中国明代白银货币政策与商品竞争力分析

16世纪中叶,由于新航路的开辟,世界市场形成,白银成为世界货币。中国由于是白银贫矿国,在明代之前一直实施铜铸币和纸币政策,只是在明代中叶之后对白银货币实施了放任的政策。由于中国人多地少,劳动力十分廉价,这样以白银为计价单位所表示的商品价格极为低廉。欧洲由于人均土地资源高于中国,人均薪资也高于中国,而且白银供应极为充沛,在一般日用品价格上,远远高于中国。因而,在一般商品价格竞争上,总体不敌中国。当时美洲和日本盛产白银,是世界白银的价格洼地,欧洲又实施了较为自由的贸易政策。这样控制白银的欧洲、日本和掌握世界最低廉商品的中国,相互之间都有极为旺盛的需求,于是,世界市场很快就形成了美洲、日本白银与中国商品交换的格局。     

当前我国社会组织培育和发展中的问题与对策

努力培育和发展社会组织,尽快形成党委领导、政府负责、社会协同、公众参与的公共服务和公共管理新格局,以便提供更多更好的公共服务和公共物品,使人民群众能够在更高水平上实现安居乐业,是我们面临的新历史使命.归纳当前我国社会组织培育和发展工作中形成的新认识,揭示我国社会组织培育和发展中现存的主要问题并探讨解决问题的对策,可为我国社会组织培育和发展工作的有效展开提供借鉴.     

众语喧哗时代的平民化“交响乐”——解读电影《辛亥革命》

为纪念辛亥革命100周年而拍摄的电影《辛亥革命》,—改传统主旋律电影的套路,意识形态日趋淡化,叙事视角以小见大,审美权重多元均衡。这表明,我国主旋律电影其宏观意识形态和历史观点一直呈现出进步的态势。     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.     

An Extended Single‐index Model with Missing Response at Random

An extended single‐index model is considered when responses are missing at random. A three‐step estimation procedure is developed to define an estimator for the single‐index parameter vector by a joint estimating equation. The proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. An algorithm for computing this estimator is proposed. This algorithm only involves one‐dimensional nonparametric smoothers, thereby avoiding the data sparsity problem caused by high model dimensionality. Some simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators.     

Quadratic Approximation via the SCAD Penalty with a Diverging Number of Parameters

The high-dimensional data arises in diverse fields of sciences, engineering and humanities. Variable selection plays an important role in dealing with high dimensional statistical modelling. In this article, we study the variable selection of quadratic approximation via the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty with a diverging number of parameters. We provide a unified method to select variables and estimate parameters for various of high dimensional models. Under appropriate conditions and with a proper regularization parameter, we show that the estimator has consistency and sparsity, and the estimators of nonzero coefficients enjoy the asymptotic normality as they would have if the zero coefficients were known in advance. In addition, under some mild conditions, we can obtain the global solution of the penalized objective function with the SCAD penalty. Numerical studies and a real data analysis are carried out to confirm the performance of the proposed method.     

来自大洋彼岸的“抗艾战士”

把健康带给更多的人，这是谢尔的希望。对他来说，诊治病人只是—方面：医务人员艾滋病教育培训、医学教育改革让他看到了更多的希望。     

河北省高校周边文化圈建设研究

建设河北特色文化大省，实现文化大发展、大繁荣，是时代的课题。高校和地方文化各自独立发展，缺乏竞合的现状是制约河北文化发展的一个难题。高校周边文化圈建设是解决这一难题、建设文化特色大省的有效途径，河北省政府牵头，协调高校，以地方文化为主体，采取以点带面的形式，逐步实现文化圈的建设。     

新时代中学生核心素养培育的实然困境与应然路径

核心素养培育是落实立德树人根本任务的关键环节,对促进处于青春期的中学生成长成才具有至关重要的作用.立足新时代教育形势,需要再次重塑核心素养概念的应然图景,重新梳理与厘定新时代视域下核心素养的基本特征与内容,以求还原核心素养概念的真实样貌.回归现实,社会的多变使中学生核心素养培育面临来自新媒体、新环境与新手段的冲击与挑战,新媒体的显现是对传统核心素养培育方式的再次冲击,新环境的融入是对教师队伍内在功底的重大考验,新手段的选用是对中学生核心素养培育的重新要求.为此,为有效提升中学生核心素养培育工作效能,应以新媒体、新环境与新手段为切入点,创新中学生核心素养培育的教学方式,构建中学生核心素养培育的教学体系及打造中学生核心素养培育的生态空间,以求实现中学生核心素养培育的真正回归.     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.