Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios

Flood risk is a function of both climate and human behavior, including individual and societal actions. For this reason, there is a need to incorporate both human and climatic components in models of flood risk. This study simulates behavioral influences on the evolution of community flood risk under different future climate scenarios using an agent-based model (ABM). The objective is to understand better the ways, sometimes unexpected, that human behavior, stochastic floods, and community interventions interact to influence the evolution of flood risk. One historic climate scenario and three future climate scenarios are simulated using a case study location in Fargo, North Dakota. Individual agents can mitigate flood risk via household mitigation or by moving, based on decision rules that consider risk perception and coping perception. The community can mitigate or disseminate information to reduce flood risk. Results show that agent behavior and community action have a significant impact on the evolution of flood risk under different climate scenarios. In all scenarios, individual and community action generally result in a decline in damages over time. In a lower flood risk scenario, the decline is primarily due to agent mitigation, while in a high flood risk scenario, community mitigation and agent relocation are primary drivers of the decline. Adaptive behaviors offset some of the increase in flood risk associated with climate change, and under an extreme climate scenario, our model indicates that many agents relocate.     

Cancer in older men: A gender-based review

Cancer is a common condition of the older male. Risk factors for developing a malignancy include genetic, environmental and life style features. Cancer epidemiology and prognosis differ depending on the age and gender of the population being studied. In the group of men older than 65 years, the most common malignant tumors are prostate, lung, colon and pancreatic cancer. Treatment options vary depending on the stage of the tumor when it is diagnosed, and the decision for therapeutic versus palliative interventions will depend upon the functional status, comorbidity and personal wishes of the patients.     

Social accountability as social movement outcome: Protests in a Chinese city

ABSTRACT

Social accountability is a concept that has been used much in development studies and democratic theory to study informal ways for civil society to achieve social change and hold governments accountable. Surprisingly, it has been far less used in social movement scholarship and we argue that social accountability, understood as a combination of answerability, legal claim attainment, and sanction, is a useful way to examine social movement outcomes in China. Social accountability directs the focus of research towards the target of protest and not only whether the protest resulted in policy changes or not. Based on field work in 2013–2015, this article examines four cases of social protests in the Chinese city of Hangzhou. In line with previous research we find that when citizen claims accord with government policies and protesters are well-organized, local authorities tend to accommodate the protesters’ claims. However, answerability and sanction do not always follow the same pattern. Answerability can be relatively high also when legal claims are unsuccessful. This means that cases that are commonly seen as unsuccessful protests because the legal demands were not accommodated may still result in partial social accountability. In addition to the presentation of original empirical findings, the study makes a theoretical contribution by linking the two research fields of social movement and social accountability, which will be of interest to a wider scholarly audience.     

A Test of an Adapted Multiple Domain Model in Predicting Sexual Behaviors Among Unmarried Young Adults in India

Theory-based, scientific research examining sexual behaviors of young adults is sparse in India, even though pre-marital sex among unmarried young people has been rising in recent years. At the same time, young people aged 15 to 24 are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS. This has been attributed in part to rising pre-marital sexual behaviors, coupled with a lack of sex education. The objective of this study was to advance an understanding of the determinants of sexual behavior among unmarried young adults in northern India. An adaptation of a comprehensive model of health behavior, the Multiple Domain Model, was employed to study the effects of environmental/cultural influences (parental and media), structural determinants (sex, socioeconomic status, age, caste, and place of residence), personality factors (sensation-seeking and impulsive decision making), gender role identity, psychosocial variables (attitudes, norms, and self-efficacy), contextual influences (relationship status and alcohol/drug use) and preparatory behaviors (frequency of being in sexual situations) on adolescents' sexual behaviors. Results of path analysis indicated that key predictors of ever having had vaginal sex included preparatory behaviors, masculine gender role identity, attitudes toward having sex and peer norms regarding sex. Implications of these findings for future research and intervention are discussed.     

The Impact of a Task Clarification and Feedback Intervention on Restaurant Service Quality

Customer service is a key aspect of restaurant success, as performance has shown a reliable positive relationship with customer retention. However, waitstaff performance may deteriorate, as income from gratuities is often unrelated to service quality. The present study investigated the effectiveness of an intervention consisting of task clarification and task-specific feedback on restaurant service tasks and observed the relationship between task completion and gratuities. Three adult women servers participated during their regular working shifts at a local dine-in restaurant. Initially customer service task completion was low (36% on average across participants). Performance increased immediately following the introduction of the intervention, and all participants maintained 87.5%–100% task completion. Correlational analyses found that gratuities were unrelated to performance and may thus pose a problem for performance maintenance. Implications relating to feedback and payment schedules are discussed.     

Analytic computation of nonparametric Marsan–Lengliné estimates for Hawkes point processes

In 2008, Marsan and Lengliné presented a nonparametric way to estimate the triggering function of a Hawkes process. Their method requires an iterative and computationally intensive procedure which ultimately produces only approximate maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) whose asymptotic properties are poorly understood. Here, we note a mathematical curiosity that allows one to compute, directly and extremely rapidly, exact MLEs of the nonparametric triggering function. The method here requires that the number q of intervals on which the nonparametric estimate is sought equals the number n of observed points. The resulting estimates have very high variance but may be smoothed to form more stable estimates. The performance and computational efficiency of the proposed method is verified in two disparate, highly challenging simulation scenarios: first to estimate the triggering functions, with simulation-based 95% confidence bands, for earthquakes and their aftershocks in Loma Prieta, California, and second, to characterise triggering in confirmed cases of plague in the United States over the last century. In both cases, the proposed estimator can be used to describe the rate of contagion of the processes in detail, and the computational efficiency of the estimator facilitates the construction of simulation-based confidence intervals.     

The Decline in Shared Collective Conscience as Found in the Shifting Norms and Values of Etiquette Manuals

In this article we address Emile Durkheim's theory that norms and values become more generalized and abstract in a society as it becomes more complex and differentiated. To test Durkheim's theory we examine etiquette manuals—the common texts that define normative manners and morals in American society. We perform a deductive content analysis on past and present etiquette manuals to understand what changes have occurred regarding shifting behavioral norms and values over time. Our findings suggest that a change has occurred in the presentation and language of contemporary etiquette manuals, reflecting a greater change in the normative order. We find—as Durkheim would expect—that three main shifts have occurred: a shift from specific to general expectations for behavior in social settings, a shift from demanding to more suggestive rules of behavior in social situations, and a weakening in the severity of sanctions for breaches of etiquette.     

Getting Older and Getting Happier with Work: An Information-Processing Explanation

Job attitudes and subjective well-being (SWB) have important relationships with one another. Moreover, job attitudes and, to an extent, SWB are related to chronological age. Owing to a ??graying?? workforce in industrialized countries, uncovering how age influences job attitudes is increasingly important. The present work explores the effects of cognitive-aging research on the item response process during attitude measurement. Research finds that older individuals attend selectively to positive affective experiences and weigh affective experiences more heavily during judgment than younger individuals. Based on cognitive-aging research, we propose an item-response process and hypothesize that chronological age results in a specific form of measurement non-equivalence. Our hypothesis is tested on 2 different samples of university employees, across 3 different job attitudes rooted in emotional experiences. Results indicate age-related measurement non-equivalence across all 3 attitudes such that older employees report more positive job attitudes than younger employees even when controlling for the latent attitude construct. Our findings suggest caution in interpreting of age-satisfaction correlations, focusing greater attention on understanding item response processes of older versus younger individuals and increased attention to job-related emotional experience for older employees.     

Asymptotic behavior of RA-estimates in autoregressive 2D processes

In this work we study the asymptotic behavior of a robust class of estimators of the coefficient of a AR-2D process. We establish the precise conditions for the consistency and asymptotic normality of the RA estimator. The AR-2D model has many applications in image modeling and statistical image processing, therefore the relevance of knowing such properties. The adequacy of the AR-2D model is analyzed with real images; we also show the impact of contamination and the capability of the RA estimator to produce useful results even in the presence of spurious data.     

A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

Reproduction constraints lead to some a priori information that may prove valuable in econo- metrically modeling inventory dynamics within the U.S. cattle herd. The distributed-lag models estimated for animal inventories suggest an implicit incorporation of the age distribution of the herd that is crucial to understanding the retention/culling (investment) decisions. The estimated equations are validated using post-sample observations that were withheld prior to estimation. The final-form dynamic equations have complex roots and protracted price and investment effects. The parameter estimates are used to calculate intermediate and long-run elasticities at the means of relevant variables.