. On the basis of the Euromodule that has been established at the WZB, we compare current regional patterns in Germany with those in other European countries. This approach makes it possible to provide information on the scale of regional disparities in various different countries, and to identify privileged and handicapped regions with reference to standards of living and the sense of wellbeing. The study’s findings show that, in the past 25 years, welfare in Western Germany has evened out at a higher level, but currently a trend towards increasing economic disparity is discernible. In comparison with other European countries, on the other hand, the differences (regional differences) within Germany are comparatively slight.     

On Jürgen Habermas and public relations

Habermas focuses on the human communication process with understanding in mind. Here it is argued that this perspective is also worth to be considered for the field of public relations research. The article points out how to apply Habermas’ concept of understanding for the purposes of evaluation as well as for the purposes of planning public relations communication.     

Risk Perception of Heavy Metal Soil Contamination by High-Exposed and Low-Exposed Inhabitants: The Role of Knowledge and Emotional Concerns

Soil contaminated with heavy metals is a salient example of environmental risk. Consumption of vegetables cultivated in contaminated soil or direct ingestion of soil by small children can damage health. In contrast to other kinds of pollution or risks such as air pollution or exposure to ozone, the individual risk concerning soil contamination is highly dependent on the way one is exposed to the local source of risk. Thus, we wanted to know if risk perception varies according to the level of exposure. A quasi-experimental, questionnaire-based study was conducted in a community in northwest Switzerland, where the soil is widely contaminated. The level of contamination varies with the distance from the source of the contamination, a metal processing plant. We investigated the perception of risk of heavy-metal-contaminated soil by inhabitants with high-exposure levels (N= 27) and those with low-exposure levels (N= 30). Both groups judged the risk for oneself similarly whereas the low-exposure group, when compared to the high-exposure group, judged perceived risk for other affected people living in their community to be higher. Besides this exposure effect, risk perception was mainly determined by emotional concerns. Participants with higher scores in self-estimated knowledge tended to provide low-risk judgments, were less interested in further information, showed low emotional concern, and thus displayed high risk acceptance. In contrast, actual knowledge showed no correlation with any of theses variables. Judgments on the need for decontamination are determined by risk perception, less application of dissonance-reducing heuristics and commitment to sustainability. The desire for additional information is not affected by missing knowledge but is affected by emotional concerns.