Prediction intervals for time series models with trend via sieve bootstrap

This paper discusses method for constructing the prediction intervals for time series model with trend using the sieve bootstrap procedure. Gasser–Müller type of kernel estimator is used for trend estimation and prediction. The boundary modification of the kernel is applied to control the edge effect and to construct the predictor of a trend.     

Gendered and classed experiences of work–family conflict among lone mothers in Sweden

ABSTRACT

Research on the relationship between lone motherhood and social class is indeed limited. Drawing on 39 in-depth interviews, the overall aim of this article is to increase knowledge of the ways that working conditions and access to economic resources impact on Swedish lone mothers’ opportunities to integrate paid work and family. One assumption is that lone mothers are guided by culturally shaped ideas about the proper way to be a mother, and that variance between mothers’ notions of good mothering and the means for their realization, i.e. sociological ambivalence, may give rise to conflicts and dilemmas. Results show that low incomes, non-standard hours and temporary employment reduced working-class mothers’ prospects of practising the kind of mothering they considered proper, creating dilemmas and high levels of conflict. Mothers could not always effectively use the rights granted to parents by the Swedish welfare state. The variances between notions about good mothering and the means for realizing them were not as big for middle-class mothers, thanks to greater access to economic capital and flexible working hours. Different opportunity structures hence significantly influenced lone mothers’ opportunity to combine paid work and caring commitments in ways they found appropriate.     

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.     

The technical efficiency of the Japanese banks: Non-radial directional performance measurement with undesirable output

The paper analyses technical efficiency of the Japanese banks from 2000 to 2007. The estimation technique is based on the Russell directional distance function that takes into consideration not only desirable outputs but also an undesirable output that is represented by non-performing loans (NPLs). The results indicate that NPLs remain a significant burden as for banks' performance. We show that banks' inputs have to be utilised more efficiently, particularly labour and premises. We also argue that a further restructuring process is needed in the segment of Regional Banks. We conclude that the Japanese banking system is still far away from being fully consolidated and restructured.     

SAME-GENDER SEX IN THE UNITED STATES IMPACT OF T-ACASI ON PREVALENCE ESTIMATES

Well-conducted telephone surveys provide an economical meansof estimating the prevalence of sexual and reproductive behaviorsin a population. There is, however, a nontrivial potential forbias since respondents must report sensitive information toa human interviewer. The National STD and Behavior MeasurementExperiment (NSBME) evaluates a new survey technology—telephoneaudio computer-assisted self-interviewing (T-ACASI)—thateliminates this requirement. The NSBME embedded a randomizedexperiment in a survey of probability samples of 1,543 U.S.and 744 Baltimore adults ages 18 to 45. Compared with NSBMErespondents interviewed by human interviewers, respondents interviewedby T-ACASI were 1.5 to 1.6 times more likely to report same-gendersexual attraction, experience, and genital contact. The impactof T-ACASI was more pronounced (odds ratio = 2.5) for residentsof locales that have historically been less tolerant of same-gendersexual behaviors and for respondents in households with children(odds ratio = 3.0).     

Classical and Bayesian Analysis of Univariate and Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

In this paper, efficient importance sampling (EIS) is used to perform a classical and Bayesian analysis of univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models for financial return series. EIS provides a highly generic and very accurate procedure for the Monte Carlo (MC) evaluation of high-dimensional interdependent integrals. It can be used to carry out ML-estimation of SV models as well as simulation smoothing where the latent volatilities are sampled at once. Based on this EIS simulation smoother, a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior analysis of the parameters of SV models can be performed.     

Computer systems in addiction treatment programs: Availability and implications for program evaluation

Addiction treatment programs have been slow to adopt computerized information systems. Little systematic data exist on programs' technological infrastructures and use of electronic databases to store and analyze client information. Likewise, there is little information available on counselors' access to and use of the Internet for learning about new treatment techniques. Drawing upon data obtained in 2002–2003 from nationally-representative samples of publicly- and privately-funded addiction treatment centers and their counselors, this article describes the current state of the field in terms of data system availability and Internet usage. The availability of client-level databases is variable but continues to evolve. Programs maintaining electronic client data appear to be at an advantage for implementing outcomes monitoring activities. While counselors' access to computers is high, their use of the Internet and the NIDA website is low. The implications of these findings, and directions for future research, are discussed.     

Counselor Turnover in Substance Abuse Treatment Centers: An Organizational-Level Analysis

This article draws on institutional and ecological perspectives on work and organizations to develop a workplace level model of variation in voluntary counselor turnover rates across privately funded substance abuse treatment centers in the United States. Results show that participatory management structures reduce turnover rates principally by promoting organizational commitment. The analysis also tests hypotheses regarding the effects on turnover rates of other relevant theoretic domains of treatment center structure and organization. We discuss theoretical implications of the findings and suggest directions for future research.     

Perceived Risk and Benefit of Nuclear Waste Repositories: Four Opinion Clusters

Local public resistance can block the site‐selection process, construction, and operation of nuclear waste repositories. Social science has established that the perception of risks and benefits, trust in authorities, and opinion on nuclear energy play important roles in acceptance. In particular, risk and benefit evaluations seem critical for opinion formation. However, risks and benefits have rarely been studied independently and, most often, the focus has been on the two most salient groups of proponents and opponents. The aim of this exploratory study is to examine the often‐neglected majority of people holding ambivalent or indifferent opinions. We used cluster analysis to examine the sample (N = 500, mailed survey in German‐speaking Switzerland) in terms of patterns of risk and benefit perception. We reveal four significantly different and plausible clusters: one cluster with high‐benefit ratings in favor of a repository and one cluster with high‐risk ratings opposing it; a third cluster shows ambivalence, with high ratings on both risk and benefit scales and moderate opposition, whereas a fourth cluster seems indifferent, rating risks and benefits only moderately compared to the ambivalent cluster. We conclude that a closer look at the often neglected but considerable number of people with ambivalent or indifferent opinions is necessary. Although the extreme factions of the public will most probably not change their opinion, we do not yet know how the opinion of the ambivalent and indifferent clusters might develop over time.