Life table techniques for multiple-cause mortality

A lethal defect-wear model of mortality is presented which rationalizes the assumption of independent risks when death may be due to more than a single condition, Under this model, it is shown how competing risk theory and standard categorical data methods may be merged in a unified approach to the analysis of multiple-cause mortality data. The methodology is used to analyze linkages among diseases in the mortality data and evaluate the implication of the elimination of patterns of morbid states for multiple-cause mortality data from deaths occurring in 1969 in North Carolina.     

Some demographic consequences of changing cohort fertility patterns: An investigation using the Gompertz function

Abstract In this paper are formulated some convenient summary measures of fertility patterns. These measures, which are based on the Gompertz function, are total lifetime fertility, median age of mothers at childbirth, and inter-quartile range of age of mothers at childbirth. Estimates of the parameters of Gompertz function, based on Canadian data, are used to derive, for each of the summary measures, values which reflect historical fertility experience, and thus give an impression about the range of realistic values for these measures. A simple model of demographic activity which includes the Gompertz function is also considered, and this model is used in computer simulation experiments to determine the macro-demographic effects of changes in each of the three summary measures.     

Male sterilization as a contraceptive method in Canada an empirical study

Abstract In 1851-61, the crude birth rate in Canada was 45. In 1972, it was approximately 16. Not only have birth rates decreased but the average family size has declined from five or six children per family at the turn of the century to two or three children in the 1970'S. In addition, women are completing their childbearing at an earlier age. 50 years ago, it was not uncommon for a woman to have a child in her late thirties or early forties. To-day, this is a relatively rare event. In fact, it is estimated that approximately 80% of all families have the number of children desired before the woman is 30 years of age. This new demographic pattern creates an important and crucial situation for Canadian couples. At age 30, with all the desired children and 15 more years of potential childbearing ahead of them, what can they do to prevent the occurrence of additional pregnancies?     

The historical calendar as a method of estimating age: The experience of the Moroccan multi-purpose sample survey of 1961-63

Abstract In censuses and surveys in most African countries it has become the practice to estimate informants' age by the method of the historical calendar. This involves an attempt to relate a remembered historical event, occurring during the subject's childhood, with his age at the time. This paper attempts a first evaluation of the method with particular reference to the 1961-63 multi-round survey in rural Morocco. It is shown that in practice the method is highly complex and easily misunderstood by interviewers and respondents. An attempt to lay down a precise procedure by means of a very detailed questionnaire appeared to yield at best only marginally more accurate results than the simpler procedure used in an earlier round. The more complex questionnaire did, however, introduce new patterns of misuse by the interviewer. There was evidence that the historical calendar gave somewhat better data than eye estimates, but results were highly defective for both methods. It is clear that the method is far from perfect. Interviewer training and supervision remain the key to accurate age determination. If the potential benefits of the complex historical calendar method are to be realized, training and supervision need to be even more thorough than where simpler methods are used.     

Social indicators, 1976: A critique

Social Indicators 1976 is reviewed from the point of view of its conceptual framework, data presentation, analysis and interpretation, data quality, variable disaggregation and quality of life measures.