合肥市农村老年人跌倒现状及影响因素分析

研究采用多阶段分层整群随机抽样的方法,对合肥市农村地区 950 名 60 岁及以上农村老年人进行问卷调查。结果显示,老年人过去 1 年的跌倒率为 26.84%,跌倒发生地点多数在室外（70.20%）,以上午居多（53.72%）。多因素Logistic 回归分析结果显示,女性、非独居、有抑郁症状、衰弱、患脑卒中的老年人具有高跌倒风险;80 岁及以上老年人跌倒风险更低。总体来看, 合肥市农村老年人跌倒率较高,老年人跌倒受多种因素影响,应针对重点人群,采取相应措施, 降低跌倒风险,提升农村老年人晚年生活质量和幸福感。     

从动态顺应看《李尔王》的三种译本

Jef Verschueren的语用综论观下的顺应论的动态性认为,语言选择过程的动态顺应可以从三个方面得到体现:时间顺应、语境的顺应和语言线性结构的灵活变化。以该理论对《李尔王》三个不同时期的译本进行分析,指出翻译标准应该被不断地重新阐释以顺应不同时间、不同语境和不同交际目的。     

司马迁与班固历史观的异同

比较司马迁与班固在历史观上的差异,对于研究《史记》、《汉书》乃至两汉历史有重要意义。以天人关系、封建正统史观、历史进化、经济观点为着眼点,并分析原因,力图找到学习两汉历史的门径。     

中日政治关系60年回眸与思考

新中国建立以来中日政治关系经历了从坚持斗争、以民促官,到恢复正常国家关系,乃至克服障碍实现两国关系健康发展的曲折历史.2008年,中日两国签署了<中日关于全面发展战略互重关系的联合声明>,这是两国关系发展的重要里程牌,也将成为今后中日两大民族维系健康稳定的国家关系准则.回眸与思考新中国建立以来60年中日政治关系,有助于推动中日关系全面、稳定、健康地向前发展.     

‘Pains of imprisonment’: narratives of the women partners and children of the incarcerated

This paper focuses on an important line of inquiry in contemporary criminal justice social work research: the collateral consequences of incarceration in the Chinese context. It gives an insight into the impact of incarceration on families from an insider's perspective. An analysis of interviews with 10 partners and 10 children yielded three major themes concerning the impact of imprisonment: the problems associated with the imprisonment of a family member, the coping strategies used and views on the importance of maintaining family ties. It is hoped that this study will give practical guidance regarding what should be done, and how, to reduce the negative consequences brought about by the absence (temporary or permanent) of the imprisoned on their families, including both their partners and vulnerable children.     

“西部中国”与“中国民族学”——《西部中国民族学文库》序

在中国民族分布格局中,少数民族多集中在西部。民族学在中国发展的过程中,其重要特色之一就是重视中国各民族社会,特别是少数民族社会、历史与文化的研究。中国多民族社会的现实为民族学提供了广阔的田野,但该学科在加强实证研究以扩大其社会影响力的同时,不要忽略学理上的支撑,需要在实证研究中体现学科规范。     

挠性转子动不平衡量的极大似然估计

本文提出利用模态参数识别技术进行挠性转子动平衡的方法。为了计及平衡过程中测试数据的误差,对动不平衡量采用极大似然估计。本文给出计算机模拟的几个实例以论证此种方法,并提出加速收敛的措施。计算结果表明此法效果是鸿意的。     

深圳市统计信息系统建设的理论与方法

文章从深圳市政府统计信息系统建设的现状出发,探讨了在现代信息技术、网络通信技术、数据库技术条件下统计信息系统建设的理论与方法,为我国各级政府统计信息系统的建设提供了参考依据.     

A lower bound for the centred L 2-discrepancy on combined designs under the asymmetric factorials

The foldover is a useful technique in the construction of two-level factorial designs for follow-up experiments. To search an optimal foldover plans is an important issue. In this paper, for a set of asymmetric fractional factorials such as the original designs, a lower bound for centred L ₂-discrepancy of combined designs under a general foldover plan is obtained, which can be used as a benchmark for searching optimal foldover plans. All of our results are the extended ones of Ou et al. [Lower bounds of various discrepancies on combined designs, Metrika 74 (2011), pp. 109–119] for symmetric designs to asymmetric designs. Moreover, it also provides a theoretical justification for optimal foldover plans in terms of uniformity criterion.     

Point estimation after early stopping in a repeated measures trial

When the individual measurements are statistically independent, the maximum likelihood estimator calculated at the end of a sequential procedure overestimates the underlying effect. There are many clinical trials in which we are interested in comparing changes in responses between two treatment groups sequentially. Lee and DeMets (1991, JASA 86, 757–762) proposed a group sequential method for comparing rates of change when a response variable is measured for eaeh patient at successive follow-up visits. They assumed that the response follows the linear mixed effects model and derived the asymptotic joint distribution of the sequentially computed statistics. In this article, we consider the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), the median unbiased estimator (MUE) and the midpoint of a 100(1-α)% confidence interval as point estimators for the rate of change in the linear mixed effects model, and investigate their properties by Monte Carlo simulation.