Statistical approaches for the reliability of structural designs

The Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA) has produced some guidelines for the assessment of the reliability of components and/or structures. The methods of analysis suggested by these guidelines are far from adequate and, in certain cases, contain some imperfections. In this paper, some of the weaknesses of the guidelines are identified. The shortcomings are mainly in the ease of calculations and the feasibility of the assumptions which are imposed. Three alternative methods aimed at tackling some of the weaknesses are introduced. A simulation study is used to compare these methods.     

Family strengths in long-term marriages

Considerable interest exists in identifying the characteristics of families that exhibit a high level of functioning. Since family strengths may be related to family stability, it is logical to examine long-term marriages for characteristics of strong and durable relationships. The present sample consists of 116 couples divided into two groups, higher family strengths and lower family sterngths, based on an empirical measure. Differences in the qualities of these families were identified. In most respects strengths found to be important in earlier studies of younger families also discriminated within long-term marriages. However, some variables may be more important in long-term marriages, including health, sexual relations, financial matters, and personality issues.     

Testing the lucas critique: A review

Claims that the parameters of an econometric model are invariant under changes in either policy rules or expectations processes entail super exogeneity and encompassing implications. Super exogeneity is always potentially refutable, and when both implications are involved, the Lucas critique is also refutable. We review the methodological background; the applicability of the Lucas critique; super exogeneity tests; the encompassing implications of feedback and feedforward models; and the role of incomplete information. The approach is applied to money demand in the u.S.A. to examine constancy, exogeneity, and encompassing, and reveals the Lucas critique to be inapplicable to the model under analysis.     

A Bayesian growth and yield model for slash pine plantations

We formulate a traditional growth and yield model as a Bayes model. We attempt to introduce as few new assumptions as possible. Zellner's Bayesian method of moments procedure is used, because the published model did not include any distributional assumptions. We generate predictive posterior samples for a number of stand variables using the Gibbs sampler. The means of the samples compare favorably with the predictions from the published model. In addition, our model delivers distributions of outcomes, from which it is easy to establish measures of uncertainty, such as highest posterior density regions.     

Lawyers and the Welfare State

For the most part, the Australian legal profession has failed to meet the challenge of extending the benefits of the law and legal processes to the poor. Lawyers have been assiduous in acting on behalf of wealthier beneficiaries of the welfare state, but they have not applied their skills to improve the position of those who lack substantial resources. An assessment of the role that the profession is equipped to fulfil on behalf of the poor reveals that there is much that could be done to penetrate the welfare process, if lawyers were prepared to direct their energies to that area.     

Midwives in the United States: past and present

The main focus of the present paper is to place the current occupation of certified nurse-midwife (CNM) within the historical context of the decline of lay midwifery and the rise of the medical profession. The development and growth of nurse-midwifery is documented, as well as current problems facing the profession. The most salient contemporary issue is cancellation of malpractice insurance for 1400 CNMs in 1985. The consequences of this, and suggested policy changes, are explored.An earlier draft of this paper was presented at the 1985 meeting of the Association for Humanist Sociology held in Atlanta, Georgia.