The Civilizational Measure “Krymnash” [“Crimea Is Ours”]

The article discusses the notion of “Russian Civilization,” and the ways in which it has been challenged in the last two centuries. Central to the discussion is the question of the extent to which there is a shared Slavic set of cultural beliefs, and the degree to which Russian/Slavic civilization is prepared to move from a state-centered to an individual-centered set of values.     

Sample size calculation for the Power Model for dose proportionality studies

There are several approaches to assess or demonstrate pharmacokinetic dose proportionality. One statistical method is the traditional ANOVA model, where dose proportionality is evaluated using the bioequivalence limits. A more informative method is the mixed effects Power Model, where dose proportionality is assessed using a decision rule for the estimated slope. Here we propose analytical derivations of sample sizes for various designs (including crossover, incomplete block and parallel group designs) to be analysed according to the Power Model.     

Steepest descent algorithms in a space of measures

The paper describes descent type algorithms suitable for solving optimisation problems for functionals that depend on measures. We mention several examples of such problems that appear in optimal design, cluster analysis and optimisation of spatial distribution of coverage processes.     

Survey of research on fuzzy sets in the Soviet Union

This paper surveys Soviet literature of fuzzy set theory and applications. A bibliography containing about 250 titles is presented.     

Exploring the ‘True Value’ of Replacement Rate Fertility

Population Research and Policy Review - The concept of ‘replacement rate fertility’ [RRF] is widely known and referred to regularly in the popular, policy and academic literature....     

Serum oxidizability potential is associated with age and exercise test results

The purpose of this paper is to find out whether serum oxidizability potential measured before an exercise test (EXT) correlates with age and ischemic heart disease severity. Oxidizability potential was determined in 3 age groups, in gr. I patients < 45 years, in gr. II age range = 45 - 70years {hbox{range}} = {45} - {7}0{hbox{years}} , and in gr. III patients > 70 years. Included subjects had chronic ischemic heart disease (IHD) and underwent a symptom-limited EXT upon initiation of a cardiac rehabilitation program. The thermo-chemiluminescence (TCL) assay was used to assess serum oxidizability potential. This assay is based on heat-induced oxidation of serum, leading to the formation of electronically excited species in the form of unstable carbonyls, which further decompose into stable carbonyls and light energy (low chemiluminescence). Measured photons emission is represented by a kinetic curve which is described by its amplitude and slope (=ratio). We assessed the correlations of TCL ratio with age, exercise duration, metabolic equivalents (METS), maximal heart rate (mHR), maximal systolic BP, >1 mm S-T depression, diabetes, hypertension, smoking, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)> or <40%, previous myocardial infarction, and aorto-coronary bypass surgery. A high TCL ratio (%) correlated well with METS (r = 0.82), mHR (r = 0.77) and with exercise-induced S-T segment shift (r = 0.86, p < 0.05). A lower serum oxidizability potential, expressed as a low TCL ratio, thus suggestive of a previous high oxidative stress, was found in the two older age groups compared to gr. I (<45 years), p = 0.041, and in particular, in gr. III patients with low LVEF%. The TCL ratio (%) in gr. III was 188.7 ± 14.5, 192 ± 17 in gr. II, and 214 ± 13 in gr. I (p < 0.05), and was 166 ± 13.1 in gr. III with LVEF < 45% as compared to 271 ± 15.7 in gr. I patients with LVEF > 45% (p < 0.01). A trend for lower TCL ratio (%) was found in diabetic, hypertensive, and post-coronary bypass surgery patients. A paradoxically low TCL ratio (low oxidizability potential) was observed in patients without S-T depression compared to patients with S-T depression (189 ± 22 vs. 201 ± 15, p = NS), due to the fact these patients had a much lower LVEF% and a lower exercise capacity. Serum oxidizability potential is associated with age, EXT parameters, results, and IHD severity. TCL ratio is an “easy-to-measure marker” that might be incorporated into risk assessment and prediction in aged IHD patients.     

World Health Organization Regional Assessments of the Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks

While global polio eradication requires tremendous efforts in countries where wild polioviruses (WPVs) circulate, numerous outbreaks have occurred following WPV importation into previously polio‐free countries. Countries that have interrupted endemic WPV transmission should continue to conduct routine risk assessments and implement mitigation activities to maintain their polio‐free status as long as wild poliovirus circulates anywhere in the world. This article reviews the methods used by World Health Organization (WHO) regional offices to qualitatively assess risk of WPV outbreaks following an importation. We describe the strengths and weaknesses of various risk assessment approaches, and opportunities to harmonize approaches. These qualitative assessments broadly categorize risk as high, medium, or low using available national information related to susceptibility, the ability to rapidly detect WPV, and other population or program factors that influence transmission, which the regions characterize using polio vaccination coverage, surveillance data, and other indicators (e.g., sanitation), respectively. Data quality and adequacy represent a challenge in all regions. WHO regions differ with respect to the methods, processes, cut‐off values, and weighting used, which limits comparisons of risk assessment results among regions. Ongoing evaluation of indicators within regions and further harmonization of methods between regions are needed to effectively plan risk mitigation activities in a setting of finite resources for funding and continued WPV circulation.     

Epidemiological transition of mortality curves in terms of the Brass logit system

Historical life tables for developed countries are analysed in order to present the epidemiological transition in terms of Brass's logit system. The results of this analysis are used to determine the range of the two Brass model parameters consistent with historical life tables. This range also includes human life tables that could have been observed in pre-transitional stages or could occur in the future.     

Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Length

It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a longer mean length of generations implies slower shrinking, and thus a relatively larger population in the very long run. This note compares the relative importance of the two effects analytically and with data for the 15‐country European Union. It also considers whether an increase in the mean age of childbearing will decrease the quantum of fertility. This question is highly relevant in the context of the effects of possible policies aiming to influence the tempo of fertility rather than the quantum directly. The results show that for the coming 200 years the effect of tempo changes clearly dominates, with the effect of a shorter mean length of generation only becoming visible thereafter. Even small tempo‐quantum interactions can overwhelm the generation‐length effect.