Neo-natal mortality in South Asia: The special role of tetanus

Summary First-year mortality in rural Uttar Pradesh is characterized by a predominance (60 per cent) of deaths during the first month of life, of which 66 per cent are reported to be due to tetanus. This pattern is not typical of the historical experience of many developed countries and the current experience of some less developed countries where post-neo-natal mortality predominates. To examine this phenomenon, two causal models of neo-natal mortality (one for tetanus and one for all other diseases) are developed and tested using retrospective survey data from 2000 couples living in rural Uttar Pradesh. Neo-natal tetanus mortality is found to be primarily a function of opportunities for exposure to the disease (e.g. lack of antiseptic birth practices, ownership of large animals) rather than of socio-economic status or demographic variables. The importance of examining neo-natal mortality by cause, and the shortcomings inherent in making inferences from the historical experiences of Western nations are emphasized.     

Gender difference in physical performance, body composition and dietary intake in homebound elders

Considering that the most vulnerable subgroup of elders for poor nutritional status and functional decline is the increasing number of homebound women, we examined gender differences in physical performance, body composition, and dietary intake in a randomly recruited sample of 345 homebound elders (81% women, 48% black, > 65% income < $750/month). After controlling for demographic and health-related factors, the results from multivariate analyses indicated that women were more likely than men to report the lowest nutrient intake and were 2.9 times more likely to be at the worst level of overall physical performance. These results suggest a heightened vulnerability of homebound older women to poor physical performance, low dietary intake, and increased Body Mass Index (BMI). Prospective research is now needed to examine the interrelationships between physical performance, dietary intake, and body composition among the growing homebound older population.     

Welfare reform and changes in the economic well-being of children*

Since the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program in late-1996, welfare rolls have declined by more than half. This paper explores whether improvements in the economic well-being of children have accompanied this dramatic reduction in welfare participation. Further, we examine the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background. We analyze data from the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) over the years 1988 through 2001. Specifically, we link data for families with children who are interviewed in adjacent years and determine whether their economic circumstances either improved or deteriorated. We use two alternative approaches to address this general issue: a variety of regression models and a difference-in-differences methodology. These approaches provide consistent answers. In a bivariate framework TANF is associated with higher incomes; but this association becomes insignificant in the presence of business cycle controls. We also determine that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level. Poor children with parents who do not have a high school degree are significantly worse off in the TANF era, relative to the era prior to welfare reform, than are poor children of more educated parents.     

Compromised birth outcomes and infant mortality among racial and ethnic groups

Demography - Research based on hospital records demonstrates that many births classified as normal according to conventional demographic measurement are intrauterine growth-retarded (IUGR) when...     

Migration expectancy revisited: Results for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

Planners in a variety of situations require an improved understanding of migration trends if services and products that adequately meet constituent needs are to be provided. This note focuses on changes in migration expectancy over three decades in the context of the planning function. Using the CPS one-year migration question for the periods 1975–1976, 1980–1981, and 1987–1991, and the work of Wilber (1963) and Long (1973) as historical benchmarks, migration expectancy is found to have fallen since the earlier studies. Longer-distance migration (between counties and between states) has remained relatively constant over the same period so that these types of moves now account for a larger proportion of total residential mobility. The results are discussed in the context of their value to individuals and organizations who seek a better understanding of demographically-driven demand from services and products.This article is based on a paper presented at the Southern Demographic Association annual meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 22 October 1993.     

Immigrant skills and ethnic spillovers

This paper investigates the hypothesis that ethnicity has spillover effects on the human capital accumulation process. It extends previous research by documenting the extent to which the relative importance of parental inputs and ethnic spillovers in the intergenerational transmission of skills differs both within and across immigrant and U.S.-born ethnic groups. Using data drawn from the General Social Surveys, the study documents that the second and third generations (i.e., the children and grandchildren of immigrants) experience relatively more rapid economic advancement than do other generations, and that ethnic spillovers play a stronger role in households which are at the extremes of the skill distribution.Professor of Economics, University of California at San Diego, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research. This research was supported by grants from the Russell Sage Foundation and the National Science Foundation (Grant no. SES-9121538).     

Retirement decisions in a discrete choice model and implications for the government budget The case of Belgium

The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of the retirement decision of the elderly in Belgium. The model used is an extension of the participation model. It offers three choices: full-time work, part-time work and retirement. A CES-utility function is maximised over this opportunity set. Estimation was done on two separate samples for men and women. Using the estimation results, the financial consequences of some policy changes in the social security system are calculated.The author is indebted to A. Decoster, E. Schokkaert, P. Van Rompuy and two anonymous referees for carefully reading and commenting this paper. The remaining errors are of course entirely the author's responsibility.     

The one child certificate in Hebei province,China: Acceptance and consequence, 1979–1988

As part of its One Child Policy, China developed the one child certificate which offered numerous benefits to couples who had one child and promised to have no more. Using data from the Two-per-Thousand National Fertility Survey, this study describes the level of certificate acceptance in Hebei province from 1979 to 1988 and analyzes socioeconomic, cultural and early family formation factors affecting certificate acceptance as well as the role of certificate acceptance on transition to second parity. During the past decade, the level of initial certificate acceptance was 22.6 percent. This estimate is much lower than earlier published rates because it utilizes the concept of women at risk. Public resistance to the One Child Policy is evident in declining acceptance from 26.0 percent during the first five years of the policy to 11.3 percent during the 1984–1988 period. Women's response to the certificate has been influenced by the woman's status as reflected in education and occupation as well as cultural traditions, particularly son preference. The one child certificate, however, independently depresses subsequent fertility. This research indicates that efforts to understand fertility decline in China must simultaneously acknowledge the role of government family planning programs as well as socioeconomic and cultural factors.Revision of paper presented at the American Sociological Association Meeting, 1990.     

The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP

Given that savings behaviour and worker productivity have strong life-cycle components and given that demographic profiles vary across countries, population age structure should be linked to differences in levels of economic development. In this paper, we measure the economic importance of age structure variation for the global economy. We find that demographic maturation has been associated with nearly half of the evolution of global per capita GDP since 1960. We also find that age structure differences can account for just over half of the variation in worldwide per capita GDP (i.e. the lack of sigma convergence) observed since 1960.