The Determination of Social Need—A Model of Need Statements in Social Administration

It is suggested that much of the confusion around the use of the concept of social need in social administration is that need has been conceptualized primarily within a positivist paradigm, with the implication that it is objectively measurable. An alternative model is proposed, which is a model of need statements rather than need per se, so that the focus of study is the definition of need and the person or group making that judgment. This model incorporates the experience of the need definer, and the data base on which the need judgment is made.     

Reliable error estimation for Sobol’ indices

In the field of sensitivity analysis, Sobol’ indices are sensitivity measures widely used to assess the importance of inputs of a model to its output. The estimation of these indices is often performed through Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo methods. A notable method is the replication procedure that estimates first-order indices at a reduced cost in terms of number of model evaluations. An inherent practical problem of this estimation is how to quantify the number of model evaluations needed to ensure that estimates satisfy a desired error tolerance. This article addresses this challenge by proposing a reliable error bound for first-order and total effect Sobol’ indices. Starting from the integral formula of the indices, the error bound is defined in terms of the discrete Walsh coefficients of the different integrands. We propose a sequential estimation procedure of Sobol’ indices using the error bound as a stopping criterion. The sequential procedure combines Sobol’ sequences with either Saltelli’s strategy to estimate both first-order and total effect indices, or the replication procedure to estimate only first-order indices.     

Exact estimation of multiple directed acyclic graphs

This paper considers structure learning for multiple related directed acyclic graph (DAG) models. Building on recent developments in exact estimation of DAGs using integer linear programming (ILP), we present an ILP approach for joint estimation over multiple DAGs. Unlike previous work, we do not require that the vertices in each DAG share a common ordering. Furthermore, we allow for (potentially unknown) dependency structure between the DAGs. Results are presented on both simulated data and fMRI data obtained from multiple subjects.     

Empirical characteristic function tests for GARCH innovation distribution using multipliers

Goodness-of-fit tests for the innovation distribution in GARCH models based on measuring deviations between the empirical characteristic function of the residuals and the characteristic function under the null hypothesis have been proposed in the literature. The asymptotic distributions of these test statistics depend on unknown quantities, so their null distributions are usually estimated through parametric bootstrap (PB). Although easy to implement, the PB can become very computationally expensive for large sample sizes, which is typically the case in applications of these models. This work proposes to approximate the null distribution through a weighted bootstrap. The procedure is studied both theoretically and numerically. Its asymptotic properties are similar to those of the PB, but, from a computational point of view, it is more efficient.     

World Class Manufacturing: Further Evidence in the Lean Production Debate1

This paper reports the results of a study into the performance and management practices of 18 autocomponents plants, nine of which were located in the UK and nine in Japan. The study compared the performance of these plants and used quantitative measures to test the use of lean production techniques among the high performers. Five plants displayed high performance on measures of both productivity and quality. All of these were located in Japan. Several measures of management practice provided some support for the lean production model, particularly in the area of process discipline and control; measures of human resource management policy and work organization proved less significant. Contextual factors pointed to the conditions necessary to support lean production; higher performing plants had more stable demand and lower absenteeism.     

Re-painting the golden gate bridge: Coordination of services for abducted children reunited with their families

This is a case study of a program implemented to serve abducted children who have been recovered and returned to their families. Development of working relationships between and coordination of mental health, law enforcement, child protective, judicial, mediation and victim assistance services is a process which produced effective readjustment services for children traumatized by abduction and has reduced systems trauma for the children and their families. Trials and triumphs of the continuing and tedious process of re-painting the bridge are reviewed as potential guidelines to be employed for other such coordinated efforts, a concept increasingly viewed as thesine qua non of service in complex and chronic problem situations.Credit for the application of the bridge painting metaphor to the Child Abduction Tast Force process goes to Michael Durfee, MD.The Reunification Project would not have been possible without the dedicated work of Rebecca Refuerzo, LCSW, in establishing the Center's Program, and the clinical expertise of Merilla McCurry-Scott, Ph.D., Jenenne Macklin, LCSW, Melissa Gleason, MSW, and Karina Walters, MSW.The Reunification Program is jointly funded by Find the Children and the U.S. Office of Juvenile Justice Programs.     

On the Correspondence Between Physiological and Nonverbal Responses: Nonverbal Behavior Accompanying Challenge and Threat

Little is known regarding the covariance between physiological and nonverbal responses to “stressful” situations. We argue that physiological markers are especially likely to be accompanied by psychologically-meaningful nonverbal behavior. Within “stressful” motivated performance situations, complex patterns of cardiovascular (CV) reactivity mark challenge and threat motivational states relevant to confidence. We expected the CV challenge and threat markers to be distinguished on the basis of facial and vocal confidence. In a test of this hypothesis, participants’ cardiovascular (CV) responses were recorded during a videotaped social interaction. As expected, the CV challenge marker was associated with more vocal confidence and less facial confidence than the CV threat marker. These findings are related to the complexity of human responses to motivated performances.