A Bayesian discovery procedure

Summary.  We discuss a Bayesian discovery procedure for multiple-comparison problems. We show that, under a coherent decision theoretic framework, a loss function combining true positive and false positive counts leads to a decision rule that is based on a threshold of the posterior probability of the alternative. Under a semiparametric model for the data, we show that the Bayes rule can be approximated by the optimal discovery procedure, which was recently introduced by Storey. Improving the approximation leads us to a Bayesian discovery procedure, which exploits the multiple shrinkage in clusters that are implied by the assumed non-parametric model. We compare the Bayesian discovery procedure and the optimal discovery procedure estimates in a simple simulation study and in an assessment of differential gene expression based on microarray data from tumour samples. We extend the setting of the optimal discovery procedure by discussing modifications of the loss function that lead to different single-thresholding statistics. Finally, we provide an application of the previous arguments to dependent (spatial) data.     

Quasi-minimax estimation in the general linear regression model

This paper is mainly concerned with minimax estimation in the general linear regression model y=Xβ+ε$y=X\beta +\epsilon$ under ellipsoidal restrictions on the parameter space and quadratic loss function. We confine ourselves to estimators that are linear in the response vector y  . The minimax estimators of the regression coefficient β$\beta$ are derived under homogeneous condition and heterogeneous condition, respectively. Furthermore, these obtained estimators are the ridge-type estimators and mean dispersion error (MDE) superior to the best linear unbiased estimator b=(X^′W^-1X)^-1X^′W^-1y$b=(X^{\prime }{W}^{-1}X{)}^{-1}{X}^{\prime }{W}^{-1}y$ under some conditions.     

注塑制品残余应力的分析与计算

注塑制品已广泛应用于生活、生产等各个方面，注塑制品的残余应力是决定制品形状、表面质量、使用性能的主要因素。注塑制品的残余应力有两个来源：一个是流动残余应力。一个是热残余应力。结合熔体在注塑过程中的粘弹性变化特点。分析了注塑制品残余应力的产生原因和影响因素，给出了残余应力的计算方法。研究残余应力的产生机理对改善成型加工工艺条件、提高产品质量、降低废品率具有重要意义。     

信贷歧视、青年创业群体与互保信贷模式

通过构建一个基于互保制度不存在情况下的银行信贷选择的理论模型,揭露银行对于青年创业者的信贷偏向.进而建立一个基于随机组合情况下的互保信贷模型,发现随机组合的互保机制反而不如普通信贷模式.运用此理论模型重点分析欺诈不存在和存在的互保信贷机制,得出如下的结论:创业者欺诈意愿不存在的情况下,银行给优质小组和混合小组的借贷成本应该让他们项目的经济利润近似于零,违约连带还款额接近投资项目的总收益.创业者欺诈意愿存在的情况下,在具有完善的合作约束和激励约束的前提下,银行应该对任一创业群体互保小组一视同仁,给予相同的贷款利率.同时,一旦小组成员违约,银行对承担责任的创业者抽贷行为不应该出于惩罚目的.     

超额货币与实体经济:基于广东经济数据的实证分析

在已有研究基础上,采用货币滞存法对广东2003—2011年间的超额货币情况进行测算,进而运用平稳性分析、向量误差修正模型、冲击响应等方法对超额货币和实体经济进行实证分析。结果表明,从长期看广东省超额货币与实体经济存在反向的协整关系,当超额货币上升(下降)1%时,实体经济会下降(上升)0.6%左右,因此,应当关注超额货币对实体经济产生的长短期效应。     

邵雍先天易学流传考论

邵雍学术思想以先天易学为主题展开,后世对邵雍学术思想的解读则偏重于其象数易学,而对于其内在的新儒学思想的关注则相对不足。同时,学者对其易学思想的解读亦是偏重象数方面,有失于一偏之嫌。又加之邵雍易学自身所存在的问题,从而一步步加重其流传之困难,其对于新儒学的奠基作用也难以彰显。     

文化体制改革情境下的文化产业立法构想

The academic community now increasingly appeals for and researches on optimizing Culture Industry Legislation in China,but scholars are debating on some important issues. The paper w ill be focused on the necessity,purpose of adjustment,feasibility,design and some other aw areness issues and propose some relevant view points. ( 1) Culture Industry Legislation has many draw - backs and lags behind the grow th,so w e should accelerate the progress and promote the development of the legal system of the culture industry,( 2) the purpose of legislation is to manage and regulate social relations in the culture     

论明清江南婚嫁论财风尚及其成因

明清是中国传统社会向近代转型的过渡时期。随着商品经济的发展、外来文化的冲击,人们的价值观念、婚姻观念也因之发生嬗变。此种现象在江南地区尤其明显。婚嫁论财风尚的流衍与扩布,便是此种社会变革在婚姻领域内的反映。文章厘清了明中期至清代的江南区域婚嫁论财风尚的变迁轨迹;指出此风尚的产生除了经济因素是其根本动因外,江南社会传统的奢靡之风也是不可忽视的因素;此外,江南士大夫在婚礼消费上树异于人,富商大贾则求同于人,而普通民众则盲目模仿从众等等,也是婚嫁论财风尚积淀生成的社会心理原因。     

内涵与特征：土家族的傩文化

土家族的傩文化是一种内涵丰富、特色鲜明的文化体系.土家族的傩文化在不断地演进与转换的历史进程中,始终保存着原始宗教信仰的印记,并表现出多层次的社会功能.     

从彰显到消失:集体主义时期的家庭劳动(1949-1966)

集体主义时期,为追求经济超速发展实行高积累低消费"以生产为中心"的发展策略。国家有意识地把性别化分工编织进大生产体制,由妇女无酬承担起绝大部分的再生产职责。国家对于妇女的家内劳动并非完全"看不见",而是努力对家务劳动进行理论化,以确立家务劳动及其承担者在社会主义生产体制中的位置。女工、农妇、职工家属/家属工三个妇女群体与生产的关系决定了国家对于她们家内劳动的不同态度以及她们的政治地位。