Anatomy of a Municipal Triumph: New York City's Upsurge in Life Expectancy

Over the period 1990–2010, the increase in life expectancy for males in New York City was 6.0 years greater than for males in the United States. The female relative gain was 3.9 years. Male relative gains were larger because of extremely rapid reductions in mortality from HIV/AIDS and homicide, declines that reflect effective municipal policies and programs. Declines in drug‐ and alcohol‐related deaths also played a significant role in New York City's advance, but every major cause of death contributed to its relative improvement. By 2010, New York City had a life expectancy that was 1.9 years greater than that of the US. This difference is attributable to the high representation of immigrants in New York's population. Immigrants to New York City, and to the United States, have life expectancies that are among the highest in the world. The fact that 38 percent of New York's population consists of immigrants, compared to only 14 percent in the United States, accounts for New York's exceptional standing in life expectancy in 2010. In fact, US‐born New Yorkers have a life expectancy below that of the United States itself.     

Needs for National Studies of Population Dynamics

Abstract

In this paper, current notions of “labeling theory” are faulted for being overly inclusive and lacking theoretical specificity. In response to this, a delimitation of labeling, to the naming process, is proposed and a four stage processual conceptualization is offered relative to that delimited notion of labeling. This reconceptualization features a multi-process model involving: typing, designating; assessing; and resisting labels. Following the model overview, typing, the first stage in the sequence is examined in greater detail. Target associated appearances, consequences, responsibility, and values, are considered, as these affect typings. The impact of existing typings on subsequent typings is also examined and the problematics of assessing target information from others is considered, as well as conditions influencing confidence in target typings.     

Looks‐Based Hiring and Wrongful Discrimination

Popular clothing retailer Abercrombie and Fitch (A&F) is well‐known for hiring attractive store sales clerks. While the economic benefits of this hiring practice for the company are undeniable, many commentators contend that it constitutes wrongful discrimination against unattractive job seekers. In this article, I explore the ethics of A&F‐style lookism and challenge two common perspectives on this issue. I argue that on one hand, looks‐based hiring cannot be defended based on its economic benefits alone, as race‐based hiring also can be profitable in some circumstances. At the same time, I reject arguments that looks‐based hiring is not “job relevant” given its economic impact in many contexts. Through a comparison between race‐ and looks‐based hiring, I conclude that at least for businesses that are relevantly similar to A&F—firms for which lookism produces clear economic benefits—looks‐based hiring is permissible.     

Fast and approximate exhaustive variable selection for generalised linear models with APES

We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.     

Pearson-Tukey Three-Point Approximations Versus Monte Carlo Simulation

Accuracy of the Pearson-Tukey three-point approximation is measured in units of standard deviation and compared with that of Monte Carlo simulation. Using a variety of well-known distributions, comparisons are made for the mean of a random variable and for common functions of one and two random variables. Comparisons are also made for the mean of an assortment of risk-analysis (Monte Carlo) models drawn from the literature. The results suggest that the Pearson-Tukey approximation is a useful alternative to simulation in risk-analysis situations.     

Deepwater Horizon oil spill exposure and child health: a longitudinal analysis

Population and Environment - The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS) created widespread concern about threats to health among residents of the Louisiana Gulf Coast. This study uses data from the...     

How leader role identity influences the process of leader emergence: A social network analysis

Contemporary theories on leadership development emphasize the importance of having a leader identity in building leadership skills and functioning effectively as leaders. We build on this approach by unpacking the role leader identity plays in the leader emergence process. Taking the perspective that leadership is a dynamic social process between group members, we propose a social network-based process model whereby leader role identity predicts network centrality (i.e., betweenness and indegree), which then contributes to leader emergence. We test our model using a sample of 88 cadets participating in a leadership development training course. In support of our model, cadets who possess a stronger leader role identity at the beginning of the course were more likely to emerge as leaders. However this relationship was only mediated by one form of network centrality, indegree centrality, reflecting one's ability to build relationships within one's group. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Youth emancipation and perceived job insecurity of parents and children

We test whether job insecurity of parents and children affect children’s moving-out decisions. Macroeconomic estimates for 13 European countries over 1983–2004 show that coresidence increases by 1.7 percentage points (PP) following a 10 PP rise in the share of youths perceiving their job to be insecure and declines by 1.1 PP following the same increment in insecurity for older workers. Microeconometric evidence for Italy in the mid-1990s shows that the probability of moving out increases by about half a percentage point for a one-standard-deviation increase in paternal insecurity and by one-third of a percentage point for a one-standard-deviation decrease in children’s insecurity.