Prior Density Selection as a Particular Case of Bayesian Model Selection: A Predictive Approach

A Bayesian model consists of two elements: a sampling model and a prior density. The problem of selecting a prior density is nothing but the problem of selecting a Bayesian model where the sampling model is fixed. A predictive approach is used through a decision problem where the loss function is the squared L ² distance between the sampling density and the posterior predictive density, because the aim of the method is to choose the prior that provides a posterior predictive density as good as possible. An algorithm is developed for solving the problem; this algorithm is based on Lavine's linearization technique.     

A Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Gumbel Distribution Based on Kullback–Leibler Information

A goodness-of-fit test for the Gumbel distribution is proposed. This test is based on the Kullback–Leibler discrimination information methodology proposed by Song (2002 Song , K. S. ( 2002 ). Goodness-of-fit tests based on Kullback–Leibler discrimination information . IEEE Trans. Inform. Theor. 48 : 1103 – 1117 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The critical values of the test were obtained by using Monte Carlo simulation for small sample sizes and different levels of significance. The proposed test is compared with the tests developed by Stephens (1977 Stephens , M. ( 1977 ). Goodness-of-fit tests for the extreme value distribution . Biometrika 65 : 730 – 737 . [Google Scholar]), Chandra et al. (1981 Chandra , M. , Singpurwalla , N. D. , Stephens , M. A. ( 1981 ). Kolmogorov statistics for tests of fit for the extreme value and Weibull distributions . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 74 : 729 – 735 . [Google Scholar]), and the test given by Kinnison (1989 Kinnison , R. (1989). Correlation coefficient goodness of fit test for the extreme value distribution. Amer. Statistician 43:98–100.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in terms of their power by considering various alternative distributions. Simulation results show that the Kullback–Leibler information test has higher power than some of the studied tests.     

Multivariate Three-Parameter Log-Elliptical Distributions

The three-parameter log-elliptical distribution class is developed for the general situation in which the hypothesis of independence for the elements in a sample is not assumed. The parameter estimators are theoretically showed to be invariant under all distributions in the class by considering only a change in the constant of the scale parameter estimator. An estimation procedure based on the three-parameter lognormal distribution is proposed for the parameter estimation problem in any three-parameter log-elliptical distribution. Two classical lognormal data sets are analyzed without assuming independence in the sample in order to illustrate the proposed estimation procedure.     

Asymptotic Location of Largest Values of a Stationary Random Field

The study of the relationship between extreme values of dependent random fields and their locations has important practical applications, for instance, when dealing with censored data.

In this article we study the asymptotic behavior of the joint locations of the largest order statistics generated by a stationary random field with extremal index as well as the joint limiting distribution of the location of a high level exceedance nearest of the origin and the location of the maximum.     

Predictors of behavioural problems in foster children: the key role of impulsivity

Although several variables have been reported to be associated with behavioural problems in foster children, few studies have sought to establish more precisely the extent to which these variables may explain problematic behaviour. The main aim of this study is to determine the extent to which certain variables may predict behavioural problems shown by foster children. Participants included 104 foster children and their respective foster families. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the following variables predict behavioural problems in foster children: impulsivity/attention deficit in the child, level of burden in the foster carers, rigid or authoritarian parental discipline, and criticism/rejection by the foster parents. The model explained 46% of the variance in behaviour problems, with the greatest predictive power (29%) corresponding to the variable ‘impulsivity/attention deficit’. The results show that impulsivity/attention deficit is the most powerful predictor of behavioural problems in foster children. This is consistent with the findings of various studies that have reported an association between a lack of inhibitory control and problematic behaviour.     

Bayesian Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression Based on Penalized Splines and Dirichlet Process Mixtures

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric instrumental variable approach under additive separability that allows us to correct for endogeneity bias in regression models where the covariate effects enter with unknown functional form. Bias correction relies on a simultaneous equations specification with flexible modeling of the joint error distribution implemented via a Dirichlet process mixture prior. Both the structural and instrumental variable equation are specified in terms of additive predictors comprising penalized splines for nonlinear effects of continuous covariates. Inference is fully Bayesian, employing efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The resulting posterior samples do not only provide us with point estimates, but allow us to construct simultaneous credible bands for the nonparametric effects, including data-driven smoothing parameter selection. In addition, improved robustness properties are achieved due to the flexible error distribution specification. Both these features are challenging in the classical framework, making the Bayesian one advantageous. In simulations, we investigate small sample properties and an investigation of the effect of class size on student performance in Israel provides an illustration of the proposed approach which is implemented in an R package bayesIV. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Univariate Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling with unimodal kernels

Within the context of mixture modeling, the normal distribution is typically used as the components distribution. However, if a cluster is skewed or heavy tailed, then the normal distribution will be inefficient and many may be needed to model a single cluster. In this paper, we present an attempt to solve this problem. We define a cluster, in the absence of further information, to be a group of data which can be modeled by a unimodal density function. Hence, our intention is to use a family of univariate distribution functions, to replace the normal, for which the only constraint is unimodality. With this aim, we devise a new family of nonparametric unimodal distributions, which has large support over the space of univariate unimodal distributions. The difficult aspect of the Bayesian model is to construct a suitable MCMC algorithm to sample from the correct posterior distribution. The key will be the introduction of strategic latent variables and the use of the Product Space view of Reversible Jump methodology.     

A Bayesian analysis for the multivariate point null testing problem

A Bayesian test for the point null testing problem in the multivariate case is developed. A procedure to get the mixed distribution using the prior density is suggested. For comparisons between the Bayesian and classical approaches, lower bounds on posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis, over some reasonable classes of prior distributions, are computed and compared with the p-value of the classical test. With our procedure, a better approximation is obtained because the p-value is in the range of the Bayesian measures of evidence.     

On the estimation of the spectral density for continuous spatial processes

In this work, we study the asymptotic properties of smoothed nonparametric kernel spectral density estimators for the spatial spectral density. We consider the case of continuous stationary spatial processes under a shrinking asymptotic framework. Expressions for the bias and the covariance structure are obtained and the implications for the edge effect bias of the choice of the kernel, bandwidth and spacing parameter in the design are also discussed, both for tapered and untapered estimates. Results are illustrated with a simulation study.     

Multivariate measurement error models based on Student-t distribution under censored responses

Measurement error models constitute a wide class of models that include linear and nonlinear regression models. They are very useful to model many real-life phenomena, particularly in the medical and biological areas. The great advantage of these models is that, in some sense, they can be represented as mixed effects models, allowing us to implement well-known techniques, like the EM-algorithm for the parameter estimation. In this paper, we consider a class of multivariate measurement error models where the observed response and/or covariate are not fully observed, i.e., the observations are subject to certain threshold values below or above which the measurements are not quantifiable. Consequently, these observations are considered censored. We assume a Student-t distribution for the unobserved true values of the mismeasured covariate and the error term of the model, providing a robust alternative for parameter estimation. Our approach relies on a likelihood-based inference using an EM-type algorithm. The proposed method is illustrated through some simulation studies and the analysis of an AIDS clinical trial dataset.