The mixed effects of income upon successive births may explain the convergence phenomenon

Summary This paper finds that an increment of income has a more positive (less negative) effect on the probability of a family having another child when it consists of relatively few children than of relatively many children. That is, within a group of people whose income is increased, the increase may be expected to influence the average family with no children or one child to increase family size, and to influence the average family that would otherwise have many children to have fewer. To put it another way, increased income reduces the variance of family size across families. This provides an explanation for the 'convergence' of American families to two to four children. The basis for these conclusions is a cross-sectional analysis of white women in the U.S. Census of 1960.     

Langevin incremental mixture importance sampling

This work proposes a novel method through which local information about the target density can be used to construct an efficient importance sampler. The backbone of the proposed method is the incremental mixture importance sampling (IMIS) algorithm of Raftery and Bao (Biometrics 66(4):1162–1173, 2010), which builds a mixture importance distribution incrementally, by positioning new mixture components where the importance density lacks mass, relative to the target. The key innovation proposed here is to construct the mean vectors and covariance matrices of the mixture components by numerically solving certain differential equations, whose solution depends on the local shape of the target log-density. The new sampler has a number of advantages: (a) it provides an extremely parsimonious parametrization of the mixture importance density, whose configuration effectively depends only on the shape of the target and on a single free parameter representing pseudo-time; (b) it scales well with the dimensionality of the target; (c) it can deal with targets that are not log-concave. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated on two synthetic non-Gaussian densities, one being defined on up to eighty dimensions, and on a Bayesian logistic regression model, using the Sonar dataset. The Julia code implementing the importance sampler proposed here can be found at https://github.com/mfasiolo/LIMIS.     

France and the Unknown Second Generation: Preliminary Results on Social Mobility

The growing concern about the future of the offspring of immigrants in France has prompted the rise of a “second generation question.” Access of “new second generations” (i.e., those born from the waves of immigration of the 1950s and 1960s) to the job market and their visibility in social and cultural life have challenged the “French model of integration.” Moreover, the ebbing of social mobility in the France of the 1970s led to a process of social downgrading which may affect significantly the second generation due to their social background and the persistence of ethnic and racial discrimination. It is thus important to investigate what kind of social mobility is actually experienced by people of immigrant ancestry, and what could hinder their mobility. This article uses the data from a new survey, the Enquête Histoire Familiale (family history survey) conducted in 1999 and based on 380,000 individuals, which analyzes the positions of second generations of Turkish, Moroccan and Portuguese origin. We argue that they follow different paths: a reproduction of the positions of the first generation; a successful social mobility through education; or a mobility hindered by discrimination.     

Différence et similitude: le marché du travail dans 1'esprit des adolescents et des adolescentes

This article recalls that the variance in the aspirations of young people and in their visions of the labour market is partically unexplained by socio-demographic variables. It argues that the young possess a common vision which goes beyond the routine of the social categories to which they belong. It suggests that the analysis which permits one to arrive at this result could serve to enrich the results of quantitative analysis. The article observes that the division of opinion among the young witnesses a great diversity in consciousness. But it shows that this heterogeneity could hide a deep structure, subtle but constraining, which assures not only the diversity of their knowledge but also its fluidity and homogeneity.
Cet article rappelle que la variance des aspirations des jeunes ou de leurs visions du marché du travail est partiellement inexpliquée par les variables socio-démographiques. II constate que les jeunes possedènt une vision commune qui dé le cadre des catégories sociales auxquelles ils appartiennent. II laisse entendre que l'analyse qui permet d'en arriver à ce constat pourrait servir à enrichir les résultats des analyses quantitatives. L'article observe que la répartition des opinions des jeunes témoigne d'une grande diversité des consciences. Mais il réalise que cette hétérogénéité pourrait cacher une structure profonde, souple mais limitative, qui assurerait aussi bien la diversité des consciences que leur fluidité et leur homogénéité.     

The Foundations of Democracy: U.S. Foundation Support for Civil Society in South Africa, 1988–96

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - This paper analyzes the grantmaking to South African civil society of six major U.S. foundations between 1988 and 1996. It...     

Economic Well-Being in U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas

In recent years there has been increased interest from economists and policy makers to measure a nation’s economic well-being. This paper extends this development to US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). An economic well-being index is constructed using indicators of income, education, crime, health and pollution. The analysis allows comparison of a MSA with another and with itself over time. The index is not highly correlated with real gross domestic product per capita and therefore adds value to the discussion of economic well-being in MSAs. However, it is shown that the index may violate social choice principles thereby reducing its usefulness.