从全球人口百年(1950～2050)审视我国人口国策的抉择

基于“人口众多”这一基本国情,我国自20世纪80年代前后采取了严格控制人口增长的政策。对于这一政策应科学、全面地衡量其利害得失。文章利用全球人口资料和我国历次人口普查及人口预测资料,从人口规模、结构的发展变化作实证研究。最终认为,我国的人口国策是利大于弊。     

Inventory Record Inaccuracy,Double Marginalization,and RFID Adoption

Most retailers suffer from substantial discrepancies between inventory quantities recorded in the system and stocks truly available to customers. Promising full inventory transparency, radio frequency identification (RFID) technology has often been suggested as a remedy to the problem. We consider inventory record inaccuracy in a supply chain model, where a Stackelberg manufacturer sets the wholesale price and a retailer determines how much to stock for sale to customers. We first analyze the impact of inventory record inaccuracy on optimal stocking decisions and profits. By contrasting optimal decisions in a decentralized supply chain with those in an integrated supply chain, we find that inventory record inaccuracy exacerbates the inefficiencies resulting from double marginalization in decentralized supply chains. Assuming RFID technology can eliminate the problem of inventory record inaccuracy, we determine the cost thresholds at which RFID adoption becomes profitable. We show that a decentralized supply chain benefits more from RFID technology, such that RFID adoption improves supply chain coordination.     

魔兽与母亲——灾难的象征论

1991年10月发生在奥克兰地区的大火灾造成25人丧生,6000多人无家可归。幸存者用各种方式表达自己对这场灾难的认识,其中凸显了有关自然与文化、有序与无序、时间与空间以及传统的男女性别区分与生死等二元结构,尤其是对作为自然象征的母亲与作为灾难象征的魔兽二者之间的对立显示了自然与非自然力量的对比。人们为了解释灾难的去而复来,甚至认定灾难的发生是早已注定的、循环的,从而肯定了上帝对于自然灾害发生的控制权,由此,毁灭者也是创造者。奥克兰大火中隐含着如建筑材料的不当使用和居民区的不合理规划等技术性因素,因此其可部分归结为技术性灾难。而由于技术性灾难产生于一个文化的竞技场,而不是自然自身的,在这种情况下,能满足人们心理需求的合乎情理的灾难意象或隐喻非常少,因此,技术性灾难不会流变为神话,而是作为永远的历史而存在。综观上述过程,灾难被重新界定为＂创造性的毁灭＂,从而被赋予了一种令人敬畏的美。尽管并非所有的文化都会以上述方式去象征地表达灾难,但所有的文化在描述与解释灾难时,象征都将会是他们行动的一部分。这些象征的建立缓解或消解了灾民对于灾难的恐惧,这也可以部分解释为什么灾难多发区的居民大多不愿意搬迁。     

How Co-operative is Co-operative Purchasing in Smaller Firms?: Evidence from UK Engineering SMEs

Most SMEs do not try to engage in co-operative purchasing arrangements, and even those that do don’t handle them very well. Examining a sample of SME engineering firms from the UK Midlands for signs of more advanced practice, the authors identify three types of behaviour: firms with deliberate strategies (where co-operative purchasing is a consciously-designed and long-term part of management policy); firms with close ties with their suppliers but which still operate fundamentally adversarial policies (where, despite some development of practice, defensive, short-term and ‘low-trust’ attitudes still predominate) and those whose strategies, maybe of long standing, ‘just happened’ and are described as still emergent. The article analyses these positions to yield lessons for managers, recognising that, as firms grow, emergent strategies will need replacing with something more codified.     

Managerial Involvement and Perceptions of Strategy Process

Prior academic research attests to both positive and negative effects of involvement on the process of developing strategy. On the one hand, it has been argued that involvement strengthens shared vision, increases rationality and improves adaptiveness in strategy-making. On the other hand, involvement is said to lead to intense political behaviour, increased cultural inertia and more constraints in the strategy process. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relative importance of these effects. In a survey of over 6,000 managers, we find that their reported levels of involvement are positively associated with perceptions of strategy development processes that are more rational, more focused by a shared vision, and more adaptive. In addition, involvement is negatively associated with statements describing the process as top-down, influenced by politics and slowed by internal culture. Moreover, those who are more involved tend to see business and non-business constraints as less important in determining strategy. We argue that these associations between involvement and desirable features of strategy process are important because perceptions are the basis of managerial behaviour. Thus, managers who are more involved in strategy not only see the process in a more favourable light but also act in ways that make the process more effective. The main implication of these findings is that for most organisations increasing involvement improves the strategy process.     

The Blinders of Dominant Logic

This article argues that the dominant logic embedded in an organisation may keep it on the road ahead, but it also acts as a blinder to peripheral vision. It says that managers need to look at beyond the borders of their industries and geographies to find new opportunities and rethink the logic of the business. It refers to corporate examples where shifts in organisations’ dominant logic allowed traditional assumptions about value creation to be reassessed and resulted in successful forays into the periphery.     

Mining the Periphery for New Products

Revolutionary products often come from upstart players or companies outside the industry, while mainstream operators follow a risk-averse path of concentrating on their current business. This article urges companies to channel resources into looking at the periphery for ideas that could be profit-drivers of the future. It suggests three strategies for finding new products: frame the landscape; develop game-changing hypotheses; and use targeted hunting. It concludes by saying that these approaches will encourage managers to combine broad searching and thinking with focused evaluation and execution.