Nonparametric Trend Estimation for Periodic Autoregressive Time Series

A periodically stationary time series has seasonal variances. A local linear trend estimation is proposed to accommodate unequal variances. A comparison of this proposed estimator with the estimator commonly used for a stationary time series is provided. The optimal bandwidth selection for this new trend estimator is discussed.     

A Bayesian Meta-Modeling Approach for Gaussian Stochastic Process Models Using a Non Informative Prior

In this article, an efficient Bayesian meta-modeling approach is proposed for Gaussian stochastic process models in computer experiments. Different prior densities and particularly, a non informative hyper prior have been employed on the parameters involved in the correlation matrix. And the estimation of related parameters is obtained by the expectation-maximization algorithm. Compared with the recent work of Li and Sudjianto (2005 Li , R. , Sudjianto , A. ( 2005 ). Analysis of computer experiments using penalized likelihood in Kriging models . Technometrics 47 : 111 – 120 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the proposed approach is not only of higher prediction accuracy but also of lower computational cost, due to the utilization of the non informative prior and the absence of tuning parameters. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach yields state-of-the-art performance.     

A likelihood ratio test for goodness‐of‐fit of recessive and dominant models for case–control studies

Testing goodness‐of‐fit of commonly used genetic models is of critical importance in many applications including association studies and testing for departure from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Case–control design has become widely used in population genetics and genetic epidemiology, thus it is of interest to develop powerful goodness‐of‐fit tests for genetic models using case–control data. This paper develops a likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing recessive and dominant models for case–control studies. The LRT statistic has a closed‐form formula with a simple $\chi^{2}(1)$ null asymptotic distribution, thus its implementation is easy even for genome‐wide association studies. Moreover, it has the same power and optimality as when the disease prevalence is known in the population. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 341–352; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

现代化与现代女性人格的塑造

现代化归根到底是现代人的心理和人格的外化。在中国社会走向现代化的过程中 ,沉重的传统伦理道德仍然阻碍着女性的真正解放 ,甚至根植于女性人格心理。因此 ,在现代文明大潮中 ,中国女性摒弃旧传统的心灵负载 ,塑造现代女性人格 ,不仅对女性的进步与发展 ,而且对中国现代化将产生深远影响。     

南京市基层卫生人力资源的配置与公平性研究

目的：探讨南京市社区卫生人力资源配置的发展情况和公平性,为重塑新医改背景下的社区卫生服务机构定位提供政策建议。方法：以南京市2011—2014年城市社区卫生工作年报和《南京市卫生统计年鉴》为基础,从社区卫生服务人力数量、学历、职称、医护比、全科医生数量等方面分析南京市社区卫生人力配置发展情况,并运用基尼系数法对南京市社区卫生人力资源配置的公平性进行评估。结果：南京市社区卫生机构卫技人员专业素质不高,医护比例不合理,全科医生数量少且有逐年减少趋势,人力资源按人口分布相对公平,各行政区之间有差异。结论：创新社区卫生人才培养模式,采取有效措施增加社区卫生服务机构的护士数量,健全全科医生人才的培养和培训制度。     

英汉借形缩略语生成的认知阐释

缩略语的生成一般遵守避歧原则,但英汉语中均存在不少违反避歧原则刻意借用已有语言形式生成的借形缩略语.按照齐夫法则,借形缩略语通过形式整合体现了说话人的经济.从认知语言学的角度看,借形缩略语是基于部分代整体的转喻机制生成,它们很好地契合了用突显、易感知、易记忆、易辨认的部分代替整体的转喻建构机制.此外,从认知语用学的角度看,借形缩略语还有助于人们以相对较小的信息加工努力获得最大的语用效果回报.     

用MATLAB语言对PWM调制波的计算机仿真

阐明在ＭＡＴＬＡＢ语言环境下,运用ＳＩＭＵＬＩＮＫ工具对ＰＷＭ 脉宽调制进行计算机仿真分析,是研究、开发ＰＷＭ 的最简捷、最经济的方法之一。它在教研、高新产品的开发等方面具有重要性     

乡土中国与家园重建——钱理群先生访谈录

邵宁宁:您那天说到重建家园的问题,话题好像从汶川地震说起.实际上,这也是我最关心的话题.我自己做文学研究,一个中心话题就是现代文学中的家园问题.     

清末上海城市交通事故与社会舆论——以《申报》相关报道为线索

城市新式交通工具的普及,在方便出行、延伸出行距离、扩大人们交往范围的同时,也带来了难以避免的交通事故。以人力车、马车为代表的非机动车辆作为城市主要交通工具的时期,由它们所引发的交通事故导致的对人身和财产的伤害,一时间为广大市民和社会舆论重视和关注,但舆论关注的重点、倾向以及两群体本身之间有明显的不同。     

学习动机及文化认同与语用能力发展的相关性

以英语专业学生为对象,采用问卷调查和访谈的方法,考察学习动机和文化认同对学习者目的语语用能力发展产生的影响。结果显示：学习者的工具型动机与语用能力呈微弱正相关态势,融入型动机与语用能力呈显著正相关态势;学习者对目的语的文化认同与语用行为表现呈微弱正相关态势,而母语文化认同与语用行为表现呈显著负相关态势。即,学习者较低的融入型动机和对母语文化的强烈认同会在一定程度上制约学习者对语用规范的学习,并影响其语用行为表现。