关于中国基本养老保险空账问题的研究

经过多年的改革,我国逐步建立了“统账结合”基本养老保险制度。该制度既吸收了传统型的养老保险制度的优点,又借鉴了个人账户模式的长处；在强调保障的同时又兼顾效率。但是由于存在改革以前就已经退休的“老人”和改革前就已经参加工作的“中人”,他们的个人账户实际余额或者为零或者严重不足。但是仍然要给他们足额支付养老金。这使得养老金个人账户存在严重的“空账运转”问题。为此,应从个人缴费来入手探讨解决空帐问题办法。     

Exploration Deep Into the Artistic Realm of Peace——He Yu’s Oil Paintings

The basic intention of realism oil painting is to present as closely as possible the original form of each object without bias or personal opinion, using pictorial simulation techniques such as points, lines,zones and colors.In order to reproduce the object’s original form or to simulate it as faithfully as he can,the     

论领导干部对"三个代表"思想的实践

领导干部实践江泽民"三个代表"的思想,必须时刻考虑有否"能力"与"资格"的前提问题,必须坚定理想信念以铸牢精神支柱,必须正己修身立德以示垂范,党建的加强与改进可在干部队伍的整合中提供强大的组织与制度的支持.     

嫩模现象：一种新兴青年文化

嫩模现象是个横空出世的新兴青年文化现象,亦是香港普及文化的重要一课。讨论嫩模现象的由来,以及在众声喧哗中隐含的各种文化政治,例如名人概念、青年概念、女性身体等,能检视社会主流论述对此等文化概念的意义转变和规训等。     

Half-sample variance estimation

This paper studies an alternative to the jackknife variance estimator, the half-sample variance estimator. Both theoretical and Monte Carlo comparisons between the half-sample variance estimator and the jackknife variance estimator indicate that the former is better in some situations.     

Parallel tempering for dynamic generalized linear models

ABSTRACT

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used for statistical inference. The methods are time-consuming due to time-vary. To resolve these problems, parallel tempering (PT), as a parallel MCMC method, is tried, for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs), as well as the several optimal properties of our proposed method. In PT, two or more samples are drawn at the same time, and samples can exchange information with each other. We also present some simulations of the DGLMs in the case and provide two applications of Poisson-type DGLMs in financial research.     

Inference for Time Series Regression Models With Weakly Dependent and Heteroscedastic Errors

Motivated by the need to assess the significance of the trend in some macroeconomic series, this article considers inference of a parameter in parametric trend functions when the errors exhibit certain degrees of nonstationarity with changing unconditional variances. We adopt the recently developed self-normalized approach to avoid the difficulty involved in the estimation of the asymptotic variance of the ordinary least-square estimator. The limiting distribution of the self-normalized quantity is nonpivotal but can be consistently approximated by using the wild bootstrap, which is not consistent in general without studentization. Numerical simulation demonstrates favorable coverage properties of the proposed method in comparison with alternative ones. The U.S. nominal wages series is analyzed to illustrate the finite sample performance. Some technical details are included in the online supplemental material.     

Model Averaging for Prediction With Fragmentary Data

ABSTRACT

One main challenge for statistical prediction with data from multiple sources is that not all the associated covariate data are available for many sampled subjects. Consequently, we need new statistical methodology to handle this type of “fragmentary data” that has become more and more popular in recent years. In this article, we propose a novel method based on the frequentist model averaging that fits some candidate models using all available covariate data. The weights in model averaging are selected by delete-one cross-validation based on the data from complete cases. The optimality of the selected weights is rigorously proved under some conditions. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is confirmed by simulation studies. An example for personal income prediction based on real data from a leading e-community of wealth management in China is also presented for illustration.     

大理白族稻作祭仪及其变迁

白族是历史悠久的稻作农耕民族,在白族传统的农业生产中存在着形式各异、内涵丰富的稻作祭仪。伴随着时代的发展,稻作祭仪不可避免地发生了文化变迁。文章在论述了白族稻作祭仪的变迁原因和变迁形式的基础上。指出了面对变迁怎样使民族优秀传统文化得以传承的途径。