Zur Auswirkung von Endlichkeitskorrekturen bei der Analyse einfacher Zufallsstichproben

In statistical inference one usual assumption is, that data relates to a set of independent identically distributed random variables. From the viewpoint of sampling theory this assumption is only satisfied, if we draw a simple random sample with replacement or the population size is infinite. Then it is not necessary to consider a finite population correction when calculating the variance of a given estimator. To examine the effect of simple random sampling without replacement on the above assumption, the exact variances are calculated in the cases of mean value and variance estimation. This may give us information whether finite population correction is neglible or not.     

STATUS CHANGE AND PERSISTENCE IN CHICAGO SUBURBS: MULTIPLE PATTERNS OF CAUSATION*

An examination of 1970–1980 census data for suburban Chicago indicates that, within the context of persisting inequities, causal links between community characteristics and status change vary by initial status. Individual change in the relative rankings of initially affluent communities is a direct function of housing age and location; residential development and changes in population size have little or no effect on this process. In contrast, cyclical growth is the primary determinant of status change among places of lesser initial affluence. Within the larger context of centrifugal drift and age-related growth cycles, stronger growth and resulting status improvements occur in accessible, underdeveloped newer places that, due to recent suburbanization, have already attained somewhat higher rankings.     

The probabilistic analysis of testimony

The probabilistic analysis of testimony is surveyed. The coverage is not comprehensive; attention is focused on several problems of particular interest or complexity. The theory often contains implicit assumptions, and some attempt is made to clarify the role these play. The theory originally arose in an attempt to understand the logic of belief. It was not empirically grounded, however, and later died out in the 19th century when its conclusions became largely self-evident, and its non-empirical background suspect.     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.