A Monte Carlo simulation study on partially adaptive estimators of linear regression models

This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of well-known partially adaptive estimators (PAEs) in terms of efficiency in estimating regression parameters. The aim is to identify the best estimators of regression parameters when error terms follow from normal, Laplace, Student's t, normal mixture, lognormal and gamma distribution via the Monte Carlo simulation. In the results of the simulation, efficient PAEs are determined in the case of symmetric leptokurtic and skewed leptokurtic regression error data. Additionally, these estimators are also compared in terms of regression applications. Regarding these applications, using certain standard error estimators, it is shown that PAEs can reduce the standard error of the slope parameter estimate relative to ordinary least squares.     

Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series

An asymptotic theory is developed for nonlinear regression with integrated processes. The models allow for nonlinear effects from unit root time series and therefore deal with the case of parametric nonlinear cointegration. The theory covers integrable and asymptotically homogeneous functions. Sufficient conditions for weak consistency are given and a limit distribution theory is provided. The rates of convergence depend on the properties of the nonlinear regression function, and are shown to be as slow as n^1/4 for integrable functions, and to be generally polynomial in n^1/2 for homogeneous functions. For regressions with integrable functions, the limiting distribution theory is mixed normal with mixing variates that depend on the sojourn time of the limiting Brownian motion of the integrated process.     

In search of disability rights: citizenship and Turkish disability organizations

Criticizing modern citizenship’s emphasis on the ‘nation’ as a homogeneous body of citizens, recent citizenship conceptions draw attention to diverse group identities and their differentiated rights‐claims. By way of scrutinizing different disability organizations, this paper analyzes the struggles by people with disabilities in Turkey and examines whether these could be perceived as claims to new forms of citizenship. It argues that due to the institutional, political, cultural and historical specificities of Turkey, most non‐governmental organizations maintain relations of patronage with state actors. Far from initiating a rights‐based discourse, their activities cannot be perceived within recent citizenship frameworks. Yet, parallel to Turkey’s accession process to the EU and technological developments, alternative forms of organizing started emerging at the virtual level. These are the harbingers of a relatively more rights‐based discourse.     

Reliability,Validity, and Cut Scores of the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) for Chinese

We examined the reliability, validity, and classification accuracy of the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) when adopted for use in Chinese. The DSM-IV criteria for pathological gambling served as the standard against which the classification accuracy of the SOGS was tested. A total of 283 Chinese adults in the community and 94 Chinese treatment-seeking gamblers were recruited. The internal reliability of the SOGS was satisfactory for the general sample and acceptable for the gambling sample. The SOGS was correlated with the DSM-IV criteria items as well as psychosocial and gambling-related problems. Relative to the DSM-IV criteria, the SOGS tended to overestimate the number of pathological gamblers in both samples. In general, we were relatively confident that individuals were not pathological gamblers if the SOGS scores were between 0 and 4 and were pathological gamblers if the SOGS were between 11 and 20. There was about 50–50 chance of being pathological gamblers if the SOGS scores were between 8 and 10. However, the probability of individuals being pathological gamblers was about 0.30 if the SOGS scores were between 5 and 7. We proposed a SOGS cut score of 8 to screen for probable pathological gambling in Chinese societies.     

Civic capacity: Building on transformational leadership to explain successful integrative public leadership

An emerging stream of work has been investigating the leadership processes necessary to guide public multi-sector collaborations. This stream of work argues that new leadership theory about integrative public leadership is needed because the context is different from that traditionally investigated by leadership researchers. In this paper, we advance the study of integrative public leadership by arguing that transformational leadership theory does apply to multi-sector collaborations, but needs to be augmented with an additional construct called “civic capacity.” We elaborate on this construct and suggest that it consists of three components: civic drive, civic connections, and civic pragmatism.     

王茂荫纸币思想新论

作为咸丰货币改革中的重要一员,王茂荫的货币思想一直为国内外学界所关注。中国学界长期认为他是一位反对名目论传统的理论金属论者,但实际却不然。王茂荫货币思想的核心理念是以实运虚,主要体现在两个方面:实际运作中政府需要一定比率的商品货币储备支持纸币;根据预定的货币法则,纸币和商品货币在一定比率下同时流通。他提倡保持商品储备以坚定纸币持有者对纸币的信心,主张权力机构制定纸币的价值,并需要持币者的信任去支持。而货币信用理论认为虽然货币的价值由货币发行机构(通常是政府)所制定,但需要获得持币者的信任才能成功。实用金属论认为在某一历史情况下,纸币的发行需要商品储备的支持。这些恰恰表明了王茂荫是持货币信用理论的实用金属论者。在未受到西方影响的中国货币思想传统中,王茂荫是最富于创见的一位思想者。他提倡的将公共货币和私票相结合的规则如被采纳和认真执行,将会使咸丰货币改革在更大程度上获得成功,很可能会改写历史进程。     

Use of Risk Assessment and Likelihood Estimation to Analyze Spatial Distribution Pattern of Respiratory Infection Cases

Obvious spatial infection patterns are often observed in cases associated with airborne transmissible diseases. Existing quantitative infection risk assessment models analyze the observed cases by assuming a homogeneous infectious particle concentration and ignore the spatial infection pattern, which may cause errors. This study aims at developing an approach to analyze spatial infection patterns associated with infectious respiratory diseases or other airborne transmissible diseases using infection risk assessment and likelihood estimation. Mathematical likelihood, based on binomial probability, was used to formulate the retrospective component with some additional mathematical treatments. Together with an infection risk assessment model that can address spatial heterogeneity, the method can be used to analyze the spatial infection pattern and retrospectively estimate the influencing parameters causing the cases, such as the infectious source strength of the pathogen. A Varicella outbreak was selected to demonstrate the use of the new approach. The infectious source strength estimated by the Wells‐Riley concept using the likelihood estimation was compared with the estimation using the existing method. It was found that the maximum likelihood estimation matches the epidemiological observation of the outbreak case much better than the estimation under the assumption of homogeneous infectious particle concentration. Influencing parameters retrospectively estimated using the new approach can be used as input parameters in quantitative infection risk assessment of the disease under other scenarios. The approach developed in this study can also serve as an epidemiological tool in outbreak investigation. Limitations and further developments are also discussed.