The Media and Genetically Modified Foods: Evidence in Support of Social Amplification of Risk

Empirical examinations of the "social amplification of risk" framework are rare, partly because of the difficulties in predicting when conditions likely to result in amplification effects will occur. This means that it is difficult to examine changes in risk perception that are contemporaneous with increases and/or decreases in social or media discussion of the risks associated with a particular risk event. However, the collection of attitude data before, during, and after the increased reporting of the risks of genetically modified food in the United Kingdom (spring 1999) has demonstrated that people's risk perceptions do increase and decrease in line with what might be expected upon examination of the amplification and attenuation mechanisms integral to the framework. Perceptions of benefit, however, appeared to be permanently depressed by negative reporting about genetically modified food. Trust in regulatory institutions with responsibility for protecting the public was not affected. It was concluded that the social amplification of risk framework is a useful framework for beginning to explain the potential impact on risk perceptions of a risk event, particularly if that risk event is presented to the public as a new hazard occurring in a crisis context.     

CORRUPTION: TOP DOWN OR BOTTOM UP?

This article studies the impact of corruption on an economy with a hierarchical government. In particular, we study whether centralizing corruption within the higher level of government increases or decreases the total amount of corruption. We show that when the after-tax relative profitability of the formal sector as compared to that of the informal sector is high enough, adding a layer of government increases the total amount of corruption. By contrast, for high-enough public wages and/or an efficient monitoring technology of the bureaucratic system, centralization of corruption at the top of the government hierarchy redistributes bribe income from the lower level to the upper level. In the process, total corruption is reduced and the formal sector of the economy expands.     

Does Family Structure Matter in the Relationships Between Youth Assets and Youth Alcohol,Drug and Tobacco Use?

This study investigated significant relationships between youth assets and youth alcohol, tobacco, and drug use that differ according to family structure (one- or two-parent households). Data were collected from a randomly sampled inner-city population (n=1,256 teenagers and 1,256 parents of the teenagers) using in-home, in-person interviews. Logistic regression analyses, stratifying by one- and two-parent household status, were conducted with nine youth assets as the independent variables and youth alcohol, tobacco, and drug use as the dependent variables. Results indicated that the associations between assets and risk behaviors varied depending upon whether the youth lived in one- or two-parent households. Continued research is warranted to further investigate associations among family structure, youth assets, and youth risk behaviors.     

A direct derivation of the REML likelihood function

The original derivation of the widely cited form of the REML likelihood function for mixed linear models is difficult and indirect. This paper derives it directly using familiar operations with matrices and determinants.     

International-domestic linkages in a developing-country context: the case of the Rohingyas in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

Since 1978, the Rohingya have been fleeing Myanmar and taking refuge in Bangladesh. The state of Bangladesh is not a signatory to the Geneva Convention and does not recognize refugee rights, but the initial experiences with the Rohingya refugee population led the government to create a temporary and ad hoc domestic policy advisory and refugee management system, which eventually became highly politicized. There was also some degree of slow “externalization” of policy advice through the involvement of international organizations from 2006–2007 onward, mainly through the participation of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and International Organization for Migration (IOM). Over 2017–2018, there was a massive influx of refugees from Myanmar to Bangladesh. The domestic advisory and refugee management system lacked the capacity to manage the crisis and had to quickly and greatly externalize policy advice and refugee management. The UNHCR and IOM came in with a host of international organizational networks and coordinated with each other and the state through a multi-sectoral approach to manage the crisis. This externalization led to the systematization and institutionalization of the state’s domestic advisory system. However the effect of externalization on politicization is equivocal; on the one hand it decreased politicization of the domestic policy advisory system, but on the other hand, it created new levels of politicization.     

Newcomb's problem: Recalculations for the one-boxer

Theory and Decision -     

A new algorithm to estimate monotone nonparametric link functions and a comparison with parametric approach

The generalized linear model (GLM) is a class of regression models where the means of the response variables and the linear predictors are joined through a link function. Standard GLM assumes the link function is fixed, and one can form more flexible GLM by either estimating the flexible link function from a parametric family of link functions or estimating it nonparametically. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that uses P-spline for nonparametrically estimating the link function which is guaranteed to be monotone. It is equivalent to fit the generalized single index model with monotonicity constraint. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare our nonparametric approach for estimating link function with various parametric approaches, including traditional logit, probit and robit link functions, and two recently developed link functions, the generalized extreme value link and the symmetric power logit link. The simulation study shows that the link function estimated nonparametrically by our proposed algorithm performs well under a wide range of different true link functions and outperforms parametric approaches when they are misspecified. A real data example is used to illustrate the results.     

“He invited me and didn't ask anything in return” Migration and Mobility as Vulnerabilities for Sexual Exploitation among Female Adolescents in Mexico

Although human trafficking is recognized as a major human rights violation, there is limited evidence regarding the vulnerabilities that contribute to female adolescents’ risk of being forced or coerced into the sex trade. Vulnerabilities such as gender‐based violence, economic and social inequalities have been shown to shape the risk of sexual exploitation among adolescents. In‐depth interviews (n=18) with current sex workers who reported being deceived or forced into the sex trade as adolescents (<17 years old) were analysed to explore their experiences of migration and mobility in Mexico. Driven by socio‐economic and vulnerabilities in home communities, adolescents often engaged in internal migration and mobility to other Mexican communities and states. Migration and mobility further predisposed them to social isolation, economic hardship and abuse, which were used as tools to trick them into the sex trade. Policies that support safer migration for adolescents in origin, transit, and destination communities are needed.