Fertility Intentions and Residential Relocations

This research addresses the question of whether fertility intentions (before conception) are associated with residential relocations and the distance of the relocation. We empirically tested this using data from two birth cohorts (aged 24–28 and 34–38 in the first survey wave) of the German Family Panel (pairfam) and event history analysis. Bivariate analyses showed that coupled individuals relocated at a higher rate if they intended to have a(nother) child. We found substantial heterogeneity according to individuals’ age and parental status, particularly for outside-town relocations. Childless individuals of average age at family formation—a highly mobile group—relocated at a lower rate if they intended to have a child. In contrast, older individuals who already had children—the least-mobile group—relocated at a higher rate if they intended to have another child. Multivariate analyses show that these associations are largely due to adjustments in housing and other living conditions. Our results suggest that anticipatory relocations (before conception) to adapt to growing household size are importantly nuanced by the opportunities and rationales of couples to adjust their living conditions over the life course. Our research contributes to the understanding of residential mobility as a by-product of fertility decisions and, more broadly, evidences that intentions matter and need to be considered in the analysis of family life courses.     

Multi‐Family Therapy with a Reflecting Team: A Preliminary Study on Efficacy among Opiate Addicts in Methadone Maintenance Treatment

In this study, we evaluate the efficacy of multi‐family therapy at reducing the addiction severity and at improving the psychological and family dynamics of opiate addicts receiving methadone treatment at a public treatment center. The study compares multi‐family therapy with a reflecting team (MFT‐RT) and a standard treatment following a methadone maintenance treatment program. The results show that multi‐family therapy with a reflecting team effectively reduces the addiction severity in several of the areas evaluated and noted that this effect is superior to standard treatment. The psychotherapy patients showed improvement in the areas of employment and social support; their drug use diminished and their psychiatric condition improved. At the same time, they needed a lower daily dose of methadone. In addition, the group undergoing standard treatment showed a noteworthy deterioration in their medical condition. Both groups showed a significant increase in their alcohol use. When applied to family treatments, the systemic‐constructivist approach by the reflecting team offers combined techniques that can help improve care for the families of patients with addiction problems.     

ALTERNATIVE P* MODELS OF INFLATION FORECASTS

This paper reevaluates the inflation forecast performance of M2-based P* models relative to other competing models over the period of 1970–96. Included in the comparative study are newly developed monetary aggregates, including M2+, MZM, and M2*, and direct treatments of velocity changes associated with recent developments in M2. Out-of-sample rolling-horizon forecast exercises suggest that the predictive accuracy of alternative P* model specifications relative to traditional inflation models is not robust to different subsamples. The switching forecast performance between money-based and output-based models across periods highlights the extent of structural instability in the inflation generating process. (JEL E3, E4, C2)     

Working with perpetrators of domestic violence to protect women and children: a partnership between Cheshire Probation Service and the NSPCC

Domestic violence is increasingly becoming recognized as a serious social problem with an enormous cost to society. While historically services have been established for women survivors, it is only recently that programmes designed to address men's violence towards women have become established, led predominantly within the criminal justice sector. This paper describes one such programme established in partnership between Cheshire Probation Service and the NSPCC. It identifies a number of factors considered to be essential in its successful implementation, including the importance of working in partnership, a sound and shared theoretical basis, the provision of a parallel support package for women and children and ongoing programme evaluation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of the statistical methods used to analyse toxicology studies

The Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry Toxicology Special Interest Group has collated and compared statistical analysis methods for a number of toxicology study types including general toxicology, genetic toxicology, safety pharmacology and carcinogenicity. In this paper, we present the study design, experimental units and analysis methods.     

Review of the statistical analysis of the dog telemetry study

In 2008, the PSI Toxicology Special Interest Group met to discuss the design and analysis of dog telemetry studies. The dog telemetry study is one component of the integrated cardiovascular assessment required by regulatory bodies. Although there are guidelines for these studies, little is said about the statistical analysis. With parameters of interest measured continually over time, in studies typically involving four dogs, the analysis is not straightforward. This has led to many different types of analysis being proposed in the literature, with many different methods applied within the pharmaceutical industry itself. This paper summarizes the PSI Toxicology group's discussions and recommendations around these issues.     

Psychometric properties of an adapted version of the parental sense of competence (PSOC) scale for Portuguese at‐risk parents

Parental sense of competence is one of the central dimensions targeted on psychosocial interventions aimed at supporting at‐risk families. Researchers and practitioners need reliable instruments to assess the parental role adapted for these families. Although the parental sense of competence (PSOC) scale has been frequently used to assess this construct, there is still no adapted version for Portuguese parents. In this study, the reliability, validity and factor structure of the PSOC scale is examined with a clinical sample of 146 mothers from at‐risk families receiving psychosocial interventions for family preservation from Child Protective Services. Results show that the Portuguese version of the PSOC measures three distinct constructs with acceptable psychometric properties: efficacy, dissatisfaction and controllability. As expected, the obtained factors were significantly and positively related to parenting alliance and family cohesion, and negatively associated with parenting stress. In sum, the proposed Portuguese version shows reliability and validity evidences to measure three relevant dimensions of parental self‐evaluation, and it constitutes a cost‐ and time‐effective instrument suited for at‐risk mothers.     

Controlling for initial endowment and experience in binary choice tasks

Learning literature typically assumes that initial attractions to choose each possible alternative are given exogenously. However, evidence shows that current behaviour depends on past experiences. In this paper, we design an experiment to control for the initial experience in decisions from experience by providing decision makers with an exogenous history (successful vs. unsuccessful) prior to initiating the decision task. Moreover, varying the initial endowment level for fixed histories we investigate the income effect. We are also interested in analysing the duration of both effects (history and income). We find significant treatment effects in the sense that more risk taking behaviour is associated with good histories and with low income levels. According to previous literature, our results confirm the transitory nature of both effects, although the duration of the income effect doubles the duration of the history effect. In the long run, risky choice behaviour converges across different treatments.