Computationally and statistically efficient model fitting techniques

A significant challenge in fitting metamodels of large-scale simulations with sufficient accuracy is in the computational time required for rigorous statistical validation. This paper addresses the statistical computation issues associated with the Bootstrap and modified PRESS statistic, which yield key metrics for error measurements in metamodelling validation. Experimentation is performed on different programming languages, namely, MATLAB, R, and Python, and implemented on different computing architectures including traditional multicore personal computers and high-power clusters with parallel computing capabilities. This study yields insight into the effect that programming languages and computing architecture have on the computational time for simulation metamodel validation. The experimentation is performed across two scenarios with varying complexity.     

It's About Time! Examining Received Dosage and Program Duration as Predictors of Change Among Non‐Distressed and Distressed Married Couple and Relationship Education Participants

Although Couple and Relationship Education (CRE) programs were intended to be preventive in nature, an emerging reality is that relationally distressed couples are attending programs. This has raised questions about both its general usefulness and what is known regarding predictors of change in CRE for distressed couples particularly. Previous work has identified dosage and duration as important moderators of changes, and there are myriad program contexts offered, highlighting the need to examine these among distressed couples. This study utilized a sample of community CRE participants and examined received dosage and program duration as predictors of change. Comparing results for distressed and non‐distressed participants, we found several group differences. Findings suggest that it is important to consider distress level and time spent in programs when placing participants. In addition, research should continue to examine these groups separately (or comparatively) to find out what works for whom.     

The Paranoid Style Revisited: Pseudo‐Conservatism in the 21st Century

Fifty years ago, the Pulitzer Prize‐winning historian Richard Hofstadter published the seminal essay, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics.” In this and related works he examined the rhetoric animating the extreme right‐wing of the country's electorate. In this article I revisit Hofstadter's claims regarding the marginalization of the paranoid style and its connection to status‐based politics. A review of the most popular “pseudo‐conservative” commentators, survey data, the rise of the Tea Party, and the intransigence of the present day Republican Party suggests that a worldview that was once extreme has now become “mainstreme” within the political culture.     

The Development of a Reliable Change Index and Cutoff for the Revised Dyadic Adjustment Scale

The Revised Dyadic Adjustment Scale (RDAS; Busby, Crane, Larson, & Christensen, 1995) is a measure of couple relationship adjustment that is often used to differentiate between distressed and non‐distressed couples. While the measure currently allows for a determination of whether group mean scores change significantly across administrations, it lacks the ability to determine whether an individual's change in dyadic adjustment is clinically significant. This study addresses this limitation by establishing a cutoff of 47.31 and reliable change index of 11.58 for the RDAS by pooling data across multiple community and clinical samples. An individual whose score on the RDAS moves across the cutoff changes by 12 or more points can be classified as experiencing clinically significant change.     

The Chinese Cashmere Industry: A Global Value Chain Analysis

Growth and internationalisation of the Chinese economy have reconfigured the global value chains of many commodities with important implications for industry and rural and regional development both in and outside China. This article analyses the chain for cashmere, all stages of which have gravitated to China, and the impacts on rural development, especially for herders in remote pastoral regions. Traditionally a high‐value product, cashmere has become increasingly generic and adulterated over the past decade. More formal and closer integration of Chinese actors into the global industry and re‐orienting policy from supply‐side intervention to the enforcement of standards would enhance the competitiveness of Chinese cashmere in international fibre markets.     

The Influence of Acculturation on Breastfeeding Initiation and Duration for Mexican-Americans

This paper uses data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to test the hypotheses that (1) similar to other positive pre- and post-natal outcomes, Mexican immigrant mothers are more likely to breastfeed, and to breastfeed longer, than white or Mexican-American mothers; and (2) acculturation accounts for the ethnic/nativity differential in breastfeeding initiation and duration. The results support both hypotheses. Mexican immigrants to the U.S. are much more likely than whites to breastfeed, and to breastfeed longer. Mexican-American mothers, after controlling for background characteristics, have similar initiation and duration to whites. Using expanded acculturation measures developed for this paper, acculturation accounts for some of the difference between whites and Mexican immigrants in breastfeeding initiation, and much of the difference for breastfeeding duration. The results suggest that low levels of acculturation operate to protect Mexican immigrants from choosing to formula-feed, which gives their babies many health advantages, and may be associated with better health outcomes across the life course. The results also suggest that successive generations of Mexican immigrants may abandon breastfeeding, which is deleterious for their infants.     

Substance use among older youth transitioning from foster care: Examining the protective effects of religious and spiritual capital

Among older youth transitioning from the foster care system, this longitudinal study examined the association of religious and spiritual capital to substance use in the past year at age 19. Participants consisted of African American (N = 179) and White non‐Hispanic (N = 133) older youth in foster care. Drawing from social capital theory, it was posited that religious service attendance (a proxy for religious capital) and belief in a spiritual force (a proxy for spiritual capital) would be inversely associated with substance use. Multiple logistic regression results indicated support for the first and second hypothesis for White foster youth only. Among White foster youth, more frequent religious service attendance and greater belief in a spiritual force were associated with a lower likelihood of illegal substance and polysubstance use. No association between religious or spiritual capital and substance use was found among African American foster youth. The findings underscore the importance of conducting spiritual assessments to help ensure older foster youth who have strong religious or spiritual orientations are in environments where they are accommodated and supported.     

Fathering With Multiple Partners: Links to Children's Well‐Being in Early Childhood

The claim that multiple partner fertility may pose a risk of adverse outcomes for children has not been tested. We test this argument using a sample of 4,027 resident fathers and children from the Fragile Families and Child Well‐being Survey by examining the pathways through which fathers' multipartnered fertility is associated with children's externalizing behaviors and physical health status at 36 months. Path analyses indicate that multiple partner fertility exerted both a significant direct and indirect effect through paternal depression to influence children's externalizing behaviors. Fathers' multiple partner fertility also exerted a significant indirect effect through one mediator—father involvement—to influence children's physical health. This evidence suggests that the disruptions brought about by multipartnered fertility are important for understanding child well‐being.     

MARKET STRUCTURE AND MEDIA DIVERSITY

We estimate a mixed logit model of the demand for local news service. Results provide evidence that suggest the representative consumer values more diverse news, more coverage of multicultural issues, and more information on community news, and has a distaste for advertising. Demand estimates are used to calculate the impact on consumer welfare from a marginal decrease in the number of independent television stations that lowers the amount of diversity, multiculturalism, community news, and advertising. Consumer welfare decreases, but the losses are smaller in large markets. For example, small‐market consumers lose $45 million annually while large‐market consumers lose $13 million. (JEL C9, C25, L13, L82, L96)