A design for a census information retrieval system

This article explores the methodology of designing a storage and retrieval system for information on the nature and subjects of censuses published internationally over the past two decades. The essential key is neither data storage nor bibliography but an index which will tell a researcher what censuses provide information on particular population characteristics and how those characteristics are defined, mapped, cross-indexed, compared, and discussed.The index should be based on specific, inclusive, and flexible classifying terms. The authors arrive at 24 variables which are grouped on two levels-category and specific item-by the use of either main tables or indexes. The use of indexes is preferred for its reduction of clerical and computer time.In addition to the index (which should be made available in machine-readable form), the authors suggest the concomitant publication (on the basis of unified classifications) of an analysis of the relative value of different definitions of population characteristics, a merged-item vocabulary, and indexes to various censuses. Once the study has developed beyond an experimental phase limited in geographic extent and in time, the authors envision a continuing service which will provide indexes to all new censuses.     

Education and religion: Individual, congregational, and cross-level interaction effects on biblical literalism

Using ideas from cultural and organizational theory, I examine the interplay of individual and congregation-level educational attainment on biblical literalism. Data on 387 congregations and 100,009 worshippers (US Congregational Life Survey, 2001) are used to test hypotheses. Results indicate that the effects of congregational education and individual educational attainment are among the largest effects in models. This study is the first to show that regardless of an individual’s own education, affirmations of biblical literalism are less likely when persons with higher education dominate a congregation. This finding brings into relief the important role of social context in persons’ belief in biblical literalism. Additionally, congregational education amplifies the influence of individual education on biblical literalism such that the gap in belief between college/non-college education individuals widens in high education congregations. This finding suggests that high education persons more deeply absorb the influence of a more educated congregational context.     

Propensity score prediction for electronic healthcare databases using super learner and high-dimensional propensity score methods

ABSTRACT

The optimal learner for prediction modeling varies depending on the underlying data-generating distribution. Super Learner (SL) is a generic ensemble learning algorithm that uses cross-validation to select among a ‘library’ of candidate prediction models. While SL has been widely studied in a number of settings, it has not been thoroughly evaluated in large electronic healthcare databases that are common in pharmacoepidemiology and comparative effectiveness research. In this study, we applied and evaluated the performance of SL in its ability to predict the propensity score (PS), the conditional probability of treatment assignment given baseline covariates, using three electronic healthcare databases. We considered a library of algorithms that consisted of both nonparametric and parametric models. We also proposed a novel strategy for prediction modeling that combines SL with the high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS) variable selection algorithm. Predictive performance was assessed using three metrics: the negative log-likelihood, area under the curve (AUC), and time complexity. Results showed that the best individual algorithm, in terms of predictive performance, varied across datasets. The SL was able to adapt to the given dataset and optimize predictive performance relative to any individual learner. Combining the SL with the hdPS was the most consistent prediction method and may be promising for PS estimation and prediction modeling in electronic healthcare databases.     

Getting your supervisors and managers on the right team

They do a great job. So we promote them. Now they supervise people who don't do the job as well as they did. We give them a big raise. But because they're exempt they make less than their leads. They have the toughest job in the company—managing people. So we grant them an entire day of training to prepare. We ask them to mentor, coach, and have close relationships with their direct reports—all 132 of them. Then when the stock dips, we blame “middle management” and lay a bunch of them off.     

Perceived effectiveness and implementation of public relations measurement and evaluation tools among European providers and consumers of PR services

While the need for and lack of implementation of more sophisticated methods for measuring the impact of public relations efforts has been well documented in the U.S. and some other world regions, relatively little information exist about this practice in the European Union. Results from a survey of both consumers and providers of public relations in the EU shows that perceptions of effectiveness and actual use are not related for most advanced techniques of measurement and evaluation. These results demonstrate some potentially important differences between the perceptions of providers and consumers that may support practitioner observations regarding a lack of interest among clients in more accurate assessment of results from public relations activities.     

Technology,Geography, and Trade

We develop a Ricardian trade model that incorporates realistic geographic features into general equilibrium. It delivers simple structural equations for bilateral trade with parameters relating to absolute advantage, to comparative advantage (promoting trade), and to geographic barriers (resisting it). We estimate the parameters with data on bilateral trade in manufactures, prices, and geography from 19 OECD countries in 1990. We use the model to explore various issues such as the gains from trade, the role of trade in spreading the benefits of new technology, and the effects of tariff reduction.