Household composition and optimal commodity taxes

This paper investigates conditions under which demographic variables will have no impact on commodity taxes. We allow nonlinear and nonseparable preferences, a general demographic demand procedure, and a demogrant scheme linked to the number of children. Formulae for demographic revision of tax estimates are presented in a form that can be easily applied, and the only marginal data requirement is the number of children in the household. The paper extends an earlier exercise (Ray 1988) in avoiding the need for equivalence scales, and in using a demogrant scheme that is consistent with current practice in several European countries. The study confirms the robustness of the earlier discussion to the demogrant scheme adopted.I acknowledge, with thanks, the comments of two anonymous referees, but retain responsibility for errors that may remain.     

ESTIMATING TEMPORAL FARM INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS USING SPATIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics (ABARE) has conducted the annual Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey, covering the broadacre sector, in a consistent format since 1978/79. In this period the incomes of farmers have fluctuated considerably. Interest has focused on temporal income variation because of its relationship to the inherent riskiness of farming. Part of these income fluctuations can be explained by changing commodity prices and by highly variable climatic conditions. This paper outlines a method of measuring the magnitude of this income variation and how it relates to other variables. Due to rotation within the sample of farms surveyed, data are limited for determining the income variability of any particular farm. This paper, using spatial locations of surveyed farms, shows how kernel smoothing techniques can be adapted to estimate the distribution of a farm's income. This analysis uses data collected from 1978/79 to 1991/92. Summary information from these distributions is cross-tabulated against several other variables. This shows that income variability is strongly related to the production mixture of farming businesses.     

A Discrete Time Parametric Model for the Analysis of Failure Time Data

This paper introduces a parametric discrete failure time model which allows a variety of smooth hazard function shapes, including shapes which are not readily available with continuous failure time models. The model is easy to fit, and statistical inference is simple. Further, it is readily extended to allow for differences between subjects while retaining the ease of fit and simplicity of statistical inference. The performance of the discrete time analysis is demonstrated by application to several data sets.     

FEDERAL TRANSFER PAYMENTS IN AMERICA: VETERANS' PENSIONS AND THE RISE OF SOCIAL SECURITY

This paper examines the determinants of the adoption of the veterans' pension program and how it served as a prototype for the creation and administration of the federal welfare system in the United States. We provide statistical evidence in the form of an analysis of votes in the House of Representatives that state-based special interests which had supported the ongoing liberalization of the veterans' pension program provided significant support for the adoption of the Social Security Act of 1935. There is clear evidence the social security system was not adopted as a simple extension of state old-age pension programs.