Saving and consumption patterns of the elderly

The paper provides an empirical analysis of saving and consumption choices of the elderly in Germany, based on the German income and expenditure surveys 1978 and 1983. Main feature of these data is the large sample size making it possible to analyze saving and consumption patterns of the very old (aged 75 and above).The observed age-consumption profiles are very different from those predicted by the pure life-cycle theory. Although wealth is declining between age 60 and 70, it increases again after 70, such that the very old have the highest savings rates among all age groups and accumulate wealth rather than decumulate it. These profiles are not confounded by cohort effects and mortality differences. The corresponding expenditure data suggest the following explanation: due to the generous German pension system and the almost complete coverage of health expenses by the mandatory health insurance in Germany, the declining consumption n very old age cannot exhaust the annuity income of the elderly such that wealth is being accumulated in old age.Research in this paper was supported by the National Institute on Aging, grant no. 3 PO1 AG05842-01. I appreciate the helpful comments by Doug Bernheim, Angus Deaton, Daniel McFadden, Jonathan Skinner, Konrad 'Stahl and David Wise, and two anonymous referees. I am indebted to Hermann Buslei and Johannes Velling who provided most valuable and able assistance.     

Multistate life-tables and regression models

"A survey is given of the use of modern statistical techniques in event history analysis, and in particular in the study of multi-state life-tables in demography. Emphasis is placed on the interplay between partial likelihood and nonparametric maximum likelihood based methods, a) when analysing semi-Markov models or models with repeated spells, and b) in frailty models for unobservable heterogeneity."     

"The responsibility to inform, the power to act": a conference for New England college newspaper editors on the role of the campus press in addressing substance use issues.

College newspapers are a powerful but underutilized medium for educating students on health issues, including those related to drug and alcohol use on campus. Editors of these publications are in a position to wield significant influence among their readers. In addition to communicating factual information about the prevalence and impact of substance use among college students, editors can use the press to advocate changes in students' attitudes and behaviors and in college or community policies that affect substance use. A pilot conference was held to help New England college newspaper editors perceive the importance of their role in educating their peers about substance use and other health-related issues, and to offer concrete suggestions as to how they can incorporate these topics into an "activist" campus press.     

Youth's recreation and drug sensations: is there a relationship?

Adolescents' social behaviors remain a mystery to parks and recreation providers. Adolescence is a "high-risk" time for all youth in terms of experimenting with potentially health-compromising behavior, whether alcohol, drugs, or sex. Most of these antisocial behaviors occur during adolescents' leisure time. These inferences gave impetus to this research effort. The study was designed to ascertain information on adolescents' preferences for pleasure: drugs or recreation. Data were collected from a sample of 100 high school students from a medium-sized college town, and 100 students from a rural town in Florida. Findings revealed four statistically significant associations in the motives or pleasures sought in recreation and in drug behaviors: "enhancement of popularity," "provision of a means for self-discovery," "achievement of personal goal," and means to rebel against parents. In reference to the latter motive, findings revealed that neither drugs nor recreation were used to rebel against parents. Findings also provide documentation of the value of recreation in insulating adolescents against many of the stressors of contemporary life.     

Conference on international manpower flows and foreign investment in the Asian region

This is a report from a conference held in Tokyo, Japan, in 1991 on the economic aspects of labor mobility in Asia. The authors briefly describe selected papers given at the conference and outline conference topics. A list of participants is included. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

The future of refugee flows and policies

"The number of forced migrants...is estimated today to exceed 40 million [worldwide]. The changed international climate of the 1990s...has shifted the focus from the asylum and resettlement countries to the countries of origin: there is today a greater willingness to intervene in other countries' affairs either to avert the creation of new flows of focused migrants or to assist internally displaced populations, and there is the expectation of large-scale voluntary returns of refugees in asylum. This article discusses these and other policy issues concerning forced migration in this new international environment."