Time series analysis of stratospheric ozone

Time series analyses of monthly average total ozone measured at 37 stations throughout the world were used to estimate the extent to which the average ozone trend correlates with the depletion curve hypothesized as due to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Statistical characteristics of stations in the ensemble were used to help define appropriate model and station selection criteria. The maximum likelihood procedure developed herein estimates the weighted average trend, its. variance, and the intra- and inter-station variance components of the trend. Correlations among trends at different stations are also taken into account. The models were subjected to much checking and criticism. Variations in statistical methodology are used to show that the results are insensitive to details of the model selection criteria. The method does not discriminate well between the hypothesized CFC trend and a linear trend. The trend estimates represent the sum of all long-term global effects. The variance includes all effects that differ from station-to-station. The estimated trend and 2α limits for 14 stations with 20-year records (1958-79) is an ozone increase through 1979 of (1.5+1.0) percent. At the 23 stations with shorter records, the trend is (1.0=1.7) percent. It is concluded that no significant depletion in stratospheric ozone has occurred from any cause through the end of 1979.     

Smooth goodness of fit tests for the weibull distribution with singly censored data

The smooth goodness of fit tests are generalized to singly censored data and applied to the problem of testing Weibull (or extreme value) fit. Smooth tests, Pearson-type tests, and the spacings tests proposed by Mann, Schemer, and Fertig (1973) are compared on the basis of local asymptotic relative efficiency with respect to the asymptotic best test against generalized gamma alternatives, The smooth test of order one Is found to be most efficient for the generalized gamma alternatives.     

Survival Estimation with Missing Censoring Times for the Generalized Koziol–Green Model

ABSTRACT

When analyzing time-to-event data, there are various situations in which right censoring times for unfailed units are missing. In that context, by taking a supplementary sample of a convenient percentage of unfailed units, we propose a semi-parametric method for estimating a survival function under the natural extension of the Koziol–Green model to double random censoring. Some large sample properties of this estimator are derived. We prove uniform strong consistency and asymptotic weak convergence to a Gaussian process. A simulation study is also presented in order to analyze the behavior of the proposed estimator.     

A new rank test for the K-Sample problem

The treatment sum of squares in the one-way analysis of variance can be expressed in two different ways: as a sum of comparisons between each treatment and the remaining treatments combined, or as a sum of comparisons between the treatments two at a time. When comparisons between treatments are made with the Wilcoxon rank sum statistic, these two expressions lead to two different tests; namely, that of Kruskal and Wallis and one which is essentially the same as that proposed by Crouse (1961,1966). The latter statistic is known to be asymptotically distributed as a chi-squared variable when the numbers of replicates are large. Here it is shown to be asymptotically normal when the replicates are few but the number of treatments is large. For all combinations of numbers of replicates and treatments its empirical distribution is well approximated by a beta distribution     

The pitman nearness criterion and its determination

A general method for determining Pitman Nearness is given In the case of univariate estimators. This method is then applied to some estimation problems. The concept of Pitman Nearness is also generalized to the multivariate case. The James-Stein estimators are used to illustrate the multivariate comparison.     

Bayesian prediction bounds for the pareto lifetime model

Suppose that the length of time in years for which a business operates until failure has a Pareto distribution. Let x₁ ≤ x₂ x₃ ≤…≤z_k denote the survival lifetimes of the first k of a random sample of n businesses. Bayesian predictions are to be made on the ordered failure times of t h e remaining (n-k) businesses, using the conditional probability density function. Examples are given to illustrate our results.     

Serial unblocked designs balanced for correlation between neighbours,II

The theory in Part I contained an error that was inferred from the output of a program, written in SAS by Eric P. Smith and David D. Morris. The program produces random BUS designs in accordance with the algorithm of Part I. The theory is here corrected by using a combinatorial argument that involves elementary number theory. The algorithm needs no change but its interpretation is now adjusted.     

An exact test for nbue class of survival functions

Let F(x) be a life distribution. An exact test is given for testing H₀ F is exponential, versusH₁Fε NBUE (NWUE); along with a table of critical values for n=5(l)80, and n=80(5)65. An asymptotic test is made available for large values of n, where the standardized normal table can be used for testing.     

Predicting Insurance Losses Under Cross-Classification: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Various mathematical and statistical models for estimation of automobile insurance pricing are reviewed. The methods are compared on their predictive ability based on two sets of automobile insurance data for two different states collected over two different periods. The issue of model complexity versus data availability is resolved through a comparison of the accuracy of prediction. The models reviewed range from the use of simple cell means to various multiplicative-additive schemes to the empirical-Bayes approach. The empirical-Bayes approach, with prediction based on both model-based and individual cell estimates, seems to yield the best forecast.